psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hard to ignore history...if things in our snow climo have not happened in a certain date range, it's hard to believe that changes (until it does, lol). February 21st-28th is simply not a typical time we get warning level snow. You pointed out 2005...one exception, though. Still rare. As I said, I looked at a list of our biggest snows: and none except for three in March happened after Feb 20th. All the dates were between Jan. and then...for some reason it just hasn't happened, so it's hard to believe it will (until it does, lol) We haven't had that many BIG snowstorms though...and our records only go back to the late 1800s. There are LOTS of dates that lack a HUGE snowstorm. The last week of February has had some 10" plus storms though. I do think the odds of a 20" type snowstorm in the 95 corridor start to go down once you get past the middle of February but it doesn't just STOP on a dime February 20th or something. They go down gradually each day. The fact one date has had a big storm and another did not is random chaos. This is just like when you try to play the "we are due" game or use the fact we never had more then a certain number of years without a big snowstorm to feel confident it we would get one...how has that worked out for you? Or used one bad year to think odds must be good of a better one next year...how did that work? I showed you that statistically the results one year have absolutely no effect on the odds the next year and you still brought that up again later that winter. The fact there are not usually a string of several anomalies in a row is simply the same reason that if you flip a coin you wont likely get heads 5 times in a row...but its still random chance each time. We had 7 years in a row below average once and a 10 year period with 8/10 below avg. We have also had a 10 year period with 7/10 above average. Again...you are constantly trying to find order in randomness for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I posted about the RGEM when it happened. I am mostly being a troll though. I still think we have a chance in late February. But in all honesty I could use a couple of 55 degree days at this point of the winter. yea I know this will come off as greedy to most everyone in here but I was kinda excited for the idea of getting some snow but a lot of ice on top of my snowpack and building up a glacier that might last a while. That is pretty rare even up here. But its looking more likely I have bare ground come Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 50 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Glad you can take this in stride... What exactly are my options here? I have no control over this. So I can accept it and get over it and laugh about it or I can let it ruin my night and get depressed for no good reason. Let me suggest that if you NEED snow to be happy you really really really should move. And I am not judging you...I drive an hour each way to work so I can get more snow. And frankly I am still not happy a lot of the time up here and I get twice as much snow as Baltimore (frankly more like 3x more lately). So I am not saying its wrong to need snow to be happy...but I am saying you are just asking for hurt if you need snow to be happy and live in a place with a median snowfall of like 15" that goes multiple years without a significant snowstorm very frequently! Why do you want to be miserable so much of the time? Either accept it or move somewhere that gets enough snow to be happy because the climo isn't going to change...at least not for the better. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But why? That's just unnatural in winter to me...like it's not supposed be...out of balance. But to each their own, I suppose... Because I am getting old. That is the only reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What exactly are my options here? I have no control over this. So I can accept it and get over it and laugh about it or I can let it ruin my night and get depressed for no good reason. Let me suggest that if you NEED snow to be happy you really really really should move. And I am not judging you...I drive an hour each way to work so I can get more snow. And frankly I am still not happy a lot of the time up here and I get twice as much snow as Baltimore (frankly more like 3x more lately). So I am not saying its wrong to need snow to be happy...but I am saying you are just asking for hurt if you need snow to be happy and live in a place with a median snowfall of like 15" that goes multiple years without a significant snowstorm very frequently! Why do you want to be miserable so much of the time? Either accept it or move somewhere that gets enough snow to be happy because the climo isn't going to change...at least not for the better. I have no control over where I live (yet)...and even if I did, there would likely be other factors as to why I couldn't exactly move. So I'm stuck trying to figure out how to not need it as much! Wait hang on...so you moved up to your location just for the snow? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Ji said: holyWow....welcome to last years winter lol I know what your doing but no reason to pile on. That’s not actually that bad. The PV is displaced and it’s also a temporary look as the pattern recycles. The next wave break in the Atlantic pumps the NAO ridge again a couple days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: But why? That's just unnatural in winter to me...like it's not supposed be...out of balance. But to each their own, I suppose... A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I have no control over where I live (yet)...and even if I did, there would likely be other factors as to why I couldn't exactly move. So I'm stuck trying to figure out how to not need it yet still enjoy it! Wait hang on...so you moved up to your location just for the snow? Wow! Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year. But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year. But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter. Its funny. I moved from eastern Loudoun 19 years ago based on snow. I wanted to stay in VA. And I literally researched the highest snow areas. This one was perfect for us. Great schools for my kids, relatively cool summers, fun downtown area and lots of history. I have grown to love the Winchester area. I could have moved further NW and been guaranteed another 5 inches per winter. But you have to find that balance. Now that I am aging I spend more and more time at my beach house though. Both of my kids are gone. And shoveling isnt as fun as it used to be. It is funny how your priorities change as you age. Anyways, sorry for my life story. But it kind of supports your comment. If you love snow bad enough move to where it actually snows. