Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Subtle shift towards more confluent flow overhead on the gfs. Everything is ticking colder still. Hard not to like that. Would be nice to have enough room to lose a couple ticks N leading in without causing a civil war here. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Loooooonggggg range RGEM has a really nice thump D.C. north. For posterity! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 It’s out of its useful range, but the RGEM trended colder towards the end of its run and was snowing on us. EDIT: Ninja’d by my North Arlington neighbor. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 If these looks hold thru say tues night. We might actually be in for a low stress event because with this kind of setup, surprises are even less likely to happen at short range than the majority of our winter events 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The upper level eyeball northeast of Maine on the gfs is new and why we could win round 2 also. Gfs is watching out for us it seems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Subtle shift towards more confluent flow overhead on the gfs. Everything is ticking colder still. Hard not to like that. Would be nice to have enough room to lose a couple ticks N leading in without causing a civil war here. Pretty big difference for the Friday wave. I like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: It's never a bad idea to be prepared. Stick the bread in the freezer after you get it, then take it out if you lose power to thaw it and have fresh bread last a little longer. Can't say the same for milk lol I have known someone that would keep milk in the freezer though...never tried it, but I buy shelf-stable milk for emergencies. I think most people are used to stocking up for 2 weeks since Covid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Both events.. Thurs/ Friday on the GFS... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It seems that an enhanced thermal gradient usually produces for us... I checked the temps too and Thursday and Friday looks to produce cold fluffy dry snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 hours ago, DDweatherman said: Do we have any snow maps from 94 in PA? They got blitzed pretty good Haven’t read anything since page 45, so if it’s been answered I apologize...but I was in college in Lewisburg, PA that year and we got crushed. No idea the totals, but I recall there being 6-12” storms time after time after time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Loooooonggggg range RGEM has a really nice thump D.C. north. For posterity! I approve this message. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next Definitely looks active. I’m still a bit worried the boundary ends up too close to us for all snow, but we’ll see. With the storms we’ve had so far this winter, there hasn’t been the “inevitable north trend in the last 24-48 hours” we typically assume. Not sure if that’s random chance or models getting better or something else. I’d still like to leave room for a bump north at the end though, especially in this situation. Snow hasn’t been easy this winter, so I’m trying to stay patient... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, mattie g said: Haven’t read anything since page 45, so if it’s been answered I apologize...but I was in college in Lewisburg, PA that year and we got crushed. No idea the totals, but I recall there being 6-12” storms time after time after time. Was definitely better north of the mason dixon. We did have the March 94 storm out here. It was like 20 inches. But a ton of ice in Feb I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps 850s run to run change is very significant. That leads me to believe it’s nothing but a fresh powder dump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sheesh, the GEFS is icy as hell for Virginia. Really hoping its wrong. Snow mean is pretty sweet too for Wed-Fri. Crossing my fingers for a colder solution. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sheesh, the GEFS is icy as hell for Virginia. Really hoping its wrong. Snow mean is pretty sweet too for Wed-Fri. Crossing my fingers for a colder solution.They may need to prepare for a crippling ice storm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: They may need to prepare for a crippling ice storm. . Yeah... can't think of much more miserable than a crippling ice storm knocking out the power during a pandemic. Really hoping for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'm kind of excited for the next 10 - 14 days. We could have a sneaky big event in here that catches everyone off guard. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm kind of excited for the next 10 - 14 days. We could have a sneaky big event in here that catches everyone off guard. Those are the best and most memorable! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The GFS is always right! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Definitely looks active. I’m still a bit worried the boundary ends up too close to us for all snow, but we’ll see. With the storms we’ve had so far this winter, there hasn’t been the “inevitable north trend in the last 24-48 hours” we typically assume. Not sure if that’s random chance or models getting better or something else. I’d still like to leave room for a bump north at the end though, especially in this situation. Snow hasn’t been easy this winter, so I’m trying to stay patient... I'm expecting mix. Practically every time our area is bisected by mix, my yard mixes too. 850s will rip out of the sw for a time while precipitating until flow flips n w/slp to our east. 850 line isnt down by RIC. I usually mix with the midlevel look I'm seeing. Havent looked at why the euro is a good but colder. I'll just blindly hug that for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: Sheesh, the GEFS is icy as hell for Virginia. Really hoping its wrong. Snow mean is pretty sweet too for Wed-Fri. Crossing my fingers for a colder solution. We don't need a repeat of the Nov 2018 ice storm over here in Waynesboro , Augusta area.... booms cracks and bangs were constant that night along with pretty light flashes lighting up the sky........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I have never experienced a proper ice storm storm or glacier storm that dumps snow then ice without it turning to rain. I have also never been in a low temp ice event and it would be the only way to get a snow day now so... Just kidding though, I would love a snow day and a glacier but I would rather have a foot of snow. If this storm does end up giving us a majority snow event that would be crazy, 3-4(if Sunday happens) moderate to heavy events in 2 weeks. With the pattern the rest of Feb looks good and we seem to have cold air in place for once so I think this thread will be up to seasonal average and maybe even more if we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said: We don't need a repeat of the Nov 18 ice storm over here in Waynesboro , Augusta area.... booms cracks and bangs were constant that night along with pretty light flashes lighting up the sky........ I could tell an ice storm had probably happened even though I didn’t know for sure, only because the trees were in pretty bad shape. It looked pretty crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB GEFS prob through Friday 3, 6, and 12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 19.9% chance of 12 inches? I will take it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next These are the types you guys do really well with. I’m almost positive I’ll be sitting jealous in Philly looking south at the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm expecting mix. Practically every time our area is bisected by mix, my yard mixes too. 850s will rip out of the sw for a time while precipitating until flow flips n w/slp to our east. 850 line isnt down by RIC. I usually mix with the midlevel look I'm seeing. Havent looked at why the euro is a good but colder. I'll just blindly hug that for now Here's the thing... Unless someone tells you to back away and not dissect it, you're going to analyze the living F out of why the Euro is colder through all levels. So...let me be the one to tell you to back the F away and allow the rest of us to incorrectly read each suite between now and Tuesday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts