Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Not particularly enthused for here, but you NW folks might make out better. I really have no interest in sleet/freezing rain to rain at this juncture. The overall h5 pattern is significantly flawed, but not unworkable for the interior.

I hear that. I think there will be a lot of ice up in these parts. Next Tuesday may be our best shot at a mostly snow event, but I have a feeling we are in for a dangerous amount of ice come Sunday morning and again at the end of next week. Of course climo is more favorable here, but as you said, h5 doesn’t look great and it’ll take a lot of needle threading to get a significant snowfall - even up this way. 

[caviman2201]

Seems very odd to see a banana high in the right position with a surface low dying in eastern TN and we get no snow... 

[jayyy]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Seems very odd to see a banana high in the right position with a surface low dying in eastern TN and we get no snow... 

Doesn’t look all that surprising to me based on the overall look here. The high pressures are great and all, and will keep the surface very cold - but if you look at 850s, that low track screams southerly winds into the mid levels.  There’s not enough confluence up north to overcome that as depicted. 

[CAPE]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Seems very odd to see a banana high in the right position with a surface low dying in eastern TN and we get no snow... 

Not really. This is pretty far from the ideal look for the lowlands of the MA if you want snow. Locate the baroclinic boundary with the location of that trough..

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, CAPE said:

Not really. This is pretty far from the ideal look for the lowlands of the MA if you want snow. Locate the baroclinic boundary with the location of that trough..

Bah, we need to shift that entire trough east about 500 miles.  Texas is stealing our arctic air and snow!

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Bah, we need to shift that entire trough east about 500 miles.  Texas is stealing our arctic air and snow!

Nina.

[Wetbulbs88]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast. 

Ahhh yes I understand now. Very interesting. 

[DDweatherman]

I’ll make a PSA since there are some that root for icing events. Check out video footage of Texas, and tell me you are rooting for ice.

Just probably lost a dozen lives and dozens more seriously injured. This is a weather forum, but it’s just food for thought. And they didn’t even really get much accretion. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nina.

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

37 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I got them for next week here

Fu*cker 

I clicked on it

[Wetbulbs88]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

Forgive me if it’s there but I’m on mobile—what’s your location? 

[JakkelWx]

This is just a "bad luck" -NAO/-AO winter, and we still managed to get a few nickel and dime events at the very least. We just happened to be at the low end of things for those kinds of winters. 2009/10 OTOH...

I've had about half of my seasonal total in just 2-3 weeks.

[Wetbulbs88]

6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ll make a PSA since there are some that root for icing events. Check out video footage of Texas, and tell me you are rooting for ice.

Just probably lost a dozen lives and dozens more seriously injured. This is a weather forum, but it’s just food for thought. And they didn’t even really get much accretion. 

I get this. In the end it’s not up to us though. So I guess I wouldn’t see it as immoral to try and enjoy the dynamics if it does happen. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Forgive me if it’s there but I’m on mobile—what’s your location? 

Manchester MD.  About 3 miles south of the PA line due north of DC at about 1000 feet.  

[Wetbulbs88]

Just now, JakkelWx said:

This is just a "bad luck" -NAO/-AO winter, and we still managed to get a few nickel and dime events at the very least. We just happened to be at the low end of things for those kinds of winters. 2009/10 OTOH...

This could be true. We’ve had some decent winters with absolute garbage patterns where we thread the proverbial needle a few times. 

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Manchester MD.  About 3 miles south of the PA line due north of DC at about 1000 feet.  

That is a pretty decent difference in climo though. I guess I’m just not totally shocked. We always hear about how 95 is the quintessential dividing line. Even in Ellicott City growing up I remember being infinitely thankful I wasn’t in DC. 

[midatlanticweather]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

The only thing I think could have helped was the +PNA - But I mean - I want Unicorns.. Agree that this year has been a tough one. We had most all the checklist covered except a few items.. but you should not have to get all right to get some good snows. This has been a suck winter in many ways. But, one storm could get many to Climo, but there are still many, especially easy of 95, totally starving from lack of snow. Crazy year! LA Nina and the ripping and shearing of systems was definitely an issue. And the set up now is not ideal.. but you would think we could get something to break the right way! 

 

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

I do believe we were dealt the worst hand leading up to this winter. November completely torched our cold air source, and while the Nina hasn't fully been in force, it certainly hasn't helped the Pacific. That is, until this past month. The biggest concern here is that we actually got PAC help with a couple pulses of EPO ridges, and we're still looking at the same short end of the stick. I may be going out on a limb here, but regardless of the strength of ENSO forcing, Ninas have certainly responded worse to the new base state we're in. Almost all Ninos in recent memory have had a much better response down in the metro areas, and the snow gradient has not been nearly as extreme as in Ninas. Maybe that's due to the PAC being less hostile and the southern stream lining up a bit more when cold was pushed into our side of the country, but I wouldn't be entirely certain about that.

