Miss Pixee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, fujiwara79 said: if the arctic air dumps into the south central states before trudging east, then yes that's how it works. not all arctic outbreaks do that. some directly target the northeast. but we haven't had one of those in years. look at 2004 in new england. one of the coldest winters ever in new england. those arctic blasts targeted them and didn't dump into the south central states at all. True. Being off the ocean does moderate the extreme stuff. Still cold as a mofo, though. Last week the arctic outbreak over the midwest was so cold they ran out of colors on the map...the purple turned into gray, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain? Can you post a gif of the trend those always work out when you do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain? I could careless about snowpack. I like snow on models and when its falling. After that...i dont care either way. I loved the feb 2006 event even though it melted in 5 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Ji I was finally able to look at the run. It SUCKED. I didn’t look at the precip or pretty colors. None of those details matter at 140 hours out. This matters. This was 0z (which was slightly worse then the runs before even) That was a hopeful progression. That looked like a possible frozen event here. This is 12z thats puke. That looks like a big ass rain event. I didn’t look at the precip. I don’t care what it shows. Qpf and precip type at range is incredibly inaccurate and will adjust to climo for storm progression 90% of the time. That 12z progression was a major step towards rain from 0z regardless of what the pretty clown colors say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It's gonna snow y'all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro trended colder Tuesday though. Isn’t that far from snow/sleet up here. But the euro has been running too far south all winter so having the model with the biggest south bias lately as the only one that’s even close isn’t likely a winning formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Always love that inch or two we get before it changes to 55F and heavy rain. Gives the media something to overhype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's gonna snow y'all Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Ji sneakily euro trended colder for Tuesday the last 24 hours. One or two more bumps and we sneak into some snow. So you know what that means. Bet everything you have on a north trend next run!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Always love that inch or two we get before it changes to 55F and heavy rain. Gives the media something to overhype. Tony Pann needs to feed his fan nerds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that. Now 2016-17 and 17-18 was a 2-year...does that happen with every nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @leesburg 04 just for you. Last 24 hours for Thursday/Friday. Look at that 2” line retreat!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Last year was a nino. What’s it matter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 How much for Philly-delphia? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last year was a nino. What’s it matter? That where my brain was about to go next...what is ENSO anymore? Lol BUT....can't you blame last year on the AO? Certainly no ENSO could do any good with +++++++... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 If we want to grasp at real straws this pattern isn’t that bad for going into March. Yea the pac is puke but in March it’s less important actually. This is very close. Get slightly more NAO and suddenly systems will cut west to east under the block. You can see the eastern ridge is mostly flat already there. It’s a typical error from a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How much for Philly-delphia? I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 just for you. Last 24 hours for Thursday/Friday. Look at that 2” line retreat!!! They’ve been money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player. Oh dude....fix that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Psu....eps at 12z trended stronger with high and more west than 12s yesterday for Thursday. Not over yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: They’ve been money Yep. This was within 72 hours of the last Weds/Thurs event. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 37 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. I think it was actually slightly better at 850. And the HP over the top was definitely better. Not that it matters. Better isnt good enough to stop the screaming upper level winds out of Central America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 31 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That where my brain was about to go next...what is ENSO anymore? Lol BUT....can't you blame last year on the AO? Certainly no ENSO could do any good with +++++++... Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea and a coastal hits us anyway. Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is nearly a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. The randomness of how we snow will always contain a large % of unpredictable randomness. For these reasons, long range to me is nothing more than an exercise in understanding how much is and isnt working in our favor. Ground truth cares little about either 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Think of it like this. Enso is macro. It can have a pronounced effect on the winter period as a whole. Snow is micro. We get hit sometimes in the dumbest setups and epically fail with great ones no matter what enso is doing. I look at enso as an opportunity multiplier (or subtractor) in a general sense but wx is waaaaay too complicated to make broad lump statements. On paper, 2013-15 is a disaster from a macro setup. But it snowed its eyeballs out anyway. It would be dumb to root for that persistent upper level pattern if you like snow. But it ended up one of the most active back to back winters in decades for snow. AO is macro too. We always want a neg AO but we've had plenty of acceptable storms with a neutral or + AO and wasted more than a few long duration -AO periods because other things got in the way. Things that nobody can possibly predict until it's really close in time. Just watch the cruel irony of wx as we waste what appeared to be beautiful pattern at first and then when the pattern breaks apart into hippo diarrhea but a coastal hits us anyway. Long range is nothing more than an educated guess at the opportunity multiplier or subtractor. Ground truth of snowfall is a real time sport. They can't be combined because it's impossible on nearly every level. Before you came back I had mentioned in a long range thread that I am seriously starting to wonder if Enso means anything at all in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. After everything I've witnessed since making an arguably poor decision in returning, I have a hard time caring what anything says beyond 48 hours anymore other than noting that precipitation is still in the forecast. This is def not a year for long track or even medium track anything. Too much mental effort that loses 90% of its value just 6-12 hours after the exercise. I'm here for just the lolz again 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18Z NAM is a straight up rainstorm. If shows freezing rain during this frame. Ummm no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Before you came back I had mentioned in a long range thread that I am seriously starting to wonder if Enso means anything at all in our area. I personally think it depends on the month. Seems like Februaries are where this is the most prevalent. I need to find where the stat was mentioned but it referenced how there wasn't a single La Nina February in ~40 years that featured anything other than a +NAO. The Atlantic seemed to do the best to buck that trend but not only has this winter not acted like a Nina, but it's also failed in that department given that the NAO has completely relaxed and we still have 15 days in the month to go lol. The February temperature anomalies for those Ninas are pretty torcheriffic on our side of the country too.. but if you also consider the last few Nino Februaries (Feb 2020, 2019, 2016), then yeah maybe it's a bigger problem than just silly ENSO stuff lol. At the very least as others have mentioned, March has stayed pretty neutral in terms of correlating to ENSOs, and in fact regardless of ENSO we're in quite the surplus of snowfall this past decade in terms of March snowfall. Maybe that shows how the hostility of our new base state can also work to line things up better in our favor when that hostility aspect doesn't matter as much? I guess I'm rambling at this point but yeah you do have a point in the relation of ENSO nowadays, maybe more so away from the metros but it's still notable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts