chris21 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Anything marginal is rain in the DC area. The "ice threat" is code for more rain. Not that ice on trees is fun or anything. I'll take 50 and sunny over mud and broken trees. We had a nice ice storm that accumulated on the roads here in nw dc less than two weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks pretty weak for the region in general. A light sleet/freezing rain event. Thank you. I was wondering what was happening with the major ice storm for this weekend. Not that anything will be locked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Thank you. I was wondering what was happening with the major ice storm for this weekend. Not that anything will be locked in... Precip total from the 6z Euro. GFS is lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 At 90 6z euro has the departing TPV much stronger and slower to leave. System in the lower plains is weaker. Extrapolating another shift east. Guidance is slowly succumbing to the seasonal trend not to phase and cut storms west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Still chasing the big one. Not sure it's going to happen this year. Got about a month and a half left to see if we can get crushed by a HECS. Good morning! I think we got it in us. Hell. Could be sooner rather than later! The Tuesday threat could potentially be trending the way. Fingers crossed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, jayyy said: Poor @dailylurker this winter has made you miserable. I’d probably laugh at every threat too with the winter you all are having down there. We’ve now comfortably surpassed 30” on the season up this way and both next Tuesday and beyond show serious potential, especially for inland areas. I’ll most certainly be interested Yeah.. I'm pretty bitter lol. Any threat is going to be funny to me after the joke I've experienced with models this winter. Gfs does look better for early week. Couple more ticks east and just maybe.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: At 90 6z euro has the departing TPV much stronger and slower to leave. System in the lower plains is weaker. Extrapolating another shift east. Guidance is slowly succumbing to the seasonal trend not to phase and cut storms west. I think we have a decent shot at some solid snow on Tuesday, especially in our neck of the woods, with a few more adjustments East over the next 3-4 days. The threat certainly looks better on the 6z GFS/Euro than it did yesterday. Let’s see if a trend continues moving forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, Scraff said: Good morning! I think we got it in us. Hell. Could be sooner rather than later! The Tuesday threat could potentially be trending the way. Fingers crossed... Next Tuesday could end up east enough for you guys to cash in on a biggie. If not then, there is a long range threat being honked by GFS/EPS around the 24th/25th (after a big lakes cutter reloads the pattern next weekend ) This threat appears to be a strong Miller A with ample cold air around - which could be major snowstorm for 90+% of this forum. Obviously we are WAY too far out to be talking specifics about it, but the overall pattern around that time looks ripe. MJO will be phase 8, -NAO will be freshly reloaded with a nicely placed ridge out west. Lots of time for things to change clearly, but the threat potential looks to go out at least another 2 weeks (outside of a brief few day warm up as the pattern reloads late next week) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: Next Tuesday could end up east enough for you guys to cash in on a biggie. If not then, there is a long range threat being honked by GFS/EPS around the 24th/25th (after a big lakes cutter reloads the pattern next weekend ) This threat appears to be a strong Miller A with ample cold air around - which could be major snowstorm for 90+% of this forum. Obviously we are WAY too far out to be talking specifics about it, but the overall pattern around that time looks ripe. MJO will be phase 8, -NAO will be freshly reloaded with a nicely placed ridge out west. I wouldn’t assume later next week is a cutter either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. It will snow again in DC!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like 19" of rain to me, yes? Ironically that's actually far more believable than 19" of snow.Is this a real threat? Are folks bing sarcastic . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t assume later next week is a cutter either. Good point. That’s very true. Models have showed cutters in the long range all winter long just to move them 500+ miles East come storm time 1-2 weeks later. Next 2-3 weeks should be fun around these parts. Seriously can’t complain about tracking 6-7-8 potential winter events over a 2 week span in a niña winter. Dc proper has just had horrific luck with temps in what has been an otherwise awesome pattern. Any winter that produces climo totals IMBY by February 11th over 5+ storms is pretty solid in my book. All this winter is missing for our area is the elusive region wide biggie. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn’t assume later next week is a cutter either. Was about to post the same thing. I don't know how anyone can be sure anything is cutting until it's still showing it like 2 days from the storm actually happening. The storm for Tuesday has shifted hundreds of miles east in a day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Any 6z euro update for saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 50 minutes ago, CAPE said: Precip total from the 6z Euro. GFS is lighter. Oh ok I see it here...looks like its trending lighter...i assume stil mostly ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 WB 6Z EPS Later Monday and Tuesday period needs to be watched. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: Oh ok I see it here...looks like its trending lighter...i assume stil mostly ice? Correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month! This looks like a match to every big DC snow period. And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. Yea, but even among those 5 events, the only one that would really been that big of storm, if i recall correctly, is the two-day Miller B two weeks ago that hit NYC. Ji has been correct. Most things seem to have also trended drier, faster, etc, as they have approached this region this winter. And many of these events were not even that close to stay all-snow, despite what the models suggested was possible a few days ahead of time. . I could live with missing a storm because you live in the city and the snow/rain line sets up in Fairfax... But most of these storms have been an all-encompassing screw job for the entire close-in DC region, and it all just seems to fall apart on approach. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6Z GFS is an absolute mauling out here for Tuesday. And it is really close to a mauling for everyone. And it has really turned into a Monday/Tuesday snow event now. With training on the boundary right into our area. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 52 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said: Is this a real threat? Are folks bing sarcastic . It'll be a cold day in hades before that happens for anybody close in to DC or South. Now 19" of rain? I could see that with real flooding being a concern. We seem to do that pretty well around here now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, IronTy said: We seem to do that pretty well around here now. Cutoff lows ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: 6Z GFS is an absolute mauling out here for Tuesday. And it is really close to a mauling for everyone. And it has really turned into a Monday/Tuesday snow event now. With training on the boundary right into our area. It's very cold at the surface for the entire event, even for DC. Teens to around 20 for the entire thing. Seeing as how everything has trended to 32-35 and white rain for DC this year I remain skeptical. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Psu you nailed it. The models are trending better with hanging the TPV around more which is suppressing the follow up wave. The 00z & 6z cmc go as far as making it so slow to depart that no true storm would form because there’s no spacing. Few more shifts and dc thru Philly are in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: It's very cold at the surface for the entire event, even for DC. Teens to around 20 for the entire thing. Seeing as how everything has trended to 32-35 and white rain for DC this year I remain skeptical. This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. I'd take my chances any day with that sounding. Even if it was sleet it would actually be fun because it would be so cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: This is DC early Tuesday morning while the Shenandoah Valley is getting crushed. The GFS surface map shows this as sleet. When in fact it is ripping fatties. That is really close there around and just above 850mb, looks right at or a hair below 0. I'd think rates would cool it, if they're good enough. Not to over-analyze such details this far out, but yeah, that is still interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: yup pattern looks awful DCA is up to 250" on the season based on fantasy clown maps 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not time to mess around today but I briefly looked at the icon surface panels at 114-120 and then looked at surface temps. I was in CO in 1994 so didnt experience that wild winter. I remain very very intrigued for the next 7 days. Just wild what's being spit out daily now Yeah, if we can't get a decent snow, I guess the next "best" thing in terms of interesting stuff would be sleet and ice! Or I'd prefer that to 30s and cold rain at least. Honestly, in the time I've been here (since 2001) I cannot recall a really good ice event with the exception of Feb. 2007 I think. We've had some light ice accumulation here and there around the metro DC area. But the sleet bomb in 2007 stands out to me most. Maybe the sleet in March a couple of years back, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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