Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Check out the 850 temperatures. They're above 0 nearly the entire time. Not sure of any other levels. ETA: And south winds at 850 as well. I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 The blocking is really helpful on the gfs Never seen so many systems go straight north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The blocking is really helpful on the gfs Never seen so many systems go straight north We got 1040 highs that fold like a cheap suit. Models take the L almost due north from MS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I don't need to tell y'all that La Plata is a snow town. Hmph. Back to light snow after period of sleet. A few pingers mixing in. Car tops and trash can lids BURIED. Recording a strong trace. 32/32. Wrong thread. My bad. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 4 minutes ago, diatae said: I don't need to tell y'all that La Plata is a snow town. Hmph. Back to light snow after period of sleet. A few pingers mixing in. Car tops and trash can lids BURIED. Recording a strong trace. 32/32. Ya probably want to put this in the other thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend I know it is the NAM but for us it is revealing as NAM for tonight and tomorrow had me at 0.9. 6.2 is basically all Saturday. Again for what it is worth given give the models and the results so far... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Would precipitation here be freezing rain? How shallow should the freezing air near the surface be in order to make sleet / freezing rain? I understand for sleet the freezing air should be deeper near the surface, I just don’t know generally how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
diatae Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 23 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ya probably want to put this in the other thread Well drat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, diatae said: Well drat No worries, lol Been a lot of threads lately! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL! Sorry about that. Not quite sure how to answer that, though. I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking. Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time. Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events. But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 How is saturday looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 WB 18Z EURO at end of run. Icy mess, surface temps below freezing area wide. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Oddly I am kind of looking forward to the ice event, which I normally dread given all the trees surrounding my house.. Probably because it doesn't appear to be even close to anything devastating, and more likely to be harmless and maybe add to the winter scene. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 hours ago, stormtracker said: Hi, you must be new here. My name is Randy. Humble brag here, I was one of the founders of this place. But that's not my claim to fame. I coined the term Dr. No and have done nothing of note since. I'm the administrator here. I'd like to welcome you to the Mid Atlantic forum. What day this week did you move here? Holy shit. I literally laughed my ass off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 28 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL! Sorry about that. Not quite sure how to answer that, though. I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking. Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time. Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events. But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day! See I haven't experienced enough ice storms to know if I'd enjoy a bona-fide one...think I prefer snow (although I kinda like a glaze on top of snow though!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z EURO at end of run. Icy mess, surface temps below freezing area wide. Any snow to start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Can someone share the 18z Euro for the second wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Just now, Chris78 said: Any snow to start? some 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Any snow to start? Maybe briefly, but more likely mixed with sleet. Possibly an hour or 2 of snow near the PA line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Can someone share the 18z Euro for the second wave? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 34 minutes ago, CAPE said: Maybe briefly, but more likely mixed with sleet. Possibly an hour or 2 of snow near the PA line. It’s close NW of 95. You can see the column trying to cool but the storm isn’t quite amplified to pull it off like the NAM did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s close NW of 95. You can see the column trying to cool but the storm isn’t quite amplified to pull it off like the NAM did. I'm not worried. It just wants to snow here now. We're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 WB 18Z EPS for Tuesday some increase in snow mean compared to 12Z. Maybe the start of a Good trend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM looks like a tiny bit of snow for some, to lots of sleet, to possibly back to snow for Saturday. It's trying to give us a snowy day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 NAM backed off the snowier look. Back to sleet/zr bomb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: NAM looks like a tiny bit of snow for some, to lots of sleet, to possibly back to snow for Saturday. It's trying to give us a snowy day! 12k Nam this way is pretty much a black out down here on Sat. 1.20” of freezing rain. Even half would be incredible for it to actually come to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Looks like great conditions to stand outside looking up at the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 Some of the ice numbers the nam is throwing out for southern va are kinda crazy. Approaching 1.5” in spots. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 22 minutes ago, stormtracker said: NAM backed off the snowier look. Back to sleet/zr bomb of course it did 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2021 Share Posted February 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: of course it did Still shows snow for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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