ravensrule Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Anyweather said: I have a hernia, too. My guess is, yours is a lot smaller than mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Noticing that with every run of the NAM from 0z to now heights are lowered and there's a subtle SE push with each run. Noticed it on the GFS. Could be nothing. Could be me wishcasting. Likely There are some positive trends. I’ve just seen and been burned so many times by this type of setup that it’s hard to get excited. But I’ll bite. Why not. I’ll join the weenie crusade. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS coming in more suppressed. But I think we should just give up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I noticed the TPV hanging around longer in SE Canada. That should help some. Been a trend over the past several runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Noticing that with every run of the NAM from 0z to now heights are lowered and there's a subtle SE push with each run. Noticed it on the GFS. Could be nothing. Could be me wishcasting. Likely Don’t you read? It’s time to just give up. Or are you weeining out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are some positive trends. I’ve just seen and been burned so many times by this type of setup that it’s hard to get excited. But I’ll bite. Why not. I’ll join the weenie crusade. Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS coming in more suppressed. But I think we should just give up . Would be a decent event esp for n/w areas and if a bit of snow to ice is acceptable for folks. But weenie out and all, so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gfs starts as snow. Has it shown that before? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is where we somehow need the seasonal trends to bring these things southeast, but the fine print in the weenie handbook says that trends only work when they aren’t in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs starts as snow. Has it shown that before? No. GFS is....<checks notes> trending to the Euro. Whhaaaat? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Imagine if this was to go like our supposed two wave storm last week...where it kept getting suppressed south and we back our way into a snow or mainly snow/ice storm. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: In order to get into the proper weenie mindset and overwhelm the cold hard facts, I would need to see some hope for my yard. There isn't any lol. I've found that when powdery snow is in short supply (or no supply) a couple 8 balls of powdery premium peruvian blow fixes everything and then some. 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 CMC also following the trend of colder and a little move SE 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 And, shocker to see that the gfs has at least temporarily dropped the 50s and 60s for late week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Imagine if this was to go like our supposed two wave storm last week...where it kept getting suppressed south and we back our way into a snow or mainly snow/ice storm. Jokes aside, while too far north for a sweet outcome, there is decent compressed flow/confluence to our north showing up and it's beefing up the surface hp pressing the cad wedge. Still crap flow in the mids and that usually = less snow/more sleet than modeled by gametime. But we're pretty far out in time. Fair to say that an impactful event is becoming more likely as we move thru time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I thought GFS didn’t model CAD well ? If so, we may be in business. 12Z GFS says the temperature at Winchester at 7:00 a.m. Thursday is 23. At 10:00 a.m., 24. Still 24 at 1:00 p.m. Only 25 at 4:00 p.m., 26 at 7:00 p.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WB GFS 12Z clown map v. 6Z. Trending the right way so far today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS, PARA, and CMC all going towards the euro’sh solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I thought GFS didn’t model CAD well ? If so, we may be in business. 12Z GFSsays the temperature at Winchester at 7:00 a.m. Thursday is 23. At 10:00 a.m., 24. Still 24 at 1:00 p.m. Only 25 at 4:00 p.m., 26 at 7:00 p.m. Para supposedly handles cad better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Look at 10m winds on the gfs @ hr102 (18z thurs). STILL ne surface flow. Click previous run 5+ times and see how it's trending. No hint of southerly flow now. NE winds all the way down to the carolina's. Strenghtening confluence is doing some dirty work. Euro's version obviously even more stout. Interesting. And only d4 now. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm going to focus on the GFS para entirely, because the original schedule would have made this the operational by now.... (The delay had nothing to do with model skill; some adjustments were needed to make it run a little faster to avoid delays for downstream systems). While it still turns everyone over to ZR/IP/RA by the end of the day 1) it comes in with an impressive thump of snow for those north of I-66 (VA) and 50 (MD) and outside the DC Beltway 2) has over 1" of liquid for the northern half of the area 3) keeps areas west and northwest of I-95 below freezing for most of the day Verbatim, it's a winter storm for most, and the northern areas (and maybe as far south as Baltimore/Howard/Montgomery/Loudoun) are still in the game for 4-6" of snow before a transition. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Too lazy to go back and look, but I remember someone surmising that the crappier the Mon/Tues event becomes, the better chance of something better for Thursday. Well, the Monday/Tuesday deal looks pretty crappy, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Para supposedly handles cad better. correct. Still not great but a clear step forward. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: correct. Still not great but a clear step forward. Even with the old gfs known biases with cad, the 12z run shows impressive staying power if you ignore verbatim temps and focus on surface winds. I didnt realize how much it has shifted in just the last 5-8 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 As depicted on 12z, para has temps in the 20s w a surface flow out of the NE w a nice thump of snow to mix. Long ways out, but trackable . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I noticed the TPV hanging around longer in SE Canada. That should help some. Been a trend over the past several runs of the GFS We need a combo of that PV hanging around longer/stronger/further southwest plus a less amplified trough to our west. The tpv trend has been going our way. The trough ehh. That’s why we see the start of the storm trending colder but still ending up warm. If we were to see the trough less amplified and shift east some also that’s how we could get a cold storm start to finish. Keep the wave under us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Even with the old gfs known biases with cad, the 12z run shows impressive staying power if you ignore verbatim temps and focus on surface winds. I didnt realize how much it has shifted in just the last 5-8 runs. That's a good point. When the ops GFS shows a decent cold air damming signal, you have to take notice, as it loves to mix things out quickly and switch the winds to a southerly component. Both versions of the GFS (and other guidance) have a signal of a weak low trying to form along the coast - that setup with a dying low coming in from the west and a weak system forming to our east or southeast (has to be weak to not crank up the onshore flow) usually works very well for damming. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: We need a combo of that PV hanging around longer/stronger/further southwest plus a less amplified trough to our west. The tpv trend has been going our way. The trough ehh. That’s why we see the start of the storm trending colder but still ending up warm. If we were to see the trough less amplified and shift east some also that’s how we could get a cold storm start to finish. Keep the wave under us. Midrange has been overdoing (sometimes substantially) precip/amping. If that's the case again, a weaker storm would be an even better outcome imo. We'll see how it goes. My gut says thurs wont be the juicy deluge as depicted right now. Still going to be a mess but more of a good mess and less of a bad mess is discussion worthy at this time. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GEFS weaker and easter with LP in the Ohio Valley. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 19 minutes ago, high risk said: I'm going to focus on the GFS para entirely, because the original schedule would have made this the operational by now.... (The delay had nothing to do with model skill; some adjustments were needed to make it run a little faster to avoid delays for downstream systems). While it still turns everyone over to ZR/IP/RA by the end of the day 1) it comes in with an impressive thump of snow for those north of I-66 (VA) and 50 (MD) and outside the DC Beltway 2) has over 1" of liquid for the northern half of the area 3) keeps areas west and northwest of I-95 below freezing for most of the day Verbatim, it's a winter storm for most, and the northern areas (and maybe as far south as Baltimore/Howard/Montgomery/Loudoun) are still in the game for 4-6" of snow before a transition. Booooooooo, although I'm AM north of 66 and 50 . But seriously, I wasn't even expecting any snow here, but even we could start out as a little snow, nothing super great like up north. This one looks like the reverse trend we always have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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