Amped Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 There going to be a historic snow and historic ice somewhere in the eastern half of the country. Just don't know where yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 10 day mean. Obviously 6-8" of it is just through Friday but... 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Was EPS not very supportive of a Sunday event like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Was EPS not very supportive of a Sunday event like the GFS? Looks similar to the OP. Slight improvement over 6z to my eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Was EPS not very supportive of a Sunday event like the GFS? It’s there but like the op weaker and gets going late for big snowstorm here. Supports a light snow. Colder then op. It really likes next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is cray cray so the next 15 days is... and then it REALLY gets good lol 3 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler? Not only do you keep your stapler, I'm giving you a red stapler for your service. You're welcome. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Stormvista EPS weenie map. 2 1 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 50 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Did I finally get fired? Or is my office moved down to auxiliary storage B? Can I keep my stapler? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. 94 was a huge fail. Topper Shutt literally said on the 11pm news that they sent weather balloons up and it was going to be snow. 12 inches. 5 minutes later...i hear sleet pellets and thats all it did for that storm. 5 inches of sleet while Newwark, NJ got 20 plus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Anyone ever wondered what would happen if we got the western N American pattern of 1994 but with a -NAO. We might be about to find out. That is some filthy wording there. My lord. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 When's the last time you saw this in the LWX zones? Zone Forecast Product National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 343 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 DCZ001-VAZ054-090000- District of Columbia-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Including the cities of Washington, Arlington, Alexandria, and Falls Church 343 PM EST Mon Feb 8 2021 .REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. South winds around 5 mph. .TONIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of rain and freezing rain after midnight. Lows around 30. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 30 percent. .TUESDAY...Cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. A chance of freezing rain in the morning. A chance of rain. Highs in the upper 40s. South winds around 5 mph, becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. .TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph. .WEDNESDAY...Cloudy. A chance of rain and snow in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Snow. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. .THURSDAY...Snow. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of snow 90 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Snow and freezing rain likely. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .FRIDAY...Freezing rain likely. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s. .SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 40 percent. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and freezing rain. Lows in the mid 20s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. .SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of snow, rain and freezing rain. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 94 was a huge fail. Topper Shutt literally said on the 11pm news that they sent weather balloons up and it was going to be snow. 12 inches. 5 minutes later...i hear sleet pellets and thats all it did for that storm. 5 inches of sleet while Newwark, NJ got 20 plus. Remember it very well! Sleet bomb it was! Looked like sand when the salt and sand was on the sleet. Nasty stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That is an excellent zone forecast yoda posted. Of course temps still look like an issue as presented. Not one precip event on multiple days where the temps are projected below freezing. That’s what is curbing my enthusiasm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Don't look at the GFS for the Sunday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Don't look at the GFS for the Sunday system ICON and GFS look just a tad different at hr 120 lol. Surprised it stays mostly ice with a track like that, I guess it shows the strength of the CAD we're dealing with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Don't look at the GFS for the Sunday system 0.50+ QPF here with temperatures in the mid 20s. All sleet and freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS has a N or NE flow at the surface for the entire event. The secondary reenforces that cold flow and eliminates the switch to S or SE flow. Ice storm ingredients... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm a newbie and don't understand how the storm on the 14th is allowed to cut rather than get forced under the block per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Don't look at the GFS for the Sunday system Why not it is an ice bomb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, psurulz said: I'm a newbie and don't understand how the storm on the 14th is allowed to cut rather than get forced under the block? Someone with actual weather expertise can probably explain this better than I can, but I believe this giant 500mb feature is the culprit. Our storm rounds that through the Great Lakes, while in the previous run, it was positioned a bit further south and east, so when the storm came round, it was in a better spot for us (still was only an ice storm though). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Why not it is an ice bomb? Watch those 850’s come down as we go forward. With a high like that to our north no way those 850’s end up that high. That’s my prediction 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, baltosquid said: Someone with actual weather expertise can probably explain this better than I can, but I believe this giant 500mb feature is the culprit. Our storm rounds that through the Great Lakes, while in the previous run, it was positioned a bit further south and east, so when the storm came round, it was in a better spot for us (still was only an ice storm though). Check out the h500 heights for that on the GFS/GEFS compared to the Euro/EPS. Those are wildly different solutions with significant effects downstream lol. This seems eerily similar to what exactly happened for the midweek event back on Friday/Saturday when that system was a similar range out. The SE ridge definitely looks like it'll end up being much weaker than it was depicted at that range, so we'll see if this system does the same. I recall PSU mentioning it as a bias at 5-8 days out, but this seems somewhat different with the TPV causing the changes in how strong the ridge is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS has the storm for midweek next week as well. Pure weenie run coming here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Watch those 850’s come down as we go forward. With a high like that to our north no way those 850’s end up that high. That’s my prediction In a weird way, it seems reminiscent of the Feb. 2007 storm (Valentine's Day), though I am pretty sure the evolution wasn't quite the same. I can't remember offhand how the 2007 event looked in its development. But what is kind of similar is the entrenched cold air despite a more northwest track like shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, psurulz said: I'm a newbie and don't understand how the storm on the 14th is allowed to cut rather than get forced under the block per the GFS Look at h5 vort or height panels on approach. Think of the spaces between the height lines as highways (it's basically what they are). Then it gets easy to understand. The wed-fri period has "confluence" to our north or highways running due W-E. That keeps cold in place and the most important reason we arent raining/sleeting/zr'ing. Dont get hung up on anything beyond wed-fri. If the last week has taught us anything, cold/confluence on the models has been trending better as leads shorten. No idea if that will be the case again but no sense dissecting yet. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at h5 vort or height panels on approach. Thing of the spaces between the height lines as highways (it's basically what they are). Then it gets easy to understand. The wed-fri period has "confluence" to our north or highways running due W-E. That keeps cold in place and the most important reason we arent raining/sleeting/zr'ing. Dont get hung up on anything beyond wed-fri. If the last week has taught us anything, cold/confluence on the models has been trending better as leads shorten. No idea if that will be the case again but no sense dissecting yet. Yep, for the OP; The arrow is our confluence and the zigzag is the ridging. 18z vs 12z for comparison. Notice the difference in the height lines as Bob noted. We need that ULL to be farther East 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psurulz Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Look at h5 vort or height panels on approach. Think of the spaces between the height lines as highways (it's basically what they are). Then it gets easy to understand. The wed-fri period has "confluence" to our north or highways running due W-E. That keeps cold in place and the most important reason we arent raining/sleeting/zr'ing. Dont get hung up on anything beyond wed-fri. If the last week has taught us anything, cold/confluence on the models has been trending better as leads shorten. No idea if that will be the case again but no sense dissecting yet. Thanks Bob and Cobalt for the information. Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Technical term so hopefully people understand this but we are getting tucked the f up on this panel 2 5 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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