WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said: Here’s a model run I saved from December. I’m sure the final result was somewhat like this, but either way, Canada was def a bit different but both had similar ridging issues on EC and trough axis with main vort Then it’s gonna snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Some improvement on the 12z EPS. Stronger/souther NA vortex...better confluence...stronger surface high pressure compared to 0z. Still work to do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 42 minutes ago, Ji said: indeed....how do we get that transfer from KY to the coast. 5050low? some combo of a little slower with the departing TPV to our northeast...a little less phasing of the NS/SS to our west, the trough out west to shift east slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: some combo of a little slower with the departing TPV to our northeast...a little less phasing of the NS/SS to our west, the trough out west to shift east slightly that's it? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Here’s a model run I saved from December. I’m sure the final result was somewhat like this, but either way, Canada was def a bit different but both had similar ridging issues on EC and trough axis with main vort Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December. The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW. I would take my chances on a similar setup in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December. The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW. I would take my chances on a similar setup in February. Oh I def agree. The low level cold is 10x better, but mid level would be a different story. Idc if it’s 0f the day before nothing stops the mid levels unless we see better vort pass and confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Both the GEFS and EPS really like the wave later next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just got around to seeing the Euro...Ya know, I'm beginning to look at our history as Bob suggested and adding a "is there precedent" approach to modeling and such. Has there ever been a storm that did what the Euro just did? (though not as bad as 0z) HP in that location that strong...and just freezing rain and sleet? Lol And heck, is there even precedent this season? I mean...you're telling me the blocking would break down to that extent just at that time? Uh... (sorry for the mini-rant...just a bit annoyed because I see next week as our best shot at a BECS or bigger if we can get it under us...best shot we've had in 5 years, imo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just wanted to pop in as a former mid-Atlantic person (PG county MD and Powhatan VA for a total of 10 years) and say I'm pulling for one of these to be a big hitter for you guys. So many chances, I feel like one of them is going to break your way. This is still the sub-forum I come to for long range discussions - best info on all the boards right here IMO. Good luck! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A 1007 low just kicked a 1040 high in the balls and said get out of my way. The SE ridge is the only feature of this storm that immobile, incompressible and inevitable. The track of the high maybe within 300 miles of the axis of heaviest snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea but the main problem with December IMO was it was December. The surface low took a perfect track but there was a ton of mid level warmth that blasted well NW. I would take my chances on a similar setup in February. For some there was little wrong with December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m trying a new tactic. I’m gonna try telling the models what to do and see how that works out. At this point, why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At this point, why not Obviously we've been too soft. Time to tell old man winter who is boss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The NAM gives us a good snow event this Weekend which is nice because the NAM is apparently is the new king this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: Nam is a snowstorm i81 and west for sat/sun. And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast. But snow is maybe not that far to their west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast. But snow is maybe not that far to their west. Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nam is mostly snow in Leesburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft? Check out the 850 temperatures. They're above 0 nearly the entire time. Not sure of any other levels. ETA: And south winds at 850 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Wow, very close to a snowstorm on Saturday for my area. Starts as snow and then ice just barely gets far enough NW to get me. Just a small adjustment and 95 and west might have a storm. Would be kinda funny if this ends up being the best snowstorm for the area this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 WB 12K 18Z NAM if this verifies will help make up for the first 30 years of my life living in the rip-off zone. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: Wow, very close to a snowstorm on Saturday for my area. Starts as snow and then ice just barely gets far enough NW to get me. Just a small adjustment and 95 and west might have a storm. Would be kinda funny if this ends up being the best snowstorm for the area this winter. I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Kmlwx said: I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. For sure. Just saying that it is floating under the radar. Everyone was focused on the mid-December fail. Then everyone was focused on the early Feb fail. And now everyone is focused on tonight's win/fail, depending on your location, and then storms for next week. Hardly anyone seems focused on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I have been around since wright brothers days. I am 63 so been following snow a lot longer. I do not remember any time this active. Northern polar vortex...active southern jet in a Nina. Bethlehem Pa in 1977-78 two giant storms after about a week apart. That was cool after many dry years. But today in North Wales Pa...We have lots of snow and an active week ahead. I have family...Hoboken to Richmond. Storms are coming. Of course after I post this...I am sure the models will all dry up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 whoa, I just saw the nam. WTF?? That bitch is heavier and close to a snowstorm for even DC. I mean, I don't expect snow, but it's a healthier, colder system. But.... NAM....which has been pretty good as of late 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12K 18Z NAM if this verifies will help make up for the first 30 years of my life living in the rip-off zone. That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: whoa, I just saw the nam. WTF?? What you should be saying is, whoa, why am I looking at the NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 RGEM pretty much whiffs I-81...but it's still sleetly east of there for pretty much everybody. Good thing its a shit model too 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend WB 12K NAM 2 day total back to 1 am Friday so does not include Wave 1. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 gfs might be a little better this run with the next week system. still lifts the southern wave too soon, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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