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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

We don’t want to turn this into a mess but nice to see someone else noticing. 

I didn't mean to attack or offend him.  Whatever I said to upset him was unintended.  I INTEND to attack you and will continue to so long as you continue to make the unsubstantiated and unwarranted SLANDER that you perpetrate against the dedicated scientists (some of whom frequent this board) who work in NWP!  It's disgusting and ridiculous and you should be ashamed of yourself!  

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1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Models are trending slower to shift the tpv out, as psu noted this years trend is your friend for next week: 

look at the GFS 2m temps. From hour 54 to what looks like the end of the run...i dont think we see above freezing. Thats nuts

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Just now, Wentzadelphia said:

I know people down south hate em for good reason, but I wouldn’t mind a legit ice storm. We never get them in Philly anymore. Unless it’s sleet, we’re really good at that. 
 

 

yea Sleet is BS....if we get an ice storm.....i want rain and 19 lol

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looking at the 00z UKIE and 00z GEFS mean taking away my snow

you need to take long range guidance holistically.  Yes this one GEFS run was (oddly) further north with the waves next week and so cut back the snow mean in DC a bit.  But the last several runs of the GEFS were all further south then the op and were snowy next week.  The op this run was south.  The GGEM is south.  The UK is so south is squashes the wave.  The last run the euro trended south.  The seasonal trend from that range is south.  If you take the full scope and preponderance of evidence its good.  If you just laser in on the one thing that is not good you will just agitate yourself for no reason.  The GEFS could, and probably will, shift back south next run.  

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