yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Major ice ongoing at 156 i81 corridor... 999mb SLP SE IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Ugly for us...ice and probably gonna change over really quickly. Was hoping for some secondary on the coast or something ETA: wedge looks dug in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Heavy Rain 162. Plenty of time for the one to evolve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Ugly for us...ice and probably gonna change over really quickly. Was hoping for some secondary on the coast or something ETA: wedge looks dug in Wedge blasted away... 53 at DCA at 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ugly for us...barely ice and probably gonna change over really quickly. Was hoping for some secondary on the coast or something And yet, like psu said...storms have not been cutting in this pattern. I mean seriously....how do you cut into a dang 1040 HP? Lol And also...how often has such a heavy ice-rain scenario actually happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, if that high could hold or it was like 12 hours slower/further west...that would be a blockbuster snow event My question is...why wouldn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And yet, like psu said...storms have not been cutting in this pattern. I mean seriously....how do you cut into a dang 1040 HP? Lol Yeah, Canadian shows the scenario we want 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: My question is...why wouldn't it? I'm guessing a LLJ of 60-80 kts blasting warm air northward will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I'm guessing a LLJ of 60-80 kts blasting warm air northward will do it LLJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 LLJ?Larry Johnson 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Eps has it hugging the coast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: LLJ? Low-level jet. ....or Granmama. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 NAM is nasty for Sat thing. Lots of sleet and ZR 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: NAM is nasty for Sat/Sunday thing. Lots of sleet and ZR 27/22 and ripping sleet at 84... how nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, yoda said: 27/22 and ripping sleet at 84... how nice And gearing up for something else after that. I think the Sat thing is all but a done deal...Ice storm. But I think we have some room for improvement for the next week storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: And gearing up for something else after that. I think the Sat thing is all but a done deal...Ice storm. But I think we have some room for improvement for the next week storm. Ji said EPS was a coastal hugger for next week... that still suggests suckiness to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Ji said EPS was a coastal hugger for next week... that still suggests suckiness to me Huh? Why would a coastal hugger vs an inland storm be something that sucks? OP had the low in like IN/KY 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Huh? Why would a coastal hugger vs an inland storm be something that sucks? OP had the low in like IN/KY this doesn't inspire confidence to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: this doesn't inspire confidence to me I get that, but I'm saying..a coastal track would be better 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 I get that, but I'm saying..a coastal track would be betterBetter for ice-mix. Let's see what the individual members say. Euro at 162 might as well be gfs at 385 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 2 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, Canadian shows the scenario we want The CMC nailed tomorrow's event over the weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 LWX morning disco... even they are tired lol (note sleep instead of sleet ) .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A very active pattern continues into the long term period. A strong and broad area of arctic high pressure remains anchored along the US/Canada border. Cold air will remain locked in at the surface east of the Appalachians for much of the forecast period. As a result, temperatures do not get out of the 30s through at least the middle of next week. With cold air so locked into place, there will be a couple of shots at some more wintry precipitation through Tuesday. On Saturday, an area of low pressure will move along a stationary front through the southeast and then quickly offshore. Precipitation north and west of this low will fall as a wintry mix/freezing rain Saturday into early Sunday morning. Should the current model guidance be correct, could see a light coating of freezing rain with this system for much of the area, and perhaps even some sleep mixing in further north and west. This event will likely be too warm aloft for much (if any) snow. Precipitation tapers off Sunday, leading to a cool and dreary day. Still likely to see some light precipitation here and there. Might even start to see a few breaks of sun later in the afternoon. Cold arctic air remain anchored over the region Sunday night through Monday, with dry conditions expected during this time. Low temperatures on Sunday night will widely be in the teens to single digits. Tuesday will be the next chance for wintry weather. A stronger area of low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast before riding up the Appalachians. Energy transfer off the east coast could lead to a potentially significant winter weather event. At this point, the pattern would favor a freezing rain event with this as well. Will have to continue monitoring this as details become more finite as we get closer to the event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not sure what the RGEM is gonna do, but it's gearing up for something post 84 hours as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Not sure what the RGEM is gonna do, but it's gearing up for something post 84 hours as wellDepends on what algorithms Roger Smith pumped into it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 GFS has the sleet/ice event also..starts a little later tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS has the sleet/ice event also..starts a little later tho mainly sleet... RNK/AKQ though get crushed with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 06z PARA starts NW of i95 as snow on SAT at 84 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 Nice discussion here by Mount Holly on the possibilities for next week. They aren't buying the Euro/EPS idea so much. Monday/Tuesday... Uncertainty is very high in this period, as guidance is struggling to get a handle on the interaction between the Arctic High over the Central US and an intensifying southern stream disturbance. The EC (with the backing of most of its ensemble) depict the system blasting through the high, with a double- barreled low setup & interior track resulting in a rather warm/wet solution for our area. Conversely the CMC/UKMET depict the High winning out resulting in a suppressed system that doesn`t really impact our area. The GFS is more or less in the middle with the high retreating but the low passing just offshore (which would be Team Snow`s preferred evolution). Although it is always hard to ignore the EC, it should be noted that its solution seems somewhat unlikely given the -AO and associated blocking pattern (although this index will be trending less negative). For now went with temperatures more in line with the GFS for Tuesday, but these could literally be 20-25 degrees too cold if we truly ended up in the warm sector like the EC depicts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 mainly sleet... RNK/AKQ though get crushed with iceGfs sleet on 8 inches of rgem snow works for me 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2021 Share Posted February 10, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: 06z PARA starts NW of i95 as snow on SAT at 84 oh ok PARA... I see you at 90 with that heavy snow at DCA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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