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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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18 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Meh euro is south everything else is flush or north. I ain't mad

FWIW, it seems the seasonal trend is for Euro to be south of the majority of the guidance in the mid-range this winter with our events. Then there's been a bit of a meeting in the middle by gametime.  We'll see what happens this time, but I'd personally much rather see a EZF jackpot at this point than a Harrisburg jackpot. 

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8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Meh euro is south everything else is flush or north. I ain't mad

I'm about 5 miles from the PA border and I like where the Euro is at the moment. The GFS is about 2 north  ticks  away from screwing most of The DMV. 

The euro gives everyone wiggle room with thermals.

Sunday's storm was a big north shift at 72 hours out. We just didint get the shift we were looking for 24 hours out.

The north shift is real and I like having that wiggle room the Euro gives us.

In past experience these overrunning events can bleed north closing in on game time.

We've got a nice mix on guidance with slightly south, flush hits , and slightly north.

Puts us directly in the cross hairs. 

:weenie: :sled:

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Why is everyone worried about suppression? Every storm this year has had a north trend which causes us to get less snow or ice. Just take the Sunday's storm last week it just kept north shifting and before it did everyone was worried about suppression. The December storm also north shifted and got us shafted which is why I don't know why there are lots of concerns about it. Maybe if it keep going south through today you could. This is not even mentioning that the guidance still looks good, I mean the 00z Euro gives 10 inches of all snow in DC. If anything we need the guidance to shift a bit south today to give us some breathing room when it all north shifts. 

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30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

FWIW, it seems the seasonal trend is for Euro to be south of the majority of the guidance in the mid-range this winter with our events. Then there's been a bit of a meeting in the middle by gametime.  We'll see what happens this time, but I'd personally much rather see a EZF jackpot at this point than a Harrisburg jackpot. 

were not really in the mid range are we? the storm is suppose to start the day after tomorrow lol

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My biggest worry at the moment isn't south/north but rather lackluster rates and dry slotting like we saw in the thump two weeks ago. If that happens, then we need to hope the Friday shot some of the models like works out, and we've seemed to do poorly in the back half of our storms lately. Would much rather just have a stronger thump than rely on a departing hit.

But we're well out of the range where we'll be able to pick out specific regions of lackluster precip so while it's my biggest worry, it's still a small worry. Only really based on how prior storms have gone this winter.

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