WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 Is anybody realizing that what I said in about November is true. Modeled Arctic air just simply (rarely) cannot make it south and east in a Nina? The time frame usually 8-10 days. Then it collapses. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is anybody realizing that what I said in about November is true. Modeled Arctic air just simply (rarely) cannot make it south and east in a Nina? The time frame usually 8-10 days. Then it collapses. So it's not going to be -9 in DC on Monday morning? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, nj2va said: So it's not going to be -9 in DC on Monday morning? I’m gonna say no 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: So it's not going to be -9 in DC on Monday morning? Recall there was actually quite a bit of decent consensus from the ensembles that decent cold was coming but now it really doesn't look that great, most of the cold is out West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m gonna say no I want my snow squalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Recall there was actually quite a bit of decent consensus from the ensembles that decent cold was coming but now it really doesn't look that great, most of the cold is out West It doesn’t matter how much consensus there is. It just almost never happens. You can rely upon that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS. I'm about to unravel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS. I'm about to unravel Looking Euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The ICON is so close to a crush job on Tuesday/Wednesday. Verbatim it is a lot of ice in the Winchester area I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS. I'm about to unravel take it easy. its 138 hours out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 ICON has a temp of about 20 degrees in DC on Tuesday with heavy something falling from the sky lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, CAPE said: Looking Euroish. well since the euro model is sending out paper airplanes to gather data now cause of Covid....i dont think we should worry until we get into NAM range 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 SE ridge is just too strong for a snow event next week. No matter how you configure the PV, there's not working around it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS. I'm about to unravel You and we like the para a lot more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: ICON has a temp of about 20 degrees in DC on Tuesday with heavy something falling from the sky lol. Mid-Upper Teens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2021 Author Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The ICON is so close to a crush job on Tuesday/Wednesday. Verbatim it is a lot of ice in the Winchester area I suppose. Quick, start a thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 The PARA has 16 inches of snow for DC by 00z Wednesday and 18 inches for Baltimore. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: well since the euro model is sending out paper airplanes to gather data now cause of Covid....i dont think we should worry until we get into NAM range In 20 years this might be the first time I legitimately laughed at something you said. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Is anybody realizing that what I said in about November is true. Modeled Arctic air just simply (rarely) cannot make it south and east in a Nina? The time frame usually 8-10 days. Then it collapses. There are 2 types of Nina's though. Ones with a more suppressed pac heat flux and central pac ridge...and ones that have a more poleward heat flux and more blocking, either in the EPO or NAO side. This year is most definitely the second. In those nina types historically cold has no problem coming east and we have had some major cold periods in those types. What typically mutes our snowfall in those nina's is the lack of STJ and so we often have long dry cold periods. This year has been odd in that the STJ has been much more active then normal and we have had no shortage of systems tracking under us, and we have had a more poleward heat flux and great blocking...but yet we continue to suffer from slight temperature issues storm after storm despite those facts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 @WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking. Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern. 2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically. I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck. We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out. This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms. 2018 was one of those in DC. 2013 and 2001 are famous for that. 1969. There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987. There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You and we like the para a lot more. PARA and ICON is not a bad camp to start with. I will take that as an opening bid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: PARA and ICON is not a bad camp to start with. I will take that as an opening bid. add the GGEM 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Even next week is trending not so great on the GFS. I'm about to unravel PARA.... it makes more sense synoptically imo also. Guidance has been phasing the SS with the NS out to our west all season at that range when in reality they have remained separate with the SS running the polar not the arctic boundary. No reason to think this next wave will be any different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WinterWxLuvr one possible bright side to our changing climo though...is if this winter is indicative that perhaps even Nina's will trend more active in the future then perhaps our nina climo might not be as hostile to big snowstorms as it once was...provided we get some blocking. Honestly this year I think bad luck has a lot more to do with things then pattern. 2 HECS level storms missed DC and Baltimore by a hair geographically. I don't think there was anything inherently wrong with the pattern that caused that...it was just bad luck. We will have a few more chances for that luck to even out. This wouldn't be the first year though this happened...there are other years where the pattern was better then the results due to bad luck and just missing a few storms. 2018 was one of those in DC. 2013 and 2001 are famous for that. 1969. There are examples in other places where we got the luck and they got screwed like NYC in 1987. There are also examples of years where we outperformed the pattern like 2014 and 2000 imo. I do a lot of bitching and moaning when a storm fails for my area. But it is mostly in jest. I am 4 inches from climo this winter. I have nothing to complain about. It appears to me that the changing climo is effecting the coastal plain much more than our areas. While elevation has always been an advantage for us, I am wondering if it will become an even bigger advantage as we move further out in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 i am not sure what the GGEM ptype is but its showing extreme amount of precip into upper teens lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Please let the GGEM verify(it wont)..and I will call it a winter(i wont) 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I do a lot of bitching and moaning when a storm fails for my area. But it is mostly in jest. I am 4 inches from climo this winter. I have nothing to complain about. It appears to me that the changing climo is effecting the coastal plain much more than our areas. While elevation has always been an advantage for us, I am wondering if it will become an even bigger advantage as we move further out in time. It will and already has 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: You and we like the para a lot more. Just saw it. When I say this, I'm 100% serious. Just give me that and this winter can just end. I'm tired of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, Ji said: i am not sure what the GGEM ptype is but its showing extreme amount of precip into upper teens lol Starts as snow along 95, stays all snow from IAD NW. Sleet mixes in along 95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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