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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Heh, Euro brings back barney around day 8. Lows nearing 0 for most of the subforum. That's gotta be due to snowpack, but then again any substantial cold we've had as of late has been met by bare grounds, so a solid glacier keeping cold nearby would be a long-awaited sight. 

ecmwf-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-3390400.thumb.png.816d5a492d5035325e4d7d9a06d04744.png

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10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This sounds like a nightmare scenario and actually a bit specific. You okay over there? lol

This is exactly what it is and the guidance is getting full support on ensembles too. In fact, it may even trend colder if the synoptic setup stays the way it is. Good for winter weather, but someone in this sub, the warm nose will lurk and ice will be pure hell. I love your hood for a prolonged winter event. Going to look like deep winter by Friday

Lol I got lucky. Was driving through Raleigh once and they really got hit the night before. Gas stations were closed and I was on E but found one open. Close call, though.

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Also watch day 5-7 on future Euro runs.  There is a PV  north of the great lakes, but the jet is configured so that there is a right entrance region over the eastern half of the US ,and a surface high.    This will enhance any disturbance that tries to dig  in the plains or MS valley.

JkMdp25.png

 

 

 

 

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Just now, 87storms said:

Lol I got lucky. Was driving through Raleigh once and they really got hit the night before. Gas stations were closed and I was on E but found one open. Close call, though.

Yikes. That is a nightmare for sure. Glad you found one. Nothing worse than being stuck with no way to find relief, whether it be gas or....yeah lol

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh have we learned nothing about these snow maps? They do more harm than good, I'm telling ya...at least until maybe 48 hours away. 

Probably true, but the signals keep popping up over and over the last month or so. Seems like only a matter of time before one clicks for MOST of the sub. 

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12 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This sounds like a nightmare scenario and actually a bit specific. You okay over there? lol

This is exactly what it is and the guidance is getting full support on ensembles too. In fact, it may even trend colder if the synoptic setup stays the way it is. Good for winter weather, but someone in this sub, the warm nose will lurk and ice will be pure hell. I love your hood for a prolonged winter event. Going to look like deep winter by Friday

How far south could the ice extend? Central Virginia?

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I'm having a hard time remembering a similar setup. The 13-15 stretch had some mini versions but sw-ne trajectory and ripping flow. I can't remember any drawn out events with blocking, no sig slp, and mostly W-E trajectory at our latitude. This could be a flag honestly because it might be uncommon unless I'm just old and forgetful. 

That said, on paper it looks very ominous and it's square in the midrange rn. My guess is the euro prob just captured top end for snowfall and % of snowfall. It's hard not to think that this will be quite impactful overhead or nearby. All snow is pretty sketchy for my yard. My gut says 50% snow is ambitious. My weenie says look tf out, apocalyptic event inbound. My weenie is really dumb though. Kind of has a mind of its own but I hear that's normal. 

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Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Yikes. That is a nightmare for sure. Glad you found one. Nothing worse than being stuck with no way to find relief, whether it be gas or....yeah lol

Yea it was a stretch actually past Raleigh and I think near or after Durham. It was several years ago. Had to drive through that one section to find something open, but it’s another thing to pay attention to if you’re planning a trip.

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh have we learned nothing about these snow maps? They do more harm than good, I'm telling ya...at least until maybe 48 hours away. 

Actually I feel based on the HL blocking and the pattern it supports the map.

Do I expect it to verify, probably not. Do I expect a snowstorm in the coming pattern, yes I do. Can we get snