high risk Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But this is supposed to be NAMs specialty. This type of set up? Definitely, but capturing the position of a boundary and critical details of the related cold air damming is still contingent on having the background synoptic details correct. Once we're confident that is has the big picture correct, definitely rely on its low level temperature details. But we're thankfully not yet at the point where we can have confidence in its synoptic details. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 RGEM looked like it was setting up something big after though...wave really organizing to our southwest with the thermal boundary just to our south...was likely to be "something" after. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Not very many people. You guys dumbfound me with reading model runs sometimes. For everyone surrounding DC, it's a better shot at an all-snow event, which is better than flirting with sleet/freezing rain. But it's the Icon, so whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Through 51, boundary is south on the 12z GFS. Wave looks less amplified in the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Definitely, but capturing the position of a boundary and critical details of the related cold air damming is still contingent on having the background synoptic details correct. Once we're confident that is has the big picture correct, definitely rely on its low level temperature details. But we're thankfully not yet at the point where we can have confidence in its synoptic details. What's amazing is the NAM goes off the reservation (compared to all other guidance) by only hour 24. Notice its way further north with the wave tomorrow and that simply carries through the run to the next wave. All other guidance has the snow with that next wave running just north of the PA line into central PA tomorrow while the NAM has it up in northern PA. That is a crazy difference for only 24 hour lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The RGEM is pretty paltry with total qpf. Only .3-.4 through the area through 0z Friday. EPS was pretty much the same. A lot of the good stuff comes on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, mattie g said: For everyone surrounding DC, it's a better shot at an all-snow event, which is better than flirting with sleet/freezing rain. But it's the Icon, so whatever. I am totally cool with it...and I am ok with a smaller snow event from this... but I think some in and around the DC/Baltimore area feel they are due a major snow event and are chasing a flush hit. If this turns into a weak wave where the jack is only 2-4" they won't be happy even if they are that jack...so for them seeing the ICON trend towards a less significant event overall was a fail...even if it had the jack zone over them. For people that would be totally happy with a 3-4" all snow event...it was a great run. For people that want a bigger event it was a move in the wrong direction (away from the euro more significant camp). Just a matter of perspective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS is drier through 60 this run. Seems to be a theme at 12Z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What's amazing is the NAM goes off the reservation (compared to all other guidance) by only hour 24. Notice its way further north with the wave tomorrow and that simply carries through the run to the next wave. All other guidance has the snow with that next wave running just north of the PA line into central PA tomorrow while the NAM has it up in northern PA. That is a crazy difference for only 24 hour lead times. Great point. The difference in snow maps for the NYC area tomorrow between the 12z NAM and GFS is pretty crazy for this short of a lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: GFS is drier through 60 this run. Seems to be a theme at 12Z today. looks good to me. Wetter and snowier 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS was pretty much the same. 6z EPS juiced up actually. Hard to tell total precip due to contamination from Tuesday, but it seemed like overall 0.7"-0.9" from Wed to Fri. Regardless, it seems like to be on the winning boundary for Wed/Thurs, we need the system to be just deamplified enough. Never easy here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Surely nobody expects the gfs to be good, right? Well that worked No need for thanks and platitudes LOL 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Wave is less amplified on the 12z gfs. Results are its slightly cooler at 850 and the max snow shifted from Pa to basically through MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 SW winds at 850 look weaker on the GFS at hour 60 so that's better, and temps look better at that layer. Precip is further south. Could be a good adjustment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, clskinsfan said: GFS is drier through 60 this run. Seems to be a theme at 12Z today. Yeah, GFS is dry but doesn't blast the 850s through. The 850 line is right at DC on Thursday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Yeah, GFS is dry but doesn't blast the 850s through. The 850 line is right at DC on Thursday morning. Sounds like what our trade off needs to be for a mostly snow solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Cobalt said: 6z EPS juiced up actually. Hard to tell total precip due to contamination from Tuesday, but it seemed like overall 0.7"-0.9" from Wed to Fri. Regardless, it seems like to be on the winning boundary for Wed/Thurs, we need the system to be just deamplified enough. Never easy here lol This is precip from 6z EPS thru 0z Friday (which is the period of time to which I was replying). It’s about .4”, like the RGEM. More precip comes later on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: Sounds like what our trade off needs to be for a mostly snow solution? Yeah, basically. Still, you and I still want the boundary further south like the Euro has it. The GFS is pretty good for our northern MD neighbors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 The good ol US of frickin A for the win! eta: for MBY in HoCo anyway. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I am totally cool with it...and I am ok with a smaller snow event from this... but I think some in and around the DC/Baltimore area feel they are due a major snow event and are chasing a flush hit. If this turns into a weak wave where the jack is only 2-4" they won't be happy even if they are that jack...so for them seeing the ICON trend towards a less significant event overall was a fail...even if it had the jack zone over them. For people that would be totally happy with a 3-4" all snow event...it was a great run. For people that want a bigger event it was a move in the wrong direction (away from the euro more significant camp). Just a matter of perspective Since we never ever "jack" here in Balt City - or even come close to that, yes, we would like to see a solid six inch storm where we don't have to read celebrations from every county around us while we have rain or sit in yet another shadow or between bands or whatever. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: This is precip from 6z EPS thru 0z Friday. It’s about .4”, like the RGEM. Ah, I was considering through 18z Friday, but I guess that's out of RGEM range at this point, and it's also not the main overrunning wave. My apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Gfs has a N to S precip gradient of .6 for Baltimore to .3 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS looks good for Friday too.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Doesn't quite capture every last little bit of snow in the eastern part of the forum, but the GFS thru Thursday looks like a good tick in our favor. Give us one or two similar ticks and most of us should be in a good spot, but it's gonna be a nail biter somewhere regardless. Edit: a few more inches to come on Friday. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 If we’re gonna complain about that run I’m not sure what to say 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 This is a very good GFS run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I will take the drier front wave for the initial slug if Friday is wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: GFS looks good for Friday too.... DC itself does better on Thurs/Fri than with the initial stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, ErinInTheSky said: This is a very good GFS run... Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'd prefer a little more wiggle room but I'll take it. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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