CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Last year was a nino! lol did you read the second part of my post? How about this- "traditional, typical Nino" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: I’ll make a PSA since there are some that root for icing events. Check out video footage of Texas, and tell me you are rooting for ice. Just probably lost a dozen lives and dozens more seriously injured. This is a weather forum, but it’s just food for thought. And they didn’t even really get much accretion. Yeah, I have very mixed feelings about ice storms. They can be stunningly beautiful but also incredibly destructive. Experienced a big one on Long Island in 1978 or 1979, it completely destroyed the power grid and we had no power for a week. No wood stove, no backup generator, no fun! But it was spectacularly beautiful. People up here (Rochester area) STILL talk about the big one that hit in 1991. Wasn't living here then, and we moved up here just after the latest destructive one in 2003. That one was nowhere near as bad and we are now past due. If you can thread the needle and get enough ice to coat all the trees but not enough to bring them all down, that's ideal. 1.5" of ice is too much and I hope you all don't get hit with that. The set up does look concerning but plenty of time for things to sort out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Wetbulbs88 said: I get this. In the end it’s not up to us though. So I guess I wouldn’t see it as immoral to try and enjoy the dynamics if it does happen. Oh definitely, if anything it tells us to stay inside and not drive unless absolutely necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 did euro ensemble snow map increase at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol did you read the second part of my post? How about this- "traditional, typical Nino" Personally I don’t think enso has been driving our patterns as much as it used to since 2016. I think the lack of gradient muted the ninos and the warmth all around it muted the Ninas some. There have been a lot of atypical patterns per enso the last 2 Nina/nino cycles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: did euro ensemble snow map increase at all? just checked. the answer is not really. pretty identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM at 84hrs.. this is what I'm thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: did euro ensemble snow map increase at all? It looks like it went down because we lost the snow from overnight. But if you adjust for that it actually went up like 1-2” NW of 95 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Nice AFD from Mount Holly on the "potential" for the upcoming week- An active weather pattern is expected to continue through next week as two additional storms affect the region over the course of the work week. The clash of air masses over the CONUS through next week is quite impressive. Extreme cold air over the central US, largely driven by a strong -AO and fragmented polar vortex, will collide with much warmer air over the Southeast as we see the development of persistent Southeast ridging, which is favored by the La Nina ENSO state. The strong baroclinicity between these two air masses will keep the storm track active with weather systems impacting the mid- Atlantic about every other day. This will be a difficult pattern to forecast, as the presence of so many systems in short order (including from the current week) is playing havoc with the models. In addition, the thermal profiles of these storms will be challenging as the increasingly strong Southeast ridging will likely favor warmer outcomes with time, but with still a lot of cold air nearby which is often slow to scour out of the low levels. Of the two systems expected this week, the one Monday night into Tuesday currently appears to be the "colder" of the two, with a better chance for more warm air to become involved with the second system moving in towards Thursday. However, both of these systems appear to have the potential to produce large areas of mixed precipitation, with various ptypes likely including opportunities for freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It looks like it went down because we lost the snow from overnight. But if you adjust for that it actually went up like 1-2” NW of 95 did it really? These maps for the 24hr period that the Tuesday storm would mostly happen in look fairly identical. If you were referring to a difference between 12z and 00z I'd agree more but I'd say closer to .5"-1". 12z: 06z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ICON is decent for Tuesday. Nothing major, but more frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 If you aren't into ice, the next week weather-wise is probably not your thing. It ain't mine lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Icon has Snow north/ mix south of DC with very cold surface temps. Teens and low twenties overnight Monday into Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 RGEM is a rainstorm for all of us Sunday/Monday. WTF is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is a rainstorm for all of us Sunday/Monday. WTF is that? Seems to be the system PSU mentioned that really hurts our chances of letting the HP funnel some colder air in. I think you can see the response from that system being much weaker on the NAM. Check out hr 84 for the NAM, core of the TPV cold is a fair bit farther west of the GFS yet the 850s are still more favorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS looks like a step in the right direction. ^ most of this is Tuesday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS has green when the temp is 19 degrees. awesome 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 The Tuesday storm may evolve into our best look of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Last year was a nino! Well I think we know what tanked last winter...lol But it does seem that in ninas random little NS junk seems to be more of a risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: GFS has green when the temp is 19 degrees. awesome I know you play dumb a lot, but you clearly aren't. Stop. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The Tuesday storm may evolve into our best look of the year. That's asking for too much IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS has green when the temp is 19 degrees. awesome Same thing the RGEM was doing. These models have lost it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 That is one hellacious ice storm on the GFS. I for one hope it is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: WTF is that The RGEM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 For shits sake its not the GFS. Or the RGEM. It is TT. Goddamn. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: That is one hellacious ice storm on the GFS. I for one hope it is wrong. With the 850’s and ground temps it has, along with the precip amounts, it would be a heck of a thump to ice. I’ll take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS has green when the temp is 19 degrees. awesome Looks like you are in one of the purple/pink columns. What's up with purple pink columns?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: For shits sake its not the GFS. Or the RGEM. It is TT. Goddamn. LOL. I thought it would be clear that it’s a graphics issue. Guess not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS looks like a step in the right direction. ^ most of this is Tuesday Hubba hubba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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