nj2va Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: everything trended 8-10 degrees warmer from 18z on the GFS Not surprised. That’s been the trend all winter in DC. We basically need to be near 0 on the models 48 hours out to have a chance in the city since we know models will correct higher. I say that tongue in cheek but you can’t deny that modeled cold hasn’t verified in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 positive NAO--lots of blue in Canada, SE ridge--welcome to La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Do you think this would influence Thursday too? I know you are grasping for something to hug for comfort but there is no point looking that far out with several waves that will all influence each other in front of it. Look what’s happened to storms much closer. Besides comfort is overrated. I prefer to let the bitter pain penetrate and cleanse my snow weenie soul. Embrace the sorrow and breathe in the despair. Live in the moment and experience the fail! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Canadian also agrees with the RGEM idea. Moderate rain on Tuesday. I love me some nice cold rain in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Seasonal trends. Still 4 days out. My guess is it ends up less amped That’s not the problem. You know I’ve been optimistic because I didn’t buy the amplified idea. But this problem is different. It’s a wave spacing issue. It’s also related to a trend I’ve noticed across guidance the last 24 hours to shift the TPV northwest over the weekend. That trend finally allowed enough ridging among the east coast for a wave to ride up Monday and lock the boundary to our west. None of the waves are amplifying anymore. The problem is the TPV slides across too late and too far north and so the boundary stalls to our west and all the waves run that boundary. The boundary could shift back yes but that’s something I’m a lot less confident in then I was that over amped wouldn’t be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I love me some nice cold rain in February Trend continues it might not be that cold. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I know you are grasping for something to hug for comfort but there is no point looking that far out with several waves that will all influence each other in front of it. Look what’s happened to storms much closer. Besides comfort is overrated. I prefer to let the bitter pain penetrate and cleanse my snow weenie soul. Embrace the sorrow and breathe in the despair. Live in the moment and experience the fail! Glad you can take this in stride... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Trend continues it might not be that cold. the euro and GFS gave us 10-14 2 days ago. I know that was overdone but i didnt think we woud lose all of it. then we had this ice storm for saturday night. We lost that too. And then i knew it wasnt going go snow Tuesday but i figure---it would take a miracle not to at least get ice. Well...that miracle came. so now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 holyWow....welcome to last years winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: the euro and GFS gave us 10-14 2 days ago. I know that was overdone but i didnt think we woud lose all of it. then we had this ice storm for saturday night. We lost that too. And then i knew it wasnt going go snow Tuesday but i figure---it would take a miracle not to at least get ice. Well...that miracle came. so now what? Time to start the group Jay’s spring deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: holyWow....welcome to last years winter You know what? With the constant collapses within 4 days and the way it annoys me BRING ON THE TORCH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 21 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I think if Thursday doesn't work...then from a historical standpoint, then we might be able to call it. Not winter has ever produced anything sizeable (that is at least 5") between February 21st-28th, and March is, well...March, lol So next week could be our last shot, I'm afraid This isn’t true. We’ve had snowstorms the last week of Feb. We had two 4-7” storms the last week of February in 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This isn’t true. We’ve had snowstorms the last week of Feb. We had two 4-7” storms the last week of February in 2005. In your yard or mine/DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 @Maestrobjwa btw you need to stop trying to find meaning in random chaos. Just because a certain date has been a while since it snowed is random luck. You are always trying to find trends and order in things that are totally random chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s not the problem. You know I’ve been optimistic because I didn’t buy the amplified idea. But this problem is different. It’s a wave spacing issue. It’s also related to a trend I’ve noticed across guidance the last 24 hours to shift the TPV northwest over the weekend. That trend finally allowed enough ridging among the east coast for a wave to ride up Monday and lock the boundary to our west. None of the waves are amplifying anymore. The problem is the TPV slides across too late and too far north and so the boundary stalls to our west and all the waves run that boundary. The boundary could shift back yes but that’s something I’m a lot less confident in then I was that over amped wouldn’t be a problem. As of now we aren't that far from being on the winning side.Trends aren't great but there's so,many players on the field things could easily reverse course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your yard or mine/DC? I was closer to the 7 and DC the 4 both storms. I think you were about 5-6 both storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: In your yard or mine/DC? Feb 25 and 28 2005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Feb 25 and 28 2005 I gotcha...so that was the one exception, so maybe there's a little hope post Feb 20th (but not for a big storm though--no storm on that list happened the last week of February. Even the great 2009-10 winter we had a miss that week, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 holyWow....welcome to last years winterI'll take it. Better start on that grass early.