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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I do a lot of bitching and moaning when a storm fails for my area. But it is mostly in jest. I am 4 inches from climo this winter. I have nothing to complain about. It appears to me that the changing climo is effecting the coastal plain much more than our areas. While elevation has always been an advantage for us, I am wondering if it will become an even bigger advantage as we move further out in time. 

It is, with big qpf events increasing places that have just enough latitude or elevation to overcome the warming (which is most pronounced in the boundary layer) actually are getting more snowstorms.  But places that couldnt afford to add a few degrees and stay snow...womp womp 

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d be careful with the para and cmc right now. I’m not saying sleet/ice won’t be an issue next week,  but idk this vort pass screams bgm to Boston to me. That’s just me though not trying to be a Debbie downer

When does something ever not favor BGM to Bahston?

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d be careful with the para and cmc right now. I’m not saying sleet/ice won’t be an issue next week,  but idk this vort pass screams bgm to Boston to me. That’s just me though not trying to be a Debbie downer

Did you post that in the philly forum as well or only in here? 

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3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d be careful with the para and cmc right now. I’m not saying sleet/ice won’t be an issue next week,  but idk this vort pass screams bgm to Boston to me. That’s just me though not trying to be a Debbie downer

depends...if you focus on the NS yes.  But the trend this year is for the NS and SS not to phase and for the SS SW to run out ahead and ride the costal baroclinic boundary.  If this is the time they all phase up in the ohio valley like guidance has shown at range ALL YEAR..then yes.  I am betting the seasonal trend holds.  

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35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It doesn’t matter how much consensus there is. It just almost never happens. You can rely upon that.

Take  some kind of Miracle to get snow and cold. I've given up on this winter , looks like the cold air next week erodes and all the blocking has delivered practically nothing.  

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7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d be careful with the para and cmc right now. I’m not saying sleet/ice won’t be an issue next week,  but idk this vort pass screams bgm to Boston to me. That’s just me though not trying to be a Debbie downer

Dude...who the F knows what's going to happen, especially more than a few days out?

You may not be trying to be a Deb, but you *are* being one, especially in a forum that's losing its collective sh*t right now.

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9 minutes ago, SnowCane said:

My heart tells me we get crushed with snow next Tuesday.  My head tells me Tyler, TX to Alexandria, LA gets crushed with snow on Monday and we find a way to 33 and rain.

If this is a classic Nina screw job for us, then OKC STL and CHI is the likely jackpot.  Maybe add Dallas this time since the cold air is so far south.

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13 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Did you post that in the philly forum as well or only in here? 

Yeah I did. Trust me I want us both to score more than anyone. The HP is no joke so it’ll depend on the confluence and how strong the vort is. It’s fun to look at for now but I personally don’t buy it. Maybe thump to sleet/ice best case? don’t rip me too much just giving my .000002 cents. I feel all your pain honestly. Tbh though we all know in March or next winter you guys will get a HECS. Seems boom or bust anymore 

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah I did. Trust me I want us both to score more than anyone. The HP is no joke so it’ll depend on the confluence and how strong the vort is. It’s fun to look at for now but I personally don’t buy it. Maybe thump to sleet/ice best case? Just me though don’t rip me just giving me .000002 cents

READ THE ROOM

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Yeah I did. Trust me I want us both to score more than anyone. The HP is no joke so it’ll depend on the confluence and how strong the vort is. It’s fun to look at for now but I personally don’t buy it. Maybe thump to sleet/ice best case? don’t rip me too much just giving my .000002 cents. I feel all your pain honestly. Tbh though we all know in March or next winter you guys will get a HECS. Seems boom or bust anymore 

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

Agree.  @Wentzadelphia I think is a good guy, and adds to the conversation.  But yeah, need to read the room a bit more concerning the mood before posting something worded like that.  He may be right about next week, who knows, but no point in expounding on how it won't work right now.

Only other thing is, he really needs to keep his phone charged, LOL (gotta throw in some humor there, Wentz)!!! :D

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On the one hand the op GFS does drop 11" of snow on DC through the run.  I mean getting median snowfall in a 2 week period isnt a bad run.  On the other hand it does it by fringe after fringe after fringe with not a single flush hit and drops 40" not far to the NW so that part sucks.  But you adjust that just a smidge SE and...

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27 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You gotta read the room a lot better here.  WE like you and you're kind of an adopted subforum member, but you're still a foreigner.   People here are on edge and shit is setting people off easy.  I think we all know the dangers and more than ever, have skepticism with this storms like never before. 

My bad I wasn’t in the other thread so wasn’t paying attention, sorry fellas

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

My bad I wasn’t in the other thread so wasn’t paying attention, sorry fellas

I was curious why you think this wave will key on the NS SW track v the SS?  All season it seems to be a long range error to phase the streams in the midwest and in reality the SS ends up riding out ahead of the NS along the coastal boundary.  

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