stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Another event falling apart? This is shocking. Now let's move on to Tuesday's unraveling. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: how does the GFS not get any precip into the area on Saturday? like how is this possible? and then how does this happen? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Another event falling apart? This is shocking. Now let's move on to Tuesday's unraveling. tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: That would kill the event I say we never make separate threads that way it snows because thats how it works. Agreed. The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us. If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Ji said: tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave Looking more amped through 90 on the GFS though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: tuesday is looking like its going from amped up monster HECS icestorm....to a POS wave What? it looks like a monster on the GFS at 102. Snow into my area already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Agreed. The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us. If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us. Maybe the models are feeling verklempt! They must talk amongst themselves! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Looking more amped through 90 on the GFS though... Frustating. Look at the surface ( I know i know extended range) 31 in DC with precip approaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: What? it looks like a monster on the GFS at 102. Snow into my area already. just saying based on trends. GGEM-Icon and how the euro and GFS are caving to the idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 how does this happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Frustating. Look at the surface ( I know i know extended range) 31 in DC with precip approaching. what? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Absolutely. Looks like an ice to rain scenario on 12z. They improve some once precip starts but every run temps creep up a little. Still a significant storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: what? These are the temps on approach. They improve during the storm but still are a few degrees warmer than previous runs. I'm a little gun shy about the extended depth of cold due to our previous storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 storm seems run of the mill....quick moving...not very wet and out of here in a flash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. When is our next beatdown lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When is our next beatdown lol 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, HighStakes said: All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam? Trust me, by Monday's runs there won't be a storm. It'll be a strung out piece of shit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I can’t believe I live in DC now. Like it just hit me over this past week. This is just...rough man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON. CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can we start a thread for this weekend's ice potential, or is it not even worth it? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 At some point, you would think we quit hanging on every model run and acknowledge the seasonal trends, which are what they are. We still have a lot to be thankful for, considering if you told me preseason we would survive all of met winter without a bona fide torch period, I would have thought you were crazy. This now appears to be pretty likely. That is pretty unusual here even in our most prolific seasons. Struggling to recall the last time this really occured. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 But we're also probably going to go two whole winters without a single sub-freezing high at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 13 minutes ago, HighStakes said: All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam? Yeah, I'm also perplexed by why storms are zipping in and out so quickly. Also super frustrating to see we can't get one of these storms coming out of the gulf to wind up. The temps are fine. How hard is it? Everything is either north and a mixed bag here or sheared out and we get some crumbs if we are lucky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GGEM is mostly snow for Tuesday FWIW. Looks like the Icon. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I honestly don't understand how these storms are zooming through with all the blocking. I thought blocking was supposed to cause a log jam of storms. Is it something to do with the spacing of each storm that's messing things up for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Now, a typical rule is, we get ice storms in -EPO -WPO, but not -PNA. -PNA can sometimes ice, but it underperforms. Models have a slight +EPO and +WPO and the -PNA ridge is all the way SE off the west coast.. I'd bet against anything big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2021 Author Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, psurulz said: I honestly don't understand how these storms are zooming through with all the blocking. I thought blocking was supposed to cause a log jam of storms. Is it something to do with the spacing of each storm that's messing things up for us? They aren’t storms for the most part. Measly little 1012 lows aren’t what I’d call storms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 hours ago, real said: Yea, but even among those 5 events, the only one that would really been that big of storm, if i recall correctly, is the two-day Miller B two weeks ago that hit NYC. Ji has been correct. Most things seem to have also trended drier, faster, etc, as they have approached this region this winter. And many of these events were not even that close to stay all-snow, despite what the models suggested was possible a few days ahead of time. . I could live with missing a storm because you live in the city and the snow/rain line sets up in Fairfax... But most of these storms have been an all-encompassing screw job for the entire close-in DC region, and it all just seems to fall apart on approach. But there was no HECS storm in 2015 or 2014 and those were considered good winters. You are right...there wouldn't have been a HECS storm this year so far in DC regardless of the temp issues but let me make a point by playing an "alternate universe" where its 2C colder from 700mb on down in DC. I think this is a fair temp to assume may have changed in the last 20 years due to a combo of AGW, UHI, and simply the current on fire base states of the Pacific and Atlantic oceans! I am going through every storm where if you subtract 2C from the column h7 to the surface and exactly what that would have meant to the result in DC proper (not necessarily National airport in that lava pit they take measurements at). So storms where that would have got the surface down to a supportive temp for snow (say 33-34) and gotten the column above that below freezing. I am going to be conservative but fair. Dec 14th DC recorded 1.06 from a wave. Not all of that would have been frozen...it was a cold boundary sinking south. I got about 3" up here but the best moisture actually was suppressed SOUTH of me. Problem was even with a perfect wave track the boundary layer was scorched in the coastal plain. It was upper 30's rain. You subtract 2C from that and it ended as 2-4" of snow. Dec 16th DC recorded 1.11 QPF. Not all of that would have been snow if you subtract 2C... eventually the warm mid level would have won out...but at least 5-7" would have fallen first. A lot of that QPF happened in the initial WAA wave when the warm layer was very shallow and there was also a warm layer at the surface where it was like 33-34. That combo killed what should have been a 5-7" changing to ice event imo. January 1, .81 QPF. Again not all would have been snow, the primary tracked too far inland but if you subtract 2C that was a 1-3" snow/sleet to ice event. January 3: perfect track rainstorm. .28 QPF. Should have been 2-3" 1/25, .2 QPF but surface was around 33 and also a barely above 0 warm layer. lets say 1-2" 1/31 to 2/2 .57 QPF. The warm layer never got above 2c. So make that all snow. 5-6" 2/7, .49 and the problem was all boundary layer...subtract 2C and that was a 4-5" snow Last night the warm layer was never more then 1C and the boundary wasn't THAT WARM...that is a 3-5" snow under my alternate universe. So in this alternate universe where its 2C colder...DC is at 23-35" right now with a month of snow climo left and a pretty good pattern ahead. Looking at a top 10% snowfall winter maybe! I think my point WRT what the biggest issue is holds some validity. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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