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Maestrobjwa btw you need to stop trying to find meaning in random chaos. Just because a certain date has been a while since it snowed is random luck. You are always trying to find trends and order in things that are totally random chaos. Hard to ignore history...if things in our snow climo have not happened in a certain date range, it's hard to believe that changes (until it does, lol). February 21st-28th is simply not a typical time we get warning level snow. You pointed out 2005...one exception, though. Still rare. As I said, I looked at a list of our biggest snows: and none except for three in March happened after Feb 20th. All the dates were between Jan. and then...for some reason it just hasn't happened, so it's hard to believe it will (until it does, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Looks like the UKIE also went that way... at least all the models are doing it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 UK has joined the 33 and rain train. I might be done tracking this winter. Time to break out the shorts in VA Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: UK has joined the 33 and rain train. I might be done tracking this winter. Time to break out the shorts in VA Beach. Maybe we can get a bit warmer and get a severe thunderstorm instead? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I gotcha...so that was the one exception, so maybe there's a little hope post Feb 20th (but not for a big storm though--no storm on that list happened the last week of February. Even the great 2009-10 winter we had a miss that week, lol) Baltimore had a 10"+ snowstorm Feb 22-23 1987. I know there was a big snowstorm the last few days of February in 1966 also. I am sure there were a lot of smaller snowstorms also...but those are some really big ones the last week of Feb. There is no reason it cannot snow the last week of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hard to ignore history...if things in our snow climo have not happened in a certain date range, it's hard to believe that changes (until it does, lol). February 21st-28th is simply not a typical time we get warning level snow. You pointed out 2005...one exception, though. Still rare. As I said, I looked at a list of our biggest snows: and none except for three in March happened after Feb 20th. All the dates were between Jan. and then...for some reason it just hasn't happened, so it's hard to believe it will (until it does, lol) Didn't we have a 4-12" event for a good bit of the area for Feb 20 2015? Also several events in the last week of Feb 2014. Feb 20 of 2019 gave 3-5" of heavy snow as well. There's no reason to think that snow climo just drops off a cliff after just a few days and picks back up again right after. It's probably been just a bit of bad luck and the fact that we've had a bunch of terrible Februaries in terms of snow producing patterns. March has actually been surprisingly good for the general subforum. Even with the past 2 Marches being lackluster, I believe that the metros are still running close to if not above average on snowfall departures in March for the 2010s, and that's considering all the hostility that limits significant accumulating snow in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 An hour left until the 00z Euro locks in 50s for Tuesday as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK has joined the 33 and rain train. I might be done tracking this winter. looks more like upper 40's and rain! LOL. I don't know what it was... just a gut feeling...but when I saw the RGEM this afternoon my thought was "ugh well that would be a way to turn this whole progression next week into a total fail...but its just the rgem so ok". Then as soon as I saw the NAM go that way tonight I just had a sinking feeling. It's not pessimism because when we saw over amped western Phase rain solutions that didn't bother me at all. But something about this struck me as a more realistic fail scenario. I just had a sinking feeling when I saw the NAM and before all the other guidance I would have bet a LOT they would all go this way. Just felt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: looks more like upper 40's and rain! LOL. I don't know what it was... just a gut feeling...but when I saw the RGEM this afternoon my thought was "ugh well that would be a way to turn this whole progression next week into a total fail...but its just the rgem so ok". Then as soon as I saw the NAM go that way tonight I just had a sinking feeling. It's not pessimism because when we saw over amped western Phase rain solutions that didn't bother me at all. But something about this struck me as a more realistic fail scenario. I just had a sinking feeling when I saw the NAM and before all the other guidance I would have bet a LOT they would all go this way. Just felt it. Yeah. I posted about the RGEM when it happened. I am mostly being a troll though. I still think we have a chance in late February. But in all honesty I could use a couple of 55 degree days at this point of the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 An hour left until the 00z Euro locks in 50s for Tuesday as well GFS holding on to the vodka bottle for Valentines day. Cheers Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I posted about the RGEM when it happened. I am mostly being a troll though. I still think we have a chance in late February. But in all honesty I could use a couple of 55 degree days at this point of the winter. But why? That's just unnatural in winter to me...like it's not supposed be...out of balance. But to each their own, I suppose... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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