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: This isn’t true. We’ve had snowstorms the last week of Feb. We had two 4-7” storms the last week of February in 2005. that's 16 years ago. things have changed. sure you could get the anomaly and up by you it certainly is more favorable. but inside the beltway, we struggle to hit freezing at night in the heart of winter. my mid/late feb, the flowers are blooming (hell flowers around here basically never died). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together. This. ^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: that's 16 years ago. things have changed. sure you could get the anomaly and up by you it certainly is more favorable. but inside the beltway, we struggle to hit freezing at night in the heart of winter. my mid/late feb, the flowers are blooming (hell flowers around here basically never died). We just had a snowstorm on March 21 3 years ago! We had a big snows in March 2015, 2014 and 2009 also. It’s always a struggle to get snow in the cities but it doesn’t suddenly become impossible on a set date. After about Feb 15 it does start to get harder but very gradually a little each day until late March when it does hit a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We just had a snowstorm on March 21 3 years ago! We had a big snows in March 2015, 2014 and 2009 also. It’s always a struggle to get snow in the cities but it doesn’t suddenly become impossible on a set date. After about Feb 15 it does start to get harder but very gradually a little each day until late March when it does hit a wall. sure, but a snowstorm around here in late march is what, a 3 or 4 sigma event? probabilistically, significant snow after mid feb is rare, and becoming rarer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: sure, but a snowstorm around here in late march is what, a 3 or 4 sigma event? probabilistically, significant snow after mid feb is rare, and becoming rarer. Significant snow ANY date is rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Significant snow ANY date is rare i think it's pretty safe to say that a 5" snowstorm after Feb 20 in the immediate DC metro is much rarer than it is from Jan 1 to Feb 20. If we count the number of such storms that have happened in that period vs the number of times where such a storm hasn't happened, I would wager that the latter would far outnumber the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together. It's how I'd like normal to be Winter, cold...not always reality, but I certainly wish it was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If you love snow bad enough move to where it actually snows. Not everybody has that option though...and in that case, you're kind of stuck with the climo. I mean I'm in no position to move anywhere, that's for sure! So the only other way is through--figuring out how the heck to deal with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 45 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: i think it's pretty safe to say that a 5" snowstorm after Feb 20 in the immediate DC metro is much rarer than it is from Jan 1 to Feb 20. If we count the number of such storms that have happened in that period vs the number of times where such a storm hasn't happened, I would wager that the latter would far outnumber the former. The odds gradually decrease everyday but there is no sudden huge change that hits late February. The huge change happens in mid March where spring climo takes over and snow does become much more rare. From Feb 15-March 15 it’s a very gradual slope. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 @pazzo83 6 of the last 12 years DCs biggest snowfall came in March! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 We've talked about how Tuesday has slipped away but the run-to-run change on surface temps is... disappointing. 00z: 18z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 So now the Euro has Thurs/Fri event. All of the models should be teeing up by 12z tomm. Got some of the early, raw output here: 1 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 @stormtracker Lucy in the sky with footballs? Ah heck no let's hope she stays home on Thurs/Fri, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 so much for the artic air 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 hour ago, Ruin said: so much for the artic air CMC called that a week ago. I'm ready to end this dumpster fire anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 lulz 06z GFS says oh you thought you were done? Nice try... come back into my parlor with my major ice storm Monday night into Tuesday morning for all of you Kicks out everything in one full wave instead of two this run so there is no Tue/Wed storm anymore... only the Mon/Tues storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Yup. That’s one hell of an ice storm as depicted. For now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Yup. That’s one hell of an ice storm as depicted. For now 0.4"-0.8" ice... nice lol... mainly centered along i95 corridor as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 0.4"-0.8" ice... nice lol... mainly centered along i95 corridor as well Hell maybe we’ll get one of those rare ice storm warnings. If that’s all we can do then so be it. Mentally I have given up on the flush hit cold powder scenario. Just not in the cards 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Hell maybe we’ll get one of those rare ice storm warnings. If that’s all we can do then so be it. Mentally I have given up on the flush hit cold powder scenario. Just not in the cards 06z Para GFS agrees with 06z GFS and kicks out the wave in full swoop... late Monday night into Tuesday morning major ice storm... slams i81 to i95 corridor with 0.4-0.8" ice as well 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 43 minutes ago, dailylurker said: CMC called that a week ago. I'm ready to end this dumpster fire anyway. Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this? What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts