WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 Icon could be the first signs of a good trend for us. Hopefully Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Lol. Love the optimism here. I’m rooting for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Noticing that with every run of the NAM from 0z to now heights are lowered and there's a subtle SE push with each run. Noticed it on the GFS. Could be nothing. Could be me wishcasting. Likely 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Dude, it's the weekend. A long one at that. Stop being grounded in logic, facts, and smarts and weenie out a little. We can deal with the cold wet reality when it gets here. For now it's all about digital blues no matter how silly they may seem In order to get into the proper weenie mindset and overwhelm the cold hard facts, I would need to see some hope for my yard. There isn't any lol. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Still looks like we could be set up for a decent period heading into March, IF the blocking verifies and is even a bit stronger. Pretty good indication of enough confluence where one or more waves ejecting eastward could take a favorable track. If the blocking doesn't materialize or is weaker, the SE ridge will end up bulging northward with the advertised EPAC look. I have something bulging northward but it isn’t the SE ridge. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Clueless said: Lol. Love the optimism here. I’m rooting for you all. He promised he wouldn't hit us anymore. He swore this time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have something bulging northward but it isn’t the SE ridge. Projecting? Protruding? Never mind, they wouldn't have worked either. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have something bulging northward but it isn’t the SE ridge. Well, it is Valentine's Day... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I have something bulging northward but it isn’t the SE ridge. I have a hernia, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Anyweather said: I have a hernia, too. My guess is, yours is a lot smaller than mine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Noticing that with every run of the NAM from 0z to now heights are lowered and there's a subtle SE push with each run. Noticed it on the GFS. Could be nothing. Could be me wishcasting. Likely There are some positive trends. I’ve just seen and been burned so many times by this type of setup that it’s hard to get excited. But I’ll bite. Why not. I’ll join the weenie crusade. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS coming in more suppressed. But I think we should just give up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I noticed the TPV hanging around longer in SE Canada. That should help some. Been a trend over the past several runs of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Noticing that with every run of the NAM from 0z to now heights are lowered and there's a subtle SE push with each run. Noticed it on the GFS. Could be nothing. Could be me wishcasting. Likely Don’t you read? It’s time to just give up. Or are you weeining out? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2021 Author Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are some positive trends. I’ve just seen and been burned so many times by this type of setup that it’s hard to get excited. But I’ll bite. Why not. I’ll join the weenie crusade. Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS coming in more suppressed. But I think we should just give up . Would be a decent event esp for n/w areas and if a bit of snow to ice is acceptable for folks. But weenie out and all, so..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Gfs starts as snow. Has it shown that before? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 This is where we somehow need the seasonal trends to bring these things southeast, but the fine print in the weenie handbook says that trends only work when they aren’t in your favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, Ji said: Gfs starts as snow. Has it shown that before? No. GFS is....<checks notes> trending to the Euro. Whhaaaat? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Imagine if this was to go like our supposed two wave storm last week...where it kept getting suppressed south and we back our way into a snow or mainly snow/ice storm. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 24 minutes ago, CAPE said: In order to get into the proper weenie mindset and overwhelm the cold hard facts, I would need to see some hope for my yard. There isn't any lol. I've found that when powdery snow is in short supply (or no supply) a couple 8 balls of powdery premium peruvian blow fixes everything and then some. 3 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 CMC also following the trend of colder and a little move SE 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 And, shocker to see that the gfs has at least temporarily dropped the 50s and 60s for late week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Imagine if this was to go like our supposed two wave storm last week...where it kept getting suppressed south and we back our way into a snow or mainly snow/ice storm. Jokes aside, while too far north for a sweet outcome, there is decent compressed flow/confluence to our north showing up and it's beefing up the surface hp pressing the cad wedge. Still crap flow in the mids and that usually = less snow/more sleet than modeled by gametime. But we're pretty far out in time. Fair to say that an impactful event is becoming more likely as we move thru time. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I thought GFS didn’t model CAD well ? If so, we may be in business. 12Z GFS says the temperature at Winchester at 7:00 a.m. Thursday is 23. At 10:00 a.m., 24. Still 24 at 1:00 p.m. Only 25 at 4:00 p.m., 26 at 7:00 p.m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 WB GFS 12Z clown map v. 6Z. Trending the right way so far today. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 GFS, PARA, and CMC all going towards the euro’sh solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, WVclimo said: I thought GFS didn’t model CAD well ? If so, we may be in business. 12Z GFSsays the temperature at Winchester at 7:00 a.m. Thursday is 23. At 10:00 a.m., 24. Still 24 at 1:00 p.m. Only 25 at 4:00 p.m., 26 at 7:00 p.m. Para supposedly handles cad better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Look at 10m winds on the gfs @ hr102 (18z thurs). STILL ne surface flow. Click previous run 5+ times and see how it's trending. No hint of southerly flow now. NE winds all the way down to the carolina's. Strenghtening confluence is doing some dirty work. Euro's version obviously even more stout. Interesting. And only d4 now. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I'm going to focus on the GFS para entirely, because the original schedule would have made this the operational by now.... (The delay had nothing to do with model skill; some adjustments were needed to make it run a little faster to avoid delays for downstream systems). While it still turns everyone over to ZR/IP/RA by the end of the day 1) it comes in with an impressive thump of snow for those north of I-66 (VA) and 50 (MD) and outside the DC Beltway 2) has over 1" of liquid for the northern half of the area 3) keeps areas west and northwest of I-95 below freezing for most of the day Verbatim, it's a winter storm for most, and the northern areas (and maybe as far south as Baltimore/Howard/Montgomery/Loudoun) are still in the game for 4-6" of snow before a transition. 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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