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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I think it was actually slightly better at 850. And the HP over the top was definitely better. Not that it matters. Better isnt good enough to stop the screaming upper level winds out of Central America. 

I thought it was an illusion. There was a bit of a lead wave this run that activated precip along the fgen to the northeast of the main low. But that’s a detail that could be a total model figment. The actual track was way worse and the main precip shield was rain. We also got into the warm sector more. All the things that are more reliable about the big picture were worse. The bit of snow was from a fluke detail unlikely to be real.  And 0z had the same amount of snow. Maybe an inch less but it was from the actual storm not a fluke lead feature. 
 

This is what I care about. Maybe I’m crazy (definitely am) but this is what I see...I don’t care about comparing identical times because there are timing differences with the speed of the wave run to run. What matters is competing the low at its critical pass.
This was the low at its more critical point 0z.  I superimposed the low and 850 isotherm.

D78A81B1-0B19-4733-BAD8-6F324F11304C.thumb.jpeg.933914c9caa1f7978a53e6206b1eacde.jpeg
that was really close to a significant frozen (snow/sleet) event NW of 95.  

12z

This isn’t close at all. It’s a big rainstorm and it’s not close. 
52E4B000-5771-4FD4-86EA-839AFA079B92.thumb.jpeg.f7f4cdc62d3ec3fe60515cb71663bf9d.jpeg

if all you focus on is that little lead wave feature that is highly unlikely to be there next run and look at the clown maps it was ok but I’m looking at the meat of the storm. 

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:
18Z NAM is a straight up rainstorm. If shows freezing rain during this frame. Ummm no.
sfct.us_ma.png&key=c696340025ff10a8b67b55fdc4005dd179a5e20d69037dd7c4e0dd4fd7d27b22

A far cry from the 18 and rain 48 hours ago smh

I’ll give you this. The NAM at 84 is a decent setup for Thursday. Compare the h5 NAM at 84 with the gfs.  You can see how much more suppressive it is. Tpv further west and a flat flow across the top. It’s probably just the NAM being NAM at 84 but it’s been kicking ass and taking names even at range lately so with noting it at least. 

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Psuhoffman, how do you like your burgers and how could it be better?

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

The issue here is the onions.  The position is all wrong here.  As illustrated below, if you move the onion (red arrow) dow under the lettuce, it would be in a more ideal position.  Now the fries, which are lacking strong ketchup would need to be repositioned AND ketchup added.  The problem with the tomatoes is that there needs to be more.  

 

IMG_0660.jpg

 The cheese is less than ideal and probably should be cheddar?  We need to move the cheese, and probably the patty UNDER the lettuce and above the layer of mayo.   Now the issue here is that the combination of the mayo and juice from the burger could create a weakness in the underlying bun.   That bun would need to be fortified with not just  enriched, and thus enhanced, wheat flour, but a solid combination of water, sugar, yeast, vegetable oil (canola and/or soy), vegetable proteins (pea, potato, faba bean), sunflower oil, corn dextrose, corn maltodextrin, corn starch, salt,  BUT ALSO wheat gluten, dough conditioners (monoglycerides, datem,  ascorbic acid, azodicarbonamide, mono- and diglycerides, ethoxylatedmonoglycerides, monocalcium phosphate, enzymes, guar gum, calcium peroxide), sorbic acid, calcium propionate and/or sodium propionate (preservatives), soy lecithin.  The soy lecithin is the key and it has to be in position to hold together under the weight of the patty, onion, cheese lettuce and any other condiments.  This is vital.

 

Now personally, I would remove the lettuce (the blue X) because it bumps the burger in height unnecessarily and you’d have to basically unhinge your fuckng jaw like a snake would if eating a tiger or small horse.

Basically that burger would need a LOT of things to go right for the burger to be optimal for my tastes.

 

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13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shut up Chuck

For real. There’s actually quite a bit of guidance hinting at a reloading of the pattern in 2 weeks. I’m over the doom or gloom nonsense. Wooo, it iced and rained instead of snowed because a storm tracked west of us.... winter must be over. Give me a break. It ain’t over til it’s over.

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Regarding Thursday, we all know that the GFS is terrible with cold air damming, and the evaluation period for the GFS para found that it was notably better (still not great).    Assuming some skill with the synoptic details, we can see evidence that Thursday will be colder here, especially in the morning hours:

 

sfct-3.us_ma.thumb.png.f03138ca764c47ab1c856b9e2d1b8f83.png

     Not saying that this will be a snowstorm, but the chance of another ice/sleet event is probably higher than we realize right now, especially if the precip arrives in the overnight hours Wednesday.

sfct-1.us_ma.png

 

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