jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NCEP D6-7 QPF forecast. Wooof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 the artice airmass just up and vanished on my forecast one day in the 20s the rest mid to upper 30s with 1 40 lol so much for that big cold air mass. at least we got some snow so far out of the pattern change. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 42 minutes ago, jayyy said: NCEP D6-7 QPF forecast. Wooof Woof for ice and rain sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hard to get excited about ice. The epic pattern culminates with a string of rainy days that breaks tree limbs and looks shiny until it melts then you have nothing to show for it but broken tree limbs. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Hard to get excited about ice. The epic pattern culminates with a string of rainy days that breaks tree limbs and looks shiny until it melts then you have nothing to show for it but broken tree limbs. True... but it's better then this snow pattern we were supposedly going into that has turned into a big lie... don't worry though... large cutter brings 50s to near 60 Day 9 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, yoda said: True... but it's better then this snow pattern we were supposedly going into... don't worry though... large cutter brings 50s to near 60 Day 9 Not that long ago there were comments as to how we would be sick of tracking snow. This turned into a giant ax in the forehead. What can you do. Just some epic bad luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: Woof for ice and rain sure I’d say a week out, p type is highly unknown. Highly doubt we get a rain storm though. Bring on the ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, yoda said: True... but it's better then this snow pattern we were supposedly going into that has turned into a big lie... don't worry though... large cutter brings 50s to near 60 Day 9 60's sounds better then chasing some fantom 4-6" cold smoke that turns to 33 degree rain 12 hours before starting. I'd love to see some dry weather. I'd take 50's and dry over this epic mud pattern lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 GFS shows a snow storm for Tuesday. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 hours ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gfs is 100% no doubt the iciest 7 day model run I've ever seen. You have to root for that. All timer. I've always said I want a foot of ice. Well, maybe not realistic in 1 storm but... A week ago, it looked like we were getting a severe ice storm this week. So I’m not buying anything at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: A week ago, it looked like we were getting a severe ice storm this week. So I’m not buying anything at this point. Anything marginal is rain in the DC area. The "ice threat" is code for more rain. Not that ice on trees is fun or anything. I'll take 50 and sunny over mud and broken trees. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 37 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Anything marginal is rain in the DC area. The "ice threat" is code for more rain. Not that ice on trees is fun or anything. I'll take 50 and sunny over mud and broken trees. Unfortunately it looks like for the most part the only non rain p-type we will be seeing this weekend into next week will be sleet/freezing rain. Not really interested in the ice either, with all the trees I have. Sleet is ok and I guess I am used to the idea now with all the sleet I got here last night lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Is Saturday supposed to be weak sauce up here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Gfs starting to beef next Tuesday into a real threat. Of course, lots to iron out but... a big storm is looking more likely. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Is Saturday supposed to be weak sauce up here? It’s going to be icy as all hell for NoVa and MD according to the euro and gfs this weekend before the snow threat early next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 After a big cutter later next week, the EPS/GFS reload the pattern with a nice west coast ridge and subsequent east coast trough, followed by a big snow threat - could be our best shot all year. Cold air with rapid intensification off the coast of Hatterus. Multiple models seeing the 24th-26th as a ripe period for a storm to bomb out along the coast. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Poor @dailylurker this winter has made you miserable. I’d probably laugh at every threat too with the winter you all are having down there. We’ve now comfortably surpassed 30” on the season up this way and both next Tuesday and beyond show serious potential, especially for inland areas. I’ll most certainly be interested 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 yup pattern looks awful 5 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Hopefully we get a nice system from the gulf with no worries of rain/snow. Get a nice fatty riding up the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Still chasing the big one. Not sure it's going to happen this year. Got about a month and a half left to see if we can get crushed by a HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 06z GEFS with a much better HP position and strength for Tues. SLP seems a bit weaker on the mean than 0z but has more of a blocked look as it moves ENE after redevelopment instead of up the coast. Wait and see but good trends , imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: yup pattern looks awful Looks like 19" of rain to me, yes? Ironically that's actually far more believable than 19" of snow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, IronTy said: Looks like 19" of rain to me, yes? Ironically that's actually far more believable than 19" of snow. I've seen this same map every morning since Christmas. We've probably had 300" of digital snow and about 6" of slop in reality. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Is Saturday supposed to be weak sauce up here? Looks pretty weak for the region in general. A light sleet/freezing rain event. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, dailylurker said: Anything marginal is rain in the DC area. The "ice threat" is code for more rain. Not that ice on trees is fun or anything. I'll take 50 and sunny over mud and broken trees. We had a nice ice storm that accumulated on the roads here in nw dc less than two weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Looks pretty weak for the region in general. A light sleet/freezing rain event. Thank you. I was wondering what was happening with the major ice storm for this weekend. Not that anything will be locked in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: Thank you. I was wondering what was happening with the major ice storm for this weekend. Not that anything will be locked in... Precip total from the 6z Euro. GFS is lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 At 90 6z euro has the departing TPV much stronger and slower to leave. System in the lower plains is weaker. Extrapolating another shift east. Guidance is slowly succumbing to the seasonal trend not to phase and cut storms west. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Still chasing the big one. Not sure it's going to happen this year. Got about a month and a half left to see if we can get crushed by a HECS. Good morning! I think we got it in us. Hell. Could be sooner rather than later! The Tuesday threat could potentially be trending the way. Fingers crossed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, jayyy said: Poor @dailylurker this winter has made you miserable. I’d probably laugh at every threat too with the winter you all are having down there. We’ve now comfortably surpassed 30” on the season up this way and both next Tuesday and beyond show serious potential, especially for inland areas. I’ll most certainly be interested Yeah.. I'm pretty bitter lol. Any threat is going to be funny to me after the joke I've experienced with models this winter. Gfs does look better for early week. Couple more ticks east and just maybe.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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