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

What part of this winter has been nina like?  I am equally frustrated with getting snow into the coastal plain because I want to enjoy this and its difficult when so many around you are rightfully in a piss mood.  But we had a month straight with a deep -NAO and an eastern trough and it did no good.  And everyone said lets get the TPV into N America and try waves.  So now we have that pattern...and the waves are all directed right at us...but it might be too warm along the coastal plain and so....what...what now?  You want that TPV over top of us instead of in the midwest....then its just cold/dry.  We want the boundary running trough our area.  What pattern are we looking for now?  What haven't we tried yet?  Here is the thing that frustrates me and troubles me...the "pattern" DC wants for snow is the same as mine.  From 15 days away the h5 look we want is identical.  Historically we get snow from the same storms mostly.  Yes I get more...but historically if I get a 12" snowstorm DC doesnt get 0.  But that has happened several times in the last few years!  Historically If I get 12" DC should be getting 4-8".  If I get 8" DC should be getting 2-4".   But we used to share most of the same snowstorms.  Now...I keep getting snow while DC is just rain.  That is not normal...not to the extent its happening now.  Historically a winter that produced 35-40" up here would be 15-20" in and around DC.  The last few times I got 35-40" DC was in the single digits!  So I am not even sure what kind of unicorn pattern we are looking for anymore because we have had a month straight of about the best pattern I could come up with if you gave me the crayons and it has done little good for DC.  

Zoom out. Keep it simple. The tendency for a PAC ridge and trough out west is- totally Nina. Even a persistent -AO/NAO cannot completely mitigate that.

Go back and look at the advertised H5 looks on the means for this upcoming period a week or so ago.

[WinterWxLuvr]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The tendency for a PAC ridge and trough out west is- totally Nina.

Exactly. And the reason that those Arctic outbreaks never quite make it, seemingly 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I do believe we were dealt the worst hand leading up to this winter. November completely torched our cold air source, and while the Nina hasn't fully been in force, it certainly hasn't helped the Pacific. That is, until this past month. The biggest concern here is that we actually got PAC help with a couple pulses of EPO ridges, and we're still looking at the same short end of the stick. I may be going out on a limb here, but regardless of the strength of ENSO forcing, Ninas have certainly responded worse to the new base state we're in. Almost all Ninos in recent memory have had a much better response down in the metro areas, and the snow gradient has not been nearly as extreme as in Ninas. Maybe that's due to the PAC being less hostile and the southern stream lining up a bit more when cold was pushed into our side of the country, but I wouldn't be entirely certain about that.

After the early Pac firehose, we did finally get a mechanism in place long enough to inject some polar air into our source region- a favorable WPO/EPO and probably some impacts from the SWE. Since that time, the longwave pattern has only tickled this region briefly with any legit cold air. Just more bad luck, or failing for a different reason, but what I see is a pretty classic NINA pattern that is doing the screwing now, while at the same time we have some untimely relaxation in the HL blocking.

[psuhoffman]

The weak wave Monday is hurting our chances Tuesday Imo. Prevents the high from building in. 

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The weak wave Monday is hurting our chances Tuesday Imo. Prevents the high from building in. 

lol this is about the 9th time this winter that something weak that comes out of nowhere kills our storm chances

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

I do believe we were dealt the worst hand leading up to this winter. November completely torched our cold air source, and while the Nina hasn't fully been in force, it certainly hasn't helped the Pacific. That is, until this past month. The biggest concern here is that we actually got PAC help with a couple pulses of EPO ridges, and we're still looking at the same short end of the stick. I may be going out on a limb here, but regardless of the strength of ENSO forcing, Ninas have certainly responded worse to the new base state we're in. Almost all Ninos in recent memory have had a much better response down in the metro areas, and the snow gradient has not been nearly as extreme as in Ninas. Maybe that's due to the PAC being less hostile and the southern stream lining up a bit more when cold was pushed into our side of the country, but I wouldn't be entirely certain about that.

I think there is definitely something to this. With an active stj plus the propensity for HL blocking in a Nino, it just seems to work out better for our area, the lowlands in particular. Certainly there is plenty of variability here too, depending on the exact location and strength of the Nino event, as well as other indices. But in general I believe the data is supportive.

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol this is about the 9th time this winter that something weak that comes out of nowhere kills our storm chances

This happens a lot in a Nina.

In Ninos things often seem to come together exactly when we need them to. Ofc lately there are probably some other factors at play, regardless of ENSO state..

[psuhoffman]

@CAPE yes but the other day when I checked the top pattern analogs (and those include the pac) were February 2007, March 56, February 1994 and I saw Feb 79 in there too!  All of them were at least significantly cold. Some snowed a lot, some a little, but they weren’t periods where cold was in short supply. Seems harder to get the same temp response lately. 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, CAPE said:

This happens a lot in a Nina.

In Ninos things often seem to come together exactly when we need them to. Ofc lately there are probably some other factors at play, regardless of ENSO state..

Last year was a nino! 

[SnowenOutThere]

Is there any chance that these ice storms could turn into snow storms?

[stormtracker]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Is there any chance that these ice storms could turn into snow storms?

Not if threads are made about them too soon. 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@CAPE yes but the other day when I checked the top pattern analogs (and those include the pac) were February 2007, March 56, February 1994 and I saw Feb 79 in there too!  All of them were at least significantly cold. Some snowed a lot, some a little, but they weren’t periods where cold was in short supply. Seems harder to get the same temp response lately. 

I agree. Easy answer is when we do get cold building in our source region, the typical pattern in a Nina tends to dump it too far west, but that is a generalization, and not always the case. There is more to it than this.