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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON...

It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm. 

What is this world coming to when we are relying on the NAM and RGEM. 

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Gfs went that way too.  Not good.  Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression.  That is not the way we want it to to trend. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs went that way too.  Not good.  Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression.  That is not the way we want it to to trend. 

Might be time to look to Thursday...

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Gfs went that way too.  Not good.  Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression.  That is not the way we want it to to trend. 

everything trended 8-10 degrees warmer from 18z on the GFS

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Just now, Ji said:

if tuesday is a disater--thursday will be worse. Winter is over 

I think if Thursday doesn't work...then from a historical standpoint, then we might be able to call it. Not  winter has ever produced anything sizeable (that is at least 5") between February 21st-28th, and March is, well...March, lol So next week could be our last shot, I'm afraid

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Just now, Ji said:

everything trended 8-10 degrees warmer from 18z on the GFS

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave.  The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave.  The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. 

Do you think this would influence Thursday too?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave.  The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. 

Seasonal trends. Still 4 days out. My guess is it ends up less amped

 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave.  The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. 

RGEM and NAM really havent agreed on much this week.. them being lockstep even at that range seems to be a deadly combo

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