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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
34 minutes ago, Chris78 said:
GFS setting up something big in about a week?
Nice SS vort getting ready to eject out the the SW.
gfs_z500_vort_us_24.thumb.png.9e73bda6460fce00d4f585a2c98f79f5.png

Gfs had alot of suspicious looks starting Sunday

The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. 

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The polar eyeball rules the roost thru the period. No model is going to figure out how it wobbles around more than 3-4 days out and even then.... Looks like it needs visine too. 
One TPV to rule them all, One TPV to find them,
One TPV to bring them all and in the darkness bind them.
giphy.gif?cid=349c9dd7wwqwl5bozvdnd21d10zi4vrbw2w4vy1zbvx9f2q7&rid=giphy.gif

Sent from my moto z3 using Tapatalk

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Euro  just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm  day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem.   In pretty good agreement with the CMC though.   Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped.  

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17 minutes ago, Amped said:

Euro  just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm  day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem.   In pretty good agreement with the CMC though.   Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped.  

True... but a monster ice storm shows up instead for parts of the region :yikes:

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13 minutes ago, Ji said:
27 minutes ago, yoda said:
There are a good amount (17/50 by my count) of really silly/weenie EPS individ members tonight on snow totals through 360 hours

And 33/50 bad ones. Is that what you are saying?

No lol... there are like 17 that have DCA near 2 feet

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Lets all take a moment... read this... and bask in all its glory lol

 

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
348 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

DCZ001-VAZ054-091200-
District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-
Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria,
and Falls Church
348 AM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

.REST OF THE OVERNIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. East
winds around 5 mph.
.TODAY...A chance of freezing rain in the morning. Mostly cloudy
with a chance of rain. Highs around 50. South winds around 5 mph,
becoming northwest around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of
precipitation 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 5 to
10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs in
the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of snow
30 percent.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows around 30. East winds around 5 mph.
Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.THURSDAY...Snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow near
100 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of snow near
100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow
80 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain and
snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of freezing rain
and snow. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation
40 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower
30s. Chance of snow 40 percent.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.
.WASHINGTONS BIRTHDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 20s.
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Morning AFD from LWX for Sunday and beyond

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

Some lingering wintry precipitation is possible into the first half
of Friday. Arctic high pressure remains locked in, with cooler than
average temperatures expected to continue. As the aforementioned low
departs, may even see a few breaks of sun by Friday afternoon. Highs
only reach the mid 30s though.

Strong, arctic high pressure remains locked into the region through
the weekend. A cold day and dreary day expected Saturday, as we
remain under a wedge of cold air. A weak piece of southern stream
energy will move out of the Gulf of Mexico and then off the Carolina
coast. Not a lot of moisture makes it into our region with this, but
could be just enough to get some light wintry precipitation.

A stronger piece of upper-level energy swings out of the southwest
and into the Gulf late Saturday night, then through the southeast
and up the Mid-Atlantic coast through Sunday night. With arctic high
pressure still locked in, wintry precipitation is once again possible
Sunday. Warm advection aloft may lead to this falling in the form of
mostly freezing rain. May be hard to get all snow, or any snow, out
of this event. Still several days out at this point, so this could
change. But this has the potential to be a significant icing event
for portions of the area.

Behind that, arctic high pressure remains locked in on Monday, with
perhaps the coldest day in the forecast period, where highs only
reach the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

Looking at the more extended forecast, yet another winter storm
could be looming by Tuesday/Wednesday, so keep an eye on the
forecast for more updates. But if this arctic high remains locked
in, it is certainly not out of the question to see many shots at
some wintry precipitation until it budges.

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41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

GFS has had plenty of cutters in the medium range this year that ended up not being that. Think we will see changes if not to the path of the storm then with the cold east of the mountains turning it into a significant winter event.

I know I will be keeping a close look at the movement of the TPV , as HM mentioned this yesterday.  The brunt of the arctic cold is out West but changes will most likely occur. 

Again, I am not searching for record breaking cold here, which may simply bring dry, but a cold running event that punches a little gusto and provides better coverage.  . 

 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

BTW how is the Arctic outbreak looking? I haven’t actually looked. I suspect that the cold air is having a hard time moving south and east?

Interesting,  even though the talk focuses on areas South of us. 

 

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

ICON has over an Inch of precip for next Tuesday with temps in the low 20's but not seeing an up tick on the snow maps.  Ice storm.

For a model that has no visual indication of precip other than snow or rain, it really wants us to get a mixed bag lol. Although its run for Saturday has more merit, since other guidance has a similar solution. 

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

For a model that has no visual indication of precip other than snow or rain, it really wants us to get a mixed bag lol. Although its run for Saturday has more merit, since other guidance has a similar solution. 

Just going by the surface, this is all frozen EZF north for the run.  And a lot of it is Sub 28 degrees.

icon-all-ma-total_precip_inch-3520000.png

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