Yeoman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I wonder why the surface temps are so warm on that map. Doesn’t seem to jive with those 850’s. Because 850mb is a mile from the surface? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Because 850mb is a mile from the surface? LOL. Yes I know but typically with a precip event there won’t be that type of differential especially with cold air pressing south. And at that time the 850 height is about 4700 feet LOL. So not quite a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Unanimous trend with better confluence to our N and NE out over the atlantic right before it really matters everywhere I look. Will def help fight the good fight with midlevel temps. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Unanimous trend with better confluence to our N and NE right before it really matters everywhere I look. Will def help fight the good fight with midlevel temps. Would have loved to have a 0z DGEX for that NAM run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's not a storm until you hear I-81 and beatdown about 1,762 times. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. Yes I know but typically with a precip event there won’t be that type of differential especially with cold air pressing south. It snowed at 37 degrees in my backyard today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: LOL. Yes I know but typically with a precip event there won’t be that type of differential especially with cold air pressing south. Take a look at 10M winds. Beginning of the slug is SE then E surface flow. Flips norteast while it's still going strong. Sweet run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Take a look at 10M winds. Beginning of the slug is SE then E surface flow. Flips norteast while it's still going strong. Sweet run That would help explain it. A warm feed instead of a north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, Yeoman said: It snowed at 37 degrees in my backyard today Not disputing the snow it shows. Just would have thought upper 20’s after I saw that 850 map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I will not get NAM'd again, I will not get NAM'd again, .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not disputing the snow it shows. Just would have thought upper 20’s after I saw that 850 map It's not a good broad swath of cold snow setup in this case. Gotta walk the line to get the goods. If we were in the teens and 20s it would be congrats Raleigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 ICON much colder this run. Hammers the NW burbs. Gonna edit this and say we have no idea how much of that precip is ice on the ICON. I am going to assume a lot of it is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... heh 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: ICON much colder this run. Hammers the NW burbs. Gonna edit this and say we have no idea how much of that precip is ice on the ICON. I am going to assume a lot of it is. Has to be. Temps never approach freezing and when it’s showing rain here Friday temps are in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... heh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: Didn’t see this posted but the Euro control is a huge hit. I'd rather see this over Norfolk to give us a chance at surviving the north trend. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... hehLooks like since every threat is 1-3 days away...your back for a while lol since you don't do the 10 day track fail thing anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like a sleety mess on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I'd rather see this over Norfolk to give us a chance at surviving the north trend.We have yet to see a North trend when we need it...or a south trend when we need it...so I like it just where it's at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Looks like a sleety mess on the GFS.Gfs has become completely useless lately for ptypes and Temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, Ji said: 4 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Looks like a sleety mess on the GFS. Gfs has become completely useless lately for ptypes and Temps While I agree, I don’t like how strong the winds are out of the SW aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: While I agree, I don’t like how strong the winds are out of the SW aloft. It has t looked that way on other ops the last run or two. Winds have been E-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Looks like a sleety mess on the GFS. Gfs has become completely useless lately for ptypes and Temps It did pretty well today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Amped said: I'd rather see this over Norfolk to give us a chance at surviving the north trend. We have yet to see a North trend when we need it...or a south trend when we need it...so I like it just where it's at Was about to say, honestly I’d rather just be in the bullseye and just hope this isn’t a tough one for the models to handle. And I’ll be damned if we’re not getting better agreement than we’ve seen in a long time. Don’t worry I won’t get my hopes up just yet though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, blueberryfaygo said: It did pretty well today. Really? Pretty sure it was way farther southeast and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: While I agree, I don’t like how strong the winds are out of the SW aloft. You kinda have become the new Ender when you post. We always knew when he posted it usually was an accurate description of the bad thing a model showed lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 GFS top (DuPage, 00z) Euro bottom (Pivotal, 12z) for early Thursday. 850 winds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: You kinda have become the new Ender when you post. We always knew when he posted it usually was an accurate description of the bad thing a model showed lol Ha. We can’t afford any type of amped system. We can do a nice gentle overrunning, but if this thing gets overactive it’ll flood us and we can kiss any snow goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ha. We can’t afford any type of amped system. We can do a nice gentle overrunning, but if this thing gets overactive it’ll flood us and we can kiss any snow goodbye. Sounds like a kiss of death for any type of biggie. But I guess that’s what happens when relying on an antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 29 minutes ago, Ji said: 57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Not only is then icon solid, better setup already showing for something to run the gauntlet from the SE down the line. Stable confluence is such a pretty and welcome sight man. Takes some of the freakout potential away. Which is always in short supply.... heh Looks like since every threat is 1-3 days away...your back for a while lol since you don't do the 10 day track fail thing anymore Posting is tough during the week. Sporadic at best until it starts happening. Won't know for 3-4 weeks how good or fail it is but odds are nearly completely stacked in our favor for chances. Impressive. No locks though. Fail is always on the table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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