aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's tough to get any winter storm in the East with a pna about to tank like this. Then it's probably going to snow then 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: “Loving that look last few days of January into early Feb. Thats the period that holds the most potential the entire season once things slow down and relax. Until then we are playing with fire with the NS shred factory“ you all literally keep moving this period back. That’s a really bad sign. I still think the waves the 24-30 have potential. But it’s also true we do better as blocking relaxes and we may be anxious and so jumping the gun. We might need to wait for the flow to relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... Let me just point out one issue with this post: You identified Ralph along with what you refer to as “really good posters.” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... The first flex of the NAO failed. That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: It's tough to get any winter storm in the East with a pna about to tank like this. It’s been positive and that did us no good...a -pna can work if other factors line up. There are also signs the ridge will retrograde into the SW eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It’s been positive and that did us no good...a -pna can work if other factors line up. There are also signs the ridge will retrograde into the SW eventually. Clustering supports that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Hot off the press, the 1/16/2021 GEFS lost all its members that supported a stronger vortex. Also noticed the extended duration of easterlies. Nice 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 OMG, slightly below normal cold in southern Canada. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Awesome toggle link to Really shows the changes later in the period https://fh004579.webs.act.reading.ac.uk/gfs_hf/vstar_tstar_100.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 47 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I don’t have the patience to go find them, but I could collect some posts from the really good posters on here that have said , since Jan 1, to “watch the period starting on the tenth” ”by the 15th we should be seeing blues on runs” ”the period around the 20th is ripe” ”window should be wide open by the 24th-26th” and now Ralph’s above. and that’s setting aside the posts from mid-December that the period from Christmas to New Years and just after New Years were ripe. larger observation is we’ve been kicking this can down the road for about a month now - the can being “ something , anything to track”. When I’ve seen this before in the previous 11 winters I’ve been here, it is, generally, not ideal. this road ends with the people in the maryland highlands trying to convince anyone below 1000 feet in elevation that snow on March 25th is good while they get five inches and everyone else gets puddles... hope one of these goalpost moving periods gets closer in time, but for 30 days now the goalposts keep moving. also, side note, props to the GFS for generally refusing to show blue over us in the long range, as that has been accurate as hell... Also to piggy back the Pacific has now ruined our winters now for the past few years with overwhelming our entire North American Continent with relative warmth no matter the state of El Niño or La Niña states. Could it be our warming Earth? Could it be dumping worldwide warmth into our oceans which is changing the overall climate system? It takes longer to warm the oceans and cool them down hence winters in some areas are shorter and shorter windows to produce what we want snow! I have honestly not seen too many times where you have a -epo, -ao, -Nao and can’t find cold air?? Temperature wise we are above normal for January again. Just frustrating to see nothing even in a suppose good look that the Pacific overwhelms anyway. Now that I said all of this it will snow lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Now On Feb 1 st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6z gfs wasn’t that bad. Speed the NS up or slow it down and it was close to a better solution. This NS wave(1) which keeps changing every run suppressed the flow in front. Get it out of the way and the next one (3) can dig in. Slow it and get it behind the southern wave (2) and it would phase. Just need that to adjust. It actually ejected a healthy wave that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Long range the PV making its way closer to NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Latest 1/16/2021 NAM forecast looks to be holding up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: No ns help . Probably slide off but it's a baby step A slightly less suppressive regime in general this run...Didnt do it for that wave but hopefully the ones behind it respond a little better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 What are the odds of this missing us? Lol It's got to find a way to avoid blueing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Snow at 222 for the PSU storm...primary into Ky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The first flex of the NAO failed. That’s over and done. We had a great -NAO but there was no cold in the pattern. We wasted it. So all those calls were wrong. Now we’re tracking the next round of blocking. There looks to be more cold this time. Or would you prefer we just pack it in and go home because the last one failed? Where did I say that? you guys get so weird about this. I am not blaming you or anyone for lack of snow. I am noting that we have been in a moving 30 day window for almost 30 days now. I said I hope this finally draws closer in time but I am now firmly skeptical. You are not responsible to make it snow, nor is CAPE or Ralph or wentz. The analysis has been good. Just more me noting the length the snow payoff has now drifted sideways . And that it may indeed keep slipping sideways. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Snow to sleet. For some. I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 I doubt the primary getting to Ohio before transferring with that look up top. Great run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: I doubt the primary getting to Ohio before transferring with that look up top. Great run Agree. This could work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Slight adjustments and its a monster at our lat....great storm nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, poolz1 said: Slight adjustments and its a monster at our lat....great storm nonetheless. The way things have been collapsing south this might be a solid chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 WB 12Z inside 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, poolz1 said: Slight adjustments and its a monster at our lat....great storm nonetheless. Add in some changes and BOOM for the Northern crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Whatever falls will stay around after. Real cold gets released from being on hold and looks quite bold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Slight adjustments and its a monster at our lat....great storm nonetheless. I would take it just as modeled. Nice blustery cold shot behind it too, with a 967mb low in the Berkshires. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Fool me once, shame on you.... Fool me twice, Shame on me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 And you guys were worried. Everything is fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said: Fool me once, shame on you.... Fool me twice, Shame on me... We don’t need that kind of realism in here. Shame on you again. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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