jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Tuesday looks like it may be ripe for people west, and perhaps even along 95 - north of DC. Trends looks really good with 3+ days to go. I’m actually quite excited for that one up this way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Nam seems very uneventful for the Saturday wave now. Very little precip north of EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nam seems very uneventful for the Saturday wave now. Very little precip north of EZF. thing is with temps in the 20s (assuming that holds), then it really wouldn't take much precip to turn things into a skating rink sunday. tuesday does look interesting on the gfs. the latest cmc shows the squashed version. i would think suppression/weaker, but still workable system would make more sense, but we'll see what the 12z's have to say. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, 87storms said: thing is with temps in the 20s (assuming that holds), then it really wouldn't take much precip to turn things into a skating rink sunday. tuesday does look interesting on the gfs. the latest cmc shows the squashed version. i would think suppression/weaker, but still workable system would make more sense, but we'll see what the 12z's have to say. Totally agree, but again looking at the surface temps for us near the cities, each run is bumping a degree or two. Now its 29 or 30 with precip in the area. We've moved away from the mid to upper 20's look (at least on the Nam). Slow trend all season has been to warm the surface and decrease the precip. That's all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 The out of range NAM looks to be doing a similar progression as CMC. Just something to keep an eye on, it could completely screw up the spacing and the event itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 29 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nam seems very uneventful for the Saturday wave now. Very little precip north of EZF. Must be cold enough for snow in dc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. If I had to guess, I'd say part of it is sea surface temperatures--if the Atlantic is warming, it would make it much more difficult to get cold and stay cold in the costal plain. Unfortunately since that's global warming-driven, there's not much we can do about that. But would a northern-stream dominant flow also have an impact? I.e., are systems required to dig more without drying out too much (which seems to have been happening with nearly every storm inside 72 hours), which makes any set up pretty precarious? Maybe it's grasping at straws, but that is something that (hopefully) doesn't stick around forever, and wouldn't necessarily imply that even moderate snow in the DC-Baltimore area is just shy of a lost cause... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterFire said: If I had to guess, I'd say part of it is sea surface temperatures--if the Atlantic is warming, it would make it much more difficult to get cold and stay cold in the costal plain. Unfortunately since that's global warming-driven, there's not much we can do about that. But would a northern-stream dominant flow also have an impact? I.e., are systems required to dig more without drying out too much (which seems to have been happening with nearly every storm inside 72 hours), which makes any set up pretty precarious? Maybe it's grasping at straws, but that is something that (hopefully) doesn't stick around forever, and wouldn't necessarily imply that even moderate snow in the DC-Baltimore area is just shy of a lost cause... Lower mid Atlantic, northern mid Atlantic, northeast, have done fine compared to climo. So somehow the sea surface temp is only hostile here? And our temp issues are not just a winter phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: 12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip Doesnt seem to be as much northern stream interaction on tropical tidbits to me anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Doesnt seem to be as much northern stream interaction on tropical tidbits to me anyway Separation seems slightly worse but not game ending. This would still work the main vort is just weaker 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Wentzadelphia said: Separation seems slightly worse but not game ending. This would still work the main vort is just weaker Yeah it manages to be snowing some still at 114...see if it comes further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Separation seems slightly worse but not game ending. This would still work the main vort is just weaker It gets snow to here. Maybe .3 to .4 on the precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, WinterFire said: If I had to guess, I'd say part of it is sea surface temperatures--if the Atlantic is warming, it would make it much more difficult to get cold and stay cold in the costal plain. Unfortunately since that's global warming-driven, there's not much we can do about that. But would a northern-stream dominant flow also have an impact? I.e., are systems required to dig more without drying out too much (which seems to have been happening with nearly every storm inside 72 hours), which makes any set up pretty precarious? Maybe it's grasping at straws, but that is something that (hopefully) doesn't stick around forever, and wouldn't necessarily imply that even moderate snow in the DC-Baltimore area is just shy of a lost cause... Over the past 40 years there have been more storms than I can count when NW burbs get significant snow accumulation and DC gets nothing. Lack of elevation and marginal temps at work, and it only becomes more of a detriment as we get further along in the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 it looks like our Tuesday monster could end up being sheared and miss us south. Just thinking of PSU fail possibilites 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 12z icon looks much farther SE. I can’t tell if it’s doing a NAM/CMc progression though, don’t have H5 yet just slp/precip Looks like Saturday we will have major icing according to 12z ICON in a lot of places. Looks like surface temps stay below freezing no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 ICON is 12 hours of cold powder on Tuesday. Temps in the low to mid 20s. I'm going to just file this away in "I'll believe it when I see it" for now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Yeah. ICON is a nasty ice storm Saturday and a moderate snow for Tuesday. We take. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: it looks like our Tuesday monster could end up being sheared and miss us south. Just thinking of PSU fail possibilites Progressive could mean colder and that makes the ICON evolution a possibility. Models will continue to have problems in the short range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 9 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: ICON is 12 hours of cold powder on Tuesday. Temps in the low to mid 20s. I'm going to just file this away in "I'll believe it when I see it" for now. Id rather have the historic ICE snowstorm than the garbage 3-4 inches the icon gives us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 A little old but still a nice illustration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 After 12z runs probably should start a separate thread for possible Saturday event 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: Id rather have the historic ICE snowstorm than the garbage 3-4 inches the icon gives us I dunno, I'd be so happy to have light snow falling all day with actual winter temps. So sick of non accumulating snow. I'd love what the ICON is advertising. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, notvirga! said: After 12z runs probably should start a separate thread for possible Saturday event That would kill the event I say we never make separate threads that way it snows because thats how it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. The overall temps have warmed over the last several years and on an hourly bases it doesn't get below 32 very often in any given winter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I dunno, I'd be so happy to have light snow falling all day with actual winter temps. So sick of non accumulating snow. I'd love what the ICON is advertising. Yeah, but you’re more likely to find more snow on the bridge in Brooklyn it is selling than you will from the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kgottwald Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: Cutoff lows ftw 2018, the year of the atmospheric river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 how does the GFS not get any precip into the area on Saturday? like how is this possible? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS looks uneventful for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, ovechkin said: Lower mid Atlantic, northern mid Atlantic, northeast, have done fine compared to climo. So somehow the sea surface temp is only hostile here? And our temp issues are not just a winter phenomenon. Sure, I don't think it's the only hostile issue here. I mentioned the Northern Stream dominance this year, which would help to explain why 40N or so and north are at/above climo. There's also a certain amount of bad luck too, of course, but the warming SST profiles do impact temps year round--the biggest difference for our region vs further north is that we were super marginal to begin with. So Philly can warm from 27 to 29 and be fine; we can't warm from 31 to 33 and be fine in mid-winter. Anyway, all of that is to say that, while we are stuck with global warming as an influence in our increasingly-crappy winters, I am hopeful that there is a specific driver in this winter (the NS dominance) that isn't permanent. But for now, it's hard to feel confident in any of the colder/wetter solutions we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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