psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol, block relaxes a little...rain. Not much of the wave left. It’s light rain because the southern feature sheared out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, block relaxes a little...rain. The NS SW came across on top of it instead of phasing and the southern SW got left behind. Eta: that never works. We need the southern energy in front and the NS diving in behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Here comes another Deep South snow ok this is comical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Lol arctic cold press incoming at 252 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: Lol arctic cold press incoming at 252 Curious, why is that a "lol"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 With a 1050mb HP just north of ND at 264... nothing is going to amplify for us IMO... cold air will crush it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, cbmclean said: Curious, why is that a "lol"? Ji would complain of no cold air and post the temp maps... now the arctic air shows up and no blue for Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Though is the NAO retrograding west past Day 10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 @stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow. If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 This is a lolhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2021011600&fh=240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS Phasing wasn't even close on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @stormtracker I’m looking at the ensemble members in the eps and gefs that had hits from that wave on the 25th. They phase that NS wave that the op run just ran out ahead. That has to be behind the southern feature and phase. Otherwise the southern feature won’t survive the shred factory flow. If that doesn’t happen we need to wait as the trough/ridge retrograde until it pulls back enough to let the eastern trough axis pull back some. Yeah, from run to run I keep looking for meaningful changes up top. Until then we will be waving to the south at our snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: This is a lol https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2021011600&fh=240 That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 That’s sad. Someone in this sub did something really really really wrong and you need to make amends. Now There is a Jonah on this boat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There are 3 southern waves there...we need one to phase with the NS Phasing wasn't even close on gfs It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 It wasn’t close but it wasn’t so far off that it’s impossible. It got the NS SW out ahead of the southern feature. No dice. It needed to dig a little more and get in behind. Timing was off. I would kill for a cutter at this point . Better chance of seeing snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Looks like a west based Baffin Bay block in LR GFS tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Looks like a west based Baffin Bay block in LR GFS tonight Who gives a ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, from run to run I keep looking for meaningful changes up top. Until then we will be waving to the south at our snow That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west. The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 If we had a plus ao/nao and-pna....we would have a +16 January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: That block is blocking lol but IMO the bigger issue is the orientation of the trough/ridge to our west. The western trough cuts off and sits in a bad spot on the op gfs. Too far west for anything to amplify through the ridge not far enough west to let something dig into the east. That western trough needs to either shift east and link up with the eastern trough or more likely pull back enough to let the ridge pull west and something can amplify in the east. Yes... but it doesnt help to have a 1050mb HP pressing down into the Central Plains... confluence crushes it all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 The para through d10 is as bad as gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Para makes the gfs look like the cras. Awful awful run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Been trying to say for years. Were too north south east and west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Between the gfs para and ggem....a combined 1000 hours of weather simulation and not a flake till 384 on the para Edit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Between the gfs para and ggem....a combined 1000 hours of weather simulation and not a flake till 384 on the para 372...we flip to rain by 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 What an incredibly frustrating GFS and CMC run. As much as it sucks this is run after run leaving our region high and dry. Can’t discard it. I wonder what happens to the pattern after the nao block retrogrades completely and has to rebuild. Probably have a pattern relaxation and you know we’ll probably fit a rain event in there somewhere with our luck See my post as to what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 16, 2021 Share Posted January 16, 2021 Too suppressed even for NC. This panel caught my eye though: 540 line down almost to Miami, and snow breaking out over the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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