Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:16 AM, Wetbulbs88 said: Sounds like a kiss of death for any type of biggie. But I guess that’s what happens when relying on an antecedent airmass. Expand It can be a sizeable event without being wound up. It's all about falling on the right side of the boundary and under the qpf bullseye. Precip totals can easily be .5 - 1" or even more. It's a legit moisture feed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Cmc gets it done 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Cmc has some kind of heavy precip next Sunday with Temps around 19 lol. Showed 60s last night's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:31 AM, Ji said: Cmc gets it done Expand Gfs was right there too just wobbled north. Cmc wobbled south with confluence and cold to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:35 AM, Ji said: Cmc has some kind of heavy precip next Sunday with Temps around 19 lol. Showed 60s last night's run Expand Yeah it's all Ravens purple...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'm deleting my radar app this week. Too stressful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:40 AM, Ji said: I'm deleting my radar app this week. Too stressful Expand Rgem looks like its setting up a nice round 2 at the end. If we were 120 hours out and saw all the models showing what they're showing now, not a single person here would feel good about it at all. Seeing 0z hold or improve is pretty sweet. Only 72 hours out now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:47 AM, Bob Chill said: Rgem looks like its setting up a nice round 2 at the end. If we were 120 hours out and saw all the models showing what they're showing now, not a single person here would feel good about it at all. Seeing 0z hold or improve is pretty sweet. Only 72 hours out now. 72 hours this winter has seemed like 120 hours. Even yesterday 6 hours out there was model chaos lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 3:11 AM, Yeoman said: It snowed at 37 degrees in my backyard today Expand Agree and 35 here and heavy 1”ph stuff but around noon and just could not accumulate except on old snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:49 AM, Ji said: 72 hours this winter has seemed like 120 hours. Even yesterday 6 hours out there was model chaos lol Expand This is true. No doubt. This time is actually different (famous last words). The moisture plume is happening. Basically a 100% chance. No waiting for cyclogenesis or any other complicated synoptic progression. It's just relatively warm moist air, weak impulse running the southern stream from the desert sw, and a blocked mass of cold to our north. Almost entirely isentropic upglide/overrunning precip until the end when weak slp forms and books east. The tricky part is the unavoidable fact that the qpf stripe will be divided between all ptypes. Keep rooting for confluence and suppression to not get pushed around like the chiefs o line all night tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:35 AM, Bob Chill said: Gfs was right there too just wobbled north. Cmc wobbled south with confluence and cold to our north Expand GFS loves to **** with us. It's irritating when all of the other models are on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 5:08 AM, stormtracker said: GFS loves to **** with us. It's irritating when all of the other models are on board. Expand I'm not sure we'll get full agreement on being on the good side for bit. One or more models will likely irritate everyone every 6 hours. Should be a blast in here as time ticks and nerves twitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 4:26 AM, Bob Chill said: It can be a sizeable event without being wound up. It's all about falling on the right side of the boundary and under the qpf bullseye. Precip totals can easily be .5 - 1" or even more. It's a legit moisture feed. Expand Yeah for sure. We’ve threaded the needle before, it can happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Damn, Euro about to start things off at like 1pm Wed now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:09 AM, stormtracker said: Damn, Euro about to start things off at like 1pm Wed now.Slightly tipsy so not positive but EURO gets snow into CHO by 1:00pm or so, yeah. Slightly colder surface temps (maybe 1C) all around as well. Snow into DCA by 7:00pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Yeah, Euro still loves us. A lot. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not sure I’d call it a shift southward but precip is better defined on the southern edge around 78. Snowing everywhere unless you’re south of *EZF Goods pretty clearly shifted south a bit at 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Non-stop wintry precip from hr72 to hr102 and no signs of it stopping. Wow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Definitely colder vs 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 still going at this point, most of us back to snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:18 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand Euro is 2 days straight of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:15 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure I’d call it a shift southward but precip is better defined on the southern edge around 78. Snowing everywhere unless you’re south of FDK. Goods pretty clearly shifted south a bit at 81 Expand FDK would be in MD... how is snowing everywhere then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:20 AM, jaydreb said: Euro is 2 days straight of snow. Expand Serious ice signal for those right on the edge. Not a hovering around freezing signal. A "you will be icing whether you want to or not" signal. Really hope the south push continues -- don't want that to be me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:15 AM, NorthArlington101 said: Not sure I’d call it a shift southward but precip is better defined on the southern edge around 78. Snowing everywhere unless you’re south of FDK. Goods pretty clearly shifted south a bit at 81 Expand Pretty sure you mean Frederickburg, VA, because it's definitely snowing south of FDK down through DC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:20 AM, NorthArlington101 said: still going at this point, most of us back to snow. Expand dear god please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:20 AM, yoda said: FDK would be in MD... how is snowing everywhere then lol Expand sorry, I'll blame the tipsiness. Fredericksburg is what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 In fact, it never changes over from EZF north 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Peels out around hr117. Final maps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:22 AM, NorthArlington101 said: sorry, I'll blame the tipsiness. Fredericksburg is what I meant. Expand Lol it's okay just wanted to be sure... Fredericksburg is EZF by the way 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 On 2/8/2021 at 6:20 AM, NorthArlington101 said: still going at this point, most of us back to snow. Expand Most of us never changed to anything but snow. Are you looking at the 0z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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