mattie g Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 hours ago, yoda said: 06z GFS says maybe thunderstorms on Friday morning? 60 degrees at DCA at 09z FRI Squall line moves through 12z to 15z FRI across region PeRlEr VeRTiX!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 41 minutes ago, BristowWx said: We need the AO to turn positive. Something we haven’t had all winter. That’s the money pattern EURO is trying hard to bring some snow with Thursdays mess. But I'm all for reshuffling the deck because this pattern isn't getting it done. Just maybe we can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 I believe the word you guys are looking for is ... EPIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 45 minutes ago, mattie g said: PeRlEr VeRTiX!!1! Ain't that it didn't come...it just split the wrong way. It certainly came for the folks out west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I believe the word you guys are looking for is ... EPIC I think we are right in the middle of our epic period now. The level of epicness is difficult to put into words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: I think we are right in the middle of our epic period now. The level of epicness is difficult to put into words. I’ll try... not great but wayyy better than last year. At least Utah isn’t the closest location to find snow to snowboard on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, chris21 said: I’ll try... not great but wayyy better than last year. At least Utah isn’t the closest location to find snow to snowboard on. Yeah its all relative. I broke into double digits so hard to complain. This week looks meh for most of us though outside of some freezing rain chances. Looked more promising a week or so ago. The NW crew should be more interested. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 After about the 18th, which the models show an apps runner/cutter with temps in the 60s, the GEFS shows sustained upper 40s/low 50s highs till the end of the run. I'll take that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah its all relative. I broke into double digits so hard to complain. This week looks meh for most of us though outside of some freezing rain chances. Looked more promising a week or so ago. The NW crew should be more interested. You still got that eps probability map that showed about a 215% chance of getting more than 15”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You still got that eps probability map that showed about a 215% chance of getting more than 15”? I’m still waiting for the below 0 temps as promised... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You still got that eps probability map that showed about a 215% chance of getting more than 15”? lol Useless. I usually only see those when WW posts them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You still got that eps probability map that showed about a 215% chance of getting more than 15”? How did your bold call work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Checked the thread this morning and see TSTMs being discussed. Then looked at 00Z Euro and see a half-inch of FZRA here on Tuesday and a 6” snowfall on Thursday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2021 Author Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: How did your bold call work out? It was a low probability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It was a low probability Like salsa mild medium and hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 10 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Checked the thread this morning and see TSTMs being discussed. Then looked at 00Z Euro and see a half-inch of FZRA here on Tuesday and a 6” snowfall on Thursday. Quite the stark deference between the GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 35 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: After about the 18th, which the models show an apps runner/cutter with temps in the 60s, the GEFS shows sustained upper 40s/low 50s highs till the end of the run. I'll take that. "Normal" temps for late Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, Wonderdog said: EURO is trying hard to bring some snow with Thursdays mess. But I'm all for reshuffling the deck because this pattern isn't getting it done. Just maybe we can get lucky. The deck was already reshuffled when the block retrograded too far west. We need the NAO to tank again. The pac isn’t changing. And I don’t mean the Nina. The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 The 00z UKMET went with the euro progression... mostly snow and sleet for the thursday storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Only thing I see that’s mildly a good setup is the wave around the 22-23. Btw @Wentzadelphia Tuesday is almost a full cutter on the gfs now and Thursday keeps trending warmer also. So why am I rooting for Tuesday to wash away all my snow again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The deck was already reshuffled when the block retrograded too far west. We need the NAO to tank again. The pac isn’t changing. And I don’t mean the Nina. The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away. Last nights ensembles look to bring back a -NAO by the last week of February. Other teleconnections don't look great but by that time of the year a-NAO is the most important and override the other indices. Maybe some hints of a -EPO in about 12 days. Maybe we get another round of decent looks. With shortening wavelengths we could be in business. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 Raining here and it's starting to freeze in my camellia leaves. Gonna be ugly if it picks up and keeps at it for the rest of the day. Oops wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 hours ago, CAPE said: You can mostly thank the EPAC for the cold dump out west. Nina says hiii. Right now there is an Aleutian low, trough east of Hawaii, and a ridge in AK. The pac does not look like a Nina config to me. I think the block retrograding too far was the biggest problem. Pulled the TPV west and opened the door for a ridge in the SE. The pac isn’t great but it’s not a dumpster fire it’s kinda meh. Had the Atlantic side not broken down we would be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6z eps trended warmer Thursday. This was the easiest thing to predict ever. Euro would be right about the further north wave Monday and GFS would be right about the warmer wave Thursday. I never liked Thursday much. With no TpV around to suppress the flow I don’t see how that doesn’t track west. Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. I see nothing in the flow to press the boundary south of us other then dumb luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 @CAPE ironically the pac becomes more a dumpster fire in a week just as we get the Atlantic side back to a favorable look. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away. We have a winner ! Maybe a hail Mary in March with shorter wavelengths and a period of blocking, but with the way things are going who really knows. I am setting my sights on a hyped hurricane season. Question is after March do we warm up rapidly or get - NAO messing up Spring. I feel the Atlantic will once again be a player in the Summer weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 6z eps trended warmer Thursday. This was the easiest thing to predict ever. Euro would be right about the further north wave Monday and GFS would be right about the warmer wave Thursday. I never liked Thursday much. With no TpV around to suppress the flow I don’t see how that doesn’t track west. Tuesday I loved until suddenly the TPV decided to stall and elongate NE so it comes through behind the waves instead of in front. I see nothing in the flow to press the boundary south of us other then dumb luck. The EPS really sucks IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, frd said: We have a winner ! Maybe a hail Mary in March with shorter wavelengths and a period of blocking, but with the way things are going who really knows. I am setting my sights on a hyped hurricane season. Question is after March do we warm up rapidly or get - NAO messing up Spring. I feel the Atlantic will once again be a player in the Summer weather. Atlantic could offset the pac in March but ATT guidance hints the next -NAO is very east based. Meanwhile the pac degrades into a true dumpster fire look in about a week. So I’m not sure that equation will work. But it’s close enough not to shut out the lights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, frd said: The EPS really sucks IMHO. Honestly the Geps GEFS and eps all look about the same now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Right now there is an Aleutian low, trough east of Hawaii, and a ridge in AK. The pac does not look like a Nina config to me. I think the block retrograding too far was the biggest problem. Pulled the TPV west and opened the door for a ridge in the SE. The pac isn’t great but it’s not a dumpster fire it’s kinda meh. Had the Atlantic side not broken down we would be good. I agree that effed things up, but that ship has sailed. The wave train in the Pac is such that the mean ridge is too far west. Idk, the tendency for a big ridge in that location looks Nina-ish to me, but whatever the causes, without the blocking and the trough/cold dumping out west, there isn't going to be much to inhibit the SER until there is a progression in the longwave pattern- we at least need the western ridge axis near the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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