high risk Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Booooooooo, although I'm AM north of 66 and 50 . But seriously, I wasn't even expecting any snow here, but even we could start out as a little snow, nothing super great like up north. This one looks like the reverse trend we always have. Honestly, I just threw in that "outside the DC Beltway" disclaimer to match details of the GFS para output that are worthless at this range. I can't figure out why it has snow on either side of DC at the start with sleet over DC, but I'd think that DC is still in the game for at least a minor initial thump, and with the trends you note, maybe we can aim even a bit higher. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Midrange has been overdoing (sometimes substantially) precip/amping. If that's the case again, a weaker storm would be an even better outcome imo. We'll see how it goes. My gut says thurs wont be the juicy deluge as depicted right now. Still going to be a mess but more of a good mess and less of a bad mess is discussion worthy at this time. It would. I see the possibility. I’m praying temps don’t surge too much during the rain Tuesday and destroy the snow pack up here. That does have some bearing on the outcome Thursday too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GEFS weaker and easter with LP in the Ohio Valley.Happy Easter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: GEFS weaker and easter with LP in the Ohio Valley. Holler at us in the southern md/lower eastern shore sub if there starts to be appreciable winter weather threat south of Baltimore Corner, otherwise hibernation mode starts until the @Lowershoresadness storm shows up on guidance again at the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Even if half is sleet...ill take this and call it a February 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 @Ji UKMet keeps DC below freezing for the entire storm. Main sfc reflection is along the coast instead of the OH valley. First of the more reliable guidance (though UKmet does have some wacky solutions out in time it seems) to really do that, so I'm skeptical. Like you said probably more sleet than snow but 850s don't look too bad. Probably a warm layer above that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 @Ji UKMet keeps DC below freezing for the entire storm. Main sfc reflection is along the coast instead of the OH valley. First of the more reliable guidance (though UKmet does have some wacky solutions out in time it seems) to really do that, so I'm skeptical. Like you said probably more sleet than snow but 850s don't look too bad. Probably a warm layer above that.There was a cluster of eps that did that. Today euro run is most important of my life 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. Focus on Thursday. Come on man 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Ukmet is so different. Wow. Just did a deeper dive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Even if half is sleet...ill take this and call it a February Keep an eye on that sneaky wave around the 22/23. After that don’t assume everything cuts north the end of Feb into March if the NAO does go neg again. As wavelengths shorten it gets really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO regardless of the pac pattern. It might not be a cold pattern but odds would favor some systems sliding east under the block. For places like leesburg and Winchester and up here that works even in a not truly cold pattern. Historically that has worked in the cities too. There were plenty of late season snowstorms where temps the day before were very mild in the past. But I honestly don’t know about 95 anymore. I need to see some “marginal” boundary temp setups break their way just once to believe they even still can anymore. It’s been a long time since we saw a setup like that work for DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 What is the deal for Tuesday? All rain at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. In the last 24 hours, you have become worse than @Ji 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The GFS is pumping up the SE ridge again in the long range. Just in time to ruin our chances in late February. Op run at range. Dont care. Remember what I said yesterday about details at range. Even with the SE ridge going about as ape as I think is possible (seasonal trend says it will be less) the op gfs snows on central PA 3 times from Feb 22 on! At those ranges that’s the same as a hit. An op at those leads cannot pin down the boundary within that level of geographic detail. So long as the NAO is negative again we will have a chance for waves to get suppressed. Don’t take my word for it go back and look at the pacific in March 2018. It was PUTRID. Didn’t matter. Same in some other March cold snowy Nina’s. It’s really hard for waves to cut with a -NAO in March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday. Details I don't understand aside there is definitely support for this starting with a period of snow. Interesting stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs with a not insignificant improvement for Thursday. Can you please continue hating on this storm... Seems like it was working 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 35 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: In the last 24 hours, you have become worse than @Ji Pump and dump that's how we roll in the Mid-Atlantic Southeast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Pump and dump that's how we roll in the Mid-Atlantic Southeast. Reminds me of $GME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 An inch of QPF on the Euro for Tuesday. That plus the ice melt is gonna make for some soggy ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: An inch of QPF on the Euro for Tuesday. That plus the ice melt is gonna make for some soggy ground. Maybe even flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro flatter in front so far. Precip pushed a bit SE from 0z too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Maybe even flooding. Flood watches we excel at! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro at 96 is a nice looking panel....snow for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Snow at 96 and definitely colder. Snow line moved south from 0z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Euro back w the front end snow. Temps in the 20s w a NE flow near the surface at 12z Thur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Is this really happening? A reverse (good) trend? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Snow at 96 and definitely colder. Snow line moved south from 0zBring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Is this really happening? A reverse (good) trend? Psu storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Goes to sleet for all at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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