Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

It's feels like it's been weeks and weeks of "potential, 8 days away, real cold finally" ect since Christmas with nothing but a 3 day pixie dust slop job out of it. Today was ridiculous smh. Anyway.. back to the shadows.

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

[WinterWxLuvr]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

NAM slowed down the progress of the storm again this run. It is a ton slower than the Euro or GFS. 

The key takeaway is that it is further south than its prior run. But it is 12 hours slower than the euro and not quite as far south 

[Steve25]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

Agree. All I remember hearing in January was that the pattern will become much more favorable for cold and storms in the last week of January and into February, and frankly, that has panned out. A large portion of our region may not have gotten a major snow in that stretch, but the opportunities have been there. There were NO opportunities pretty much the whole month of January. 

[Bob Chill]

39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Bob Chill

so this is where all 3 majors leave us going into late February AFTER our run the next 2 weeks. Lol 

 

If the next 3-4 weeks dont provide at least 1 flush hit, I don't think even I could avoid a complete record breaking meltdown here. Then I would find the internet master power supply cord and cut it with a chainsaw. 

[Maestrobjwa]

18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's crunch time. Hemispheric pattern is exactly what we talk about ad nauseam every winter while the pattern typically sucks. It's a nina and I get that but it's also absolute prime climo for a big coastal. I'm at like 12 or 13" on the year. If we got a couple 6" storms I would hit climo. But it would not be a memorable winter at all. Better than I was thinking back in Nov. Still run of the mill blah overall tho

Agree with you both...I don't think wanting the big dog is unreasonable right now. We've waited quite awhile to get this -AO/-NAO pattern--AND get it in prime climo. Now we finally have it...I do hope we can cash in! (and dang it we even have cold and precip nearby for VD/PD weekend to boot! Can a window get any better? C'mon, lol)

[Steve25]

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly? 

[Amped]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, it's crunch time. Hemispheric pattern is exactly what we talk about ad nauseam every winter while the pattern typically sucks. It's a nina and I get that but it's also absolute prime climo for a big coastal. I'm at like 12 or 13" on the year. If we got a couple 6" storms I would hit climo. But it would not be a memorable winter at all. Better than I was thinking back in Nov. Still run of the mill blah overall tho

I think if the NAO holds through mid March , I don't think 3  6+ events  with 2 of them being 10+ is that unreasonable to ask for. 

[Bob Chill]

12 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Agree. All I remember hearing in January was that the pattern will become much more favorable for cold and storms in the last week of January and into February, and frankly, that has panned out. A large portion of our region may not have gotten a major snow in that stretch, but the opportunities have been there. There were NO opportunities pretty much the whole month of January. 

I dont know the whys but I do know that we always suffer through a delayed reaction when we need a complete north american reset. Like with the pac firehose of recent years. It did let up but man what a slow motion process... Models always rush it and it causes extra impatience

AO has been great so that speeds things up. There was literally nothing but pacific air in Canada for weeks and weeks until just recently. Last weekend felt like the switch. Our best shots come towards the end of the hot streak. It would bother me if another miller a comes at us and we miss a flush hit.  Wont lie there. 

[jacindc]

Just now, Steve25 said:

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Well, yeah, we SHOULD....

[The Ole Bucket]

Back to back to back Sunday mornings with snow is nothing to sneeze at if we can get it.

And there’s almost something romantic about the potential for a big Valentine’s Day storm ushering in some freezer air..

[chris21]

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not quite...it hasn't been "weeks and weeks"...remember that cold air was an issue last month. It wasn't until last week we finally started to get legit cold. What you may be thinking of is the conversation about the awesome -AO/-NAO regime we've been in. Discreet threats didn't start popping up until a little over a week ago, did they not?

Excellent post.... also... if you lived near the dc metro and esp south and southeast, prob shouldn’t have had your hopes up for a huge event... 

[Ji]

If you only looked at Nao/ao this winter so far has been a disaster.

[Bob Chill]

Dont care for the model but the icon is pushing the cold boundary south early. More than a little shift thru 72hrs. Right direction for a trend

[WinterWxLuvr]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Dont care for the model but the icon is pushing the cold boundary south early. More than a little shift thru 72hrs. Right direction for a trend

The icon has the precip but shows rain after a while. But looking at its temps they never approach freezing. Don’t think that model shows anything other than snow or rain. We wouldn’t be getting any rain in that depiction.

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, Ji said:

If you only looked at Nao/ao this winter so far has been a disaster.

That's like saying if you only look at your posts you're a disaster 

[WinterWxLuvr]

21 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly? 

You have to look at the preponderance of the overall, not specifics at a long range. For example it looks pretty certain that Thursday will be cold and wet. How cold and how wet can’t be determined yet. But those two together are usually good.

