HighStakes Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Verbatim we get a couple inches of snow, then zr then heavy a cold rain. Temps get into low 40's even here by 18z friday before the front sweeps through. The run was warmer overall. Slow death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain This would be a win for us imo Ji. It's a long ways away and future changes will keep coming. Any run that shows the knife edge within a reasonable distance is a net positive. Who knows what we'll be looking at in a few short days. Real cold is nearby. Lots of precip is overhead. I'm not jumping to any conclusions yet. We've trended the wrong way a lot last few weeks. Now that it's ugly instead in the mid range, maybe... just maybe the trend works the other way. After what we've all experienced since mid/late Jan, I'm def not spiking any footballs before the short range starts agreeing... and even then.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Better HP this run vs. 0Z. 1037 vs. 1034. It helps in the upper levels just enough to snow us at the start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Better HP this run vs. 0Z. 1037 vs. 1034. It helps in the upper levels just enough to snow us at the start. Let’s feed our H some steroids and pump it up to a 1040 next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Ji said: 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer? Thursday was never shown as a pure snowstorm and you know that. Euro shows snow to wintry mix to rain About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 17 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Verbatim we get a couple inches of snow, then zr then heavy a cold rain. Temps get into low 40's even here by 18z friday before the front sweeps through. The run was warmer overall. Slow death That sounds like what I was afraid it showed. I know some might see some blue over them to start and celebrate but I don’t buy medium range guidance that shows that with a cutting system and the mid level flow is all from the south. Imo that’s unlikely to work out. I want to see signs the wave is suppressed south of us. That would be meaningful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Better HP this run vs. 0Z. 1037 vs. 1034. It helps in the upper levels just enough to snow us at the start. The trend is the trend but verbatim its like a 2 to 5 " thump from South to north then atleast 6 to 12 hours of icing for areas NW of the metros.longer for the M/D crew . Would be a fairly sig winter storm for areas N+W. But the trend hasn't been great for anything next week so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, fujiwara79 said: if the arctic air dumps into the south central states before trudging east, then yes that's how it works. not all arctic outbreaks do that. some directly target the northeast. but we haven't had one of those in years. look at 2004 in new england. one of the coldest winters ever in new england. those arctic blasts targeted them and didn't dump into the south central states at all. True. Being off the ocean does moderate the extreme stuff. Still cold as a mofo, though. Last week the arctic outbreak over the midwest was so cold they ran out of colors on the map...the purple turned into gray, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain? Can you post a gif of the trend those always work out when you do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 About 36 hours ago the euro was mostly a snow to dryslot event for us and kept the snow pack destroying warm sector to our southeast. There was no rain. It’s trended warmer every run since. The eps also. Had the max snow just NW of 95 a couple days ago but shifted up into central pa last night. I’m not that interested in a minor front end snowfall that’s immediately washed away by 45 degree rain. Those storms are depressing. I want to see signs the storm stays southeast of us. Also...in case you haven’t noticed models at range are always way too optimistic on front end frozen with a west track system. It can work but it’s rare. Models show that a lot at range but it typically is a mirage and the mid level warm layer comes blasting in before the heavy precip arrives. Without a suppressed flow it hard to prevent that. So I was asking doc the euro make a real trend towards a meaningful frozen event or did it continue trending towards a minor front end frozen before the main storm cuts way west and we get rain? I could careless about snowpack. I like snow on models and when its falling. After that...i dont care either way. I loved the feb 2006 event even though it melted in 5 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Ji I was finally able to look at the run. It SUCKED. I didn’t look at the precip or pretty colors. None of those details matter at 140 hours out. This matters. This was 0z (which was slightly worse then the runs before even) That was a hopeful progression. That looked like a possible frozen event here. This is 12z thats puke. That looks like a big ass rain event. I didn’t look at the precip. I don’t care what it shows. Qpf and precip type at range is incredibly inaccurate and will adjust to climo for storm progression 90% of the time. That 12z progression was a major step towards rain from 0z regardless of what the pretty clown colors say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 It's gonna snow y'all 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Euro trended colder Tuesday though. Isn’t that far from snow/sleet up here. But the euro has been running too far south all winter so having the model with the biggest south bias lately as the only one that’s even close isn’t likely a winning formula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Always love that inch or two we get before it changes to 55F and heavy rain. Gives the media something to overhype. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: It's gonna snow y'all Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Ji sneakily euro trended colder for Tuesday the last 24 hours. One or two more bumps and we sneak into some snow. So you know what that means. Bet everything you have on a north trend next run!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... Lol. Nothings ever over. Crazy stuff happens. But I hate when people grasp for straws for false comfort. The 12z euro was way worse then 0z. Maybe not on the clown maps but in every way that actually matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Amped said: Always love that inch or two we get before it changes to 55F and heavy rain. Gives the media something to overhype. Tony Pann needs to feed his fan nerds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Psu just said it's ovah. See ya next year or the one after that or the... Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Who knows. ENSO forecast is to trend neutral for Spring and Summer. Flip a coin beyond that. Now 2016-17 and 17-18 was a 2-year...does that happen with every nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @leesburg 04 just for you. Last 24 hours for Thursday/Friday. Look at that 2” line retreat!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Isn't next year forecasted to be a nina too? Lol Last year was a nino. What’s it matter? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 How much for Philly-delphia? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last year was a nino. What’s it matter? That where my brain was about to go next...what is ENSO anymore? Lol BUT....can't you blame last year on the AO? Certainly no ENSO could do any good with +++++++... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 If we want to grasp at real straws this pattern isn’t that bad for going into March. Yea the pac is puke but in March it’s less important actually. This is very close. Get slightly more NAO and suddenly systems will cut west to east under the block. You can see the eastern ridge is mostly flat already there. It’s a typical error from a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How much for Philly-delphia? I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @leesburg 04 just for you. Last 24 hours for Thursday/Friday. Look at that 2” line retreat!!! They’ve been money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: I heard their asking for 2 draft picks and a player. Oh dude....fix that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Psu....eps at 12z trended stronger with high and more west than 12s yesterday for Thursday. Not over yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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