BristowWx Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Technically day 4 I'd think . 1st flakes or ice By within 80- 84 hours per most guidance but good to see the interest regardless. That winter storm threat map is totally geared east to west. This seems to be a sagging front that where it sets up will determine the outcome. The focus is more south to north. The threat should be higher in BWI than CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That winter storm threat map is totally geared east to west. This seems to be a sagging front that where it sets up will determine the outcome. The focus is more south to north. The threat should be higher in BWI than CHO. Hey, screw you too guy... /sFor real, that map is worthless more than half the time. Needs to be much more customizable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Crazy thing about that EPS run is I swear it looks like day 6/7 that ULL was in a prime spot for an arctic front. This is the event the 12z GFS had... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 32 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: 100% Agree. Anyone south of Mason-Dixon expecting 100% cold powder from this is out to lunch. Anyone south of the Mason-Dixon making declarative statements about people who are expecting 100% cold powder from this as out to lunch from a storm 3 days away are out to lunch. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 18Z Control... 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 EPS looks good. Isn't that a huge step back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 That is a juicy Ens right there. Low to mid 20's with 1.2 QPF. Monster hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS looks good. Isn't that a huge step back? I don’t think so, this just covers the late week threat. Looks close to 12 iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: EPS looks good. Isn't that a huge step back? Not really. This was 12z for the same time period. It’s just a 72 hr map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 144 Eps looks interesting for sure ...and its after the winter storm Wed-fri More stout CAD signal during that time too. The GEFS has way more of a signal for precip during that time, but that’s probably because it has a few more members that follow their Op brother in trying to pump a ridge and having that storm ride that boundary. Seems like that’s been a bit of a bias with the Ops and ensembles this past week, so I’d imagine that the TPV taking its sweet time to descend into the US (and also having it be less consolidated along the western edge) has certainly helped potentially put us on the winning side of the boundary. Exciting times ahead. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 18Z, some nice 6 day hits; but also some duds; percentages still favorable especially northern half of DMV for snowfall. These maps don’t show the ice potential. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z, some nice 6 day hits; but also some duds; percentages still favorable especially northern half of DMV for snowfall. These maps don’t show the ice potential. Like you said, these don't show the ice potential. Interestingly, a lot of the "misses" are instead, crazy ice events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 4 hours ago, CAPE said: 2010-11 had it at least early. Most people make reference to Jan 1996, but storms like that are pretty rare around here in a Nina. I am fine with the reality that the likely path to a decent outcome with a setup like this is by getting hit by multiple smaller events. Everyone can root for what they want and set "bars" ofc lol. Wont make any difference in the end. I remembered years ago in the fall of an impending Nina (I think it was 2016-17) I did some seasonal research and was shocked to find that what makes a Nina so terrible isn’t that it mutes an NAO. It’s that we suck monkey nuts and get NO snow unless we get a -NAO and since those are exceedingly rare since the 80s... So I went back and found my files and updated them with the last few years. These are the actual splits for every -NAO month since 1990 at BWI. I hate using DCA. It’s depressing and I do think BWI is more representative of most in the 95 corridor. December La Niña -NAO avg snow 2.2” 17% above avg Non Nina -NAO Avg snow 6.1. 40% above avg so yes in December a Nina mutes the NAO. So this years challenged start despite a -NAO in hindsight should have been expected but get a load of this... January Nina -NAO avg 15.9” 67% above avg Non Nina -NAO AVG 5.6” 50% above avg February nina -NAO avg 16.1” 100% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 11.5” 50% above avg March nina -NAO avg 3.6” 50% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 1.0” 25% above avg So in January to March our mean snowfall with a -NAO is actually HIGHER in a Nina then non Nina months and our chances of having an above avg snowfall month is higher in a -NAO Nina. The reason Nina’s suck is actually because a -NAO is pretty rare and they are horrid without one. When I did my warning event snowfall study I don’t think there was a single Nina one in the whole 70 year study without a -NAO! We simply do not snow much without a -NAO in a Nina. But the truth is a -NAO seems to have the same effect, and maybe even better, in a Nina as in other enso states. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 144 Eps looks interesting for sure ...and its after the winter storm Wed-fri I've had my eyes on that time period...why? Solid cold air...precipitation appears to be nearby...and it would be PD/VD weekend Haven't had that combo in awhile...will be interesting to see if this develops! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Thru D7 is obviously distracting right now but macro gefs mean look d7-15 is sweet AF. No big storm signal yet. I'd be good with 3 6-10" and a side order of ice tho. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 I remembered years ago in the fall of an impending Nina (I think it was 2016-17) I did some seasonal research and was shocked to find that what makes a Nina so terrible isn’t that it mutes an NAO. It’s that we suck monkey nuts and get NO snow unless we get a -NAO and since those are exceedingly rare since the 80s... So I went back and found my files and updated them with the last few years. These are the actual splits for every -NAO month since 1990 at BWI. I hate using DCA. It’s depressing and I do think BWI is more representative of most in the 95 corridor. December La Niña -NAO avg snow 2.2” 17% above avg Non Nina -NAO Avg snow 6.1. 40% above avg so yes in December a Nina mutes the NAO. So this years challenged start despite a -NAO in hindsight should have been expected but get a load of this... January Nina -NAO avg 15.9” 67% above avg Non Nina -NAO AVG 5.6” 50% above avg February nina -NAO avg 16.1” 100% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 11.5” 50% above avg March nina -NAO avg 3.6” 50% above avg non Nina -NAO avg 1.0” 25% above avg So in January to March our mean snowfall with a -NAO is actually HIGHER in a Nina then non Nina months and our chances of having an above avg snowfall month is higher in a -NAO Nina. The reason Nina’s suck is actually because a -NAO is pretty rare and they are horrid without one. When I did my warning event snowfall study I don’t think there was a single Nina one in the whole 70 year study without a -NAO! We simply do not snow much without a -NAO in a Nina. But the truth is a -NAO seems to have the same effect, and maybe even better, in a Nina as in other enso states. If someone could figure out how to predict blocking winters....$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Didn’t see this posted but the Euro control is a huge hit. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 No such thing as the Euro control.. NAM is ridiculous for next 48 hours, but maybe we are setting up moisture potential for storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 13 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Didn’t see this posted but the Euro control is a huge hit. Add all of these day 5-6 snow maps up and DCA has 150" on the year 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 19 minutes ago, Ji said: If someone could figure out how to predict blocking winters....$$$ A few more tics south like the 18z euro control and suppression talk will enter the chat 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nam quicker onset with the midweek threat . Yes. In line with everything else now. And juicier this run as well. 81 is a sweet panel for NOVA/DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 NAM improved mid level temps early in the run. Everything is converging on a "less sweaty" progression 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 84 is even better: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 WB 0Z NAM is much better than the Super Bowl. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Oh God. I just saw the NAM. somebody better tell it and the Euro that they are out to lunch. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Well, NAM is about .6sh for dc at the end of the run and sufficiently cold throughout the column. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Just now, snowfan said: Well, NAM is about .6sh for dc at the end of the run and sufficiently cold throughout the column. And still a ton of juice left to come. It is a beatdown. Period. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: beatdown 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2021 Author Share Posted February 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z NAM is much better than the Super Bowl. I wonder why the surface temps are so warm on that map. Doesn’t seem to jive with those 850’s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 Quote I wonder why the surface temps are so warm on that map. Doesn’t seem to jive with those 850’s The baltimore incinerator. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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