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The icon has the precip but shows rain after a while. But looking at its temps they never approach freezing. Don’t think that model shows anything other than snow or rain. We wouldn’t be getting any rain in that depiction.

Icon sucks for important panels/data. No midlevel anything. Impossible to use really. The surface panels often show odd or unusual things and there is no way to figure out what is causing. I mostly ignore it except for h5 heights and vort panels. 18z was a good trend for later this week. That's good enough for me. 

[Bob Chill]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

If you only looked at Nao/ao this winter so far has been a disaster.

Makes you wonder if it can actually get worse right?

[winter of 2012-13 enters chat....nude]

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The icon has the precip but shows rain after a while. But looking at its temps they never approach freezing. Don’t think that model shows anything other than snow or rain. We wouldn’t be getting any rain in that depiction.

I seem to recall hearing that for whatever reason, the ICON only shows rain/snow for precip type and doesn't depict freezing or sleet.  Maybe that's what's happening here, where some of that "rain" is actually ice.

[Weather Will]

WB ICON 18Z v 12Z..... I know the snow maps are not the best to compare, but....( note the blues over us from 12Z are today’s storm so ignore it.)

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

39 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

If the next 3-4 weeks dont provide at least 1 flush hit, I don't think even I could avoid a complete record breaking meltdown here. Then I would find the internet master power supply cord and cut it with a chainsaw. 

You can go all-out Panic Room meltdown, it might even scare the Reaper if that's possible!! 

[clskinsfan]

12Z CFS is a wild run. Multiple chances into mid March. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

Forgive me if this is an ignorant question, but it's been on my mind. So it's always being mentioned how weather forecasting is so tough because conditions are constantly changing. With that said, when things look GREAT in the long range, shouldn't we be expecting those things to change as we get closer? 

Or are these signals you use to get an idea for the long range more reliable and less likely to change swiftly? 

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this...Overall pattern can look great, but there's still the "chaos" element...the discreet details that simply cannot be seen so easily until we get closer to an event. That's probably why they say "potential" and not "yeah this exact scenario is 100% likely to happen!" Lol As @Bob Chill said last week...the supercomputers are still a ways away from being able to identify specifics from long range. Perhaps from range you could point out a thing here or there that may make certain details (be it positive or negative) more or less likely to happen, but...that may be the extent of it. The hardest part of this hobby to accept us the "chaos" or "random" part of the smaller details that can determine outcomes! (Which is why the things sniffed out early are so satisfying, lol Would love to get one of those again!)

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

I will be really upset if we end this epic blocking period without an Epic snowstorm in our region.   It's been -NAO all of January and likely most of FEB too.   If we just get nickel dimed and fringed, then this winter is huge disappointment.   

I suppose it would be disappointing, but then again, Ninas for the MA tend do that, HL blocking or not.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, CAPE said:

It suppose it would be disappointing, but then again, Ninas in the MA tend do that, HL blocking or not.

Question: What was the last nina to have this kind of blocking?

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't know, with a +500dm block to the north, other things should be happening. It's their for 4 days. A west-based -NAO lol 

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Question: What was the last nina to have this kind of blocking?

2010-11 had it at least early. Most people make reference to Jan 1996, but storms like that are pretty rare around here in a Nina. I am fine with the reality that the likely path to a decent outcome with a setup like this is by getting hit by multiple smaller events. Everyone can root for what they want and set "bars" ofc lol. Wont make any difference in the end.

[Weather Will]

WB ICON 925 temps 18Z v 6Z (12Z not available on WB) for Th am.

[Bob Chill]

If some people want to learn what to track upstairs, track h5 vort panels run over run in the short range. There's A LOT of stuff coming at us over the next 7 days. The wed deal is just the first ripple of many approaching from the desert sw and gulf. Focus on the closest piece. Keep it simple. 

I knew the icon was going to be colder and further south by comparing h5 vort panels and not surface plots. What is coming first is not a defined shortwave. It's a southern stream moisture feed with impulses zipping along. 

Look at the panel below. See the mottled orange stripe running W-E in the midwest? That's the war zone between precipitation/moisture and cold air. The 12z icon run was further north and heights were aligned less flat and more sw-ne. This is why it was warmer and rainier. It allowed the cold boundary to drift northward as the energy approached. We want heights horizontal/flat overhead and to our north. It's basically acting like a wall from allowing warmth/rain to win. Confluence. 

It's a fine line here between all outcomes but there's really not a lot of time left to miss precipitation entirely. We just want to be on the winning side as much as possible. 

[Cobalt]

Interesting thing to note is that the Tuesday weak wave that is going North of us has slowed down somewhat on GFS guidance. Could this be why we're seeing lower heights in front of the overrunning event? That was a negative trend for the storm leading up to the 28th event, but maybe not in this scenario if it is leading to the storm being de-amplified