CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol lol I was just looking at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Next week seems like non events to me We were sold a bill of goods by the models. Remember the single digit lows and 0 N and W? If we go through next week without producing, what's left? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Turn lights out and close the blinds? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. So that TPV landing in a bad spot...that was just a bad dice roll, was it not? Smh I guess that was a random misfortune not necessarily related to anything else? Perhpas it was just not meant to be...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, snowmagnet said: I’m still waiting for the below 0 temps as promised... Models nailed it actually but they forgot it was celsius and not fahrenheit. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 All I know is that we’ve been in dead patterns only to see dumb luck, as PSU put it, prevail. In fact dumb luck probably accounts for more storms than we allow for in our disco. Why? Because getting the right macro pattern, teleconnections, setups, and track all at once basically never happens, and even getting two of those is quite difficult. So as far as I’m concerned, if we’re still within the first three months of the year, might as well cross our fingers and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: With everything that's shifted around on guidance the last few days, these solutions are the only ones that surprise me honestly. Mixy messy was totally where my head was at. Straight rain? Didnt really see that coming Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah that was a pretty quick turnaround. I wasn't expecting really any snow this upcoming week, but was sort of counting on what you say...a mix/icy mess for a couple of events with low-level cold air pretty well entrenched. When this winter was approaching I literally had zero interest. Ninas dont work well. Its how it is and its fine. Then blocking got going and wouldnt let go so I got sucked in. Which is fine as there is some good history with blocked ninas. Seems to be doing what ninas do best... find ways to nutpunch our area. A fine job I may add. I'm much less interested in wx now so time to crack jokes or go silent. One or the other 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Thursday is now 85% RAIN as well. What a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So that TPV landing in a bad spot...that was just a bad dice roll, was it not? Smh I guess that was a random misfortune not necessarily related to anything else? Perhpas it was just not meant to be...smh No snow hates us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, GFS is now ALL RAIN for Tuesday. According to @Wentzadelphia that’s good for Thursday right. RIGHT??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Might be about that panic room time lol. We had periods that were called the best since the blizzard of 1996 and another two periods that were the brother of snowmaggedon, plus an upcoming period that was supposed to feature 30+ inches of snow and be cold and snowy. Instead, we've gotten several slop storms to total anywhere from 10-15 inches. What a winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Thursday is now 85% RAIN as well. What a time Hope you like La Nina livin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We were sold a bill of goods by the models. Remember the single digit lows and 0 N and W? If we go through next week without producing, what's left? Lets hope they are equally wrong about where the pattern heads by the end of the month. If that's the way its going, we may have a chance or 2 as the longwave pattern progresses east beginning late next week and before it transitions to full on Nina Pac dumpster fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also?????? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast. I think we’re splitting hairs. There are some Nina characteristics but also some not. The pac currently is a mix match or some good and some bad features. Like we’ve pointed out in about 10 days it looks like a totally canonical Nina. But it’s been a Nina all winter so.... Also I don’t think we can attribute the pac ridge to Nina when it’s been there for years including 2 ninos! I think that’s a permanent pac base state due to warmer SSTs now. I think that’s going to be there to some degree ALL THE TIME regardless of enso until the whole pac and IO SST non tropical base state changes. The last 4 enso events didn’t produce a typical response. I don’t think enso is driving the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Wentzadelphia so we got what you wanted with Tuesday now going way to our west so why is Thursday still degrading across guidance also?????? Tuesday isnt rainy enough yet. Give it some time. Once FFWs go up tuesday, incoming thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Heck maybe it's the number this year...Looking back, winters ending in "1" didn't turn out very well. I mean our Top 20 snowstorms: not one of them happened in a year ending in 1! It was 3, 6, 7, 8, and 9, And the solar minimums...they didn't end in 1 either...I don't believe in numerology, but...I do believe in historical trends, even if they make no scientific sense, lol For you sanity’s sake I really hope this was a joke post 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 How we lookin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? A lot like December and much of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? Seems like the models and the guys who read the models were wrong 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Seems like the models and the guys who read the models were wrong Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How we lookin? We’re discussing numerology. What do you think? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea, we need wx53's super secret analog system to step in and show NWP and the rest of us who's boss. It's called MYASS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @losetoa6 stops posting and the whole thing goes into the crapper. There are very optimistic posters left. We can't afford to lose anymore. Come on back brother! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa correlation and causality are not the same. Correlations can be due to random chaos and when there is no logical possible link to causality that is usually the best explanation. After way too many years playing this game, one thing I've learned to do is not ask why it went wrong. The possibilities are endless and it doesnt change my muddy wet yard from being muddy and wet. My post mortem usually goes like this "well, that sure sucked a steaming pile of hippo diarrhea. Maybe next time it will be a pretty white fozen pile of hippo diarrhea". And then I crack jokes and do drugs until the next chance. Much more fun that way 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: @losetoa6 stops posting and the whole thing goes into the crapper. There are very optimistic posters left. We can't afford to lose anymore. Come on back brother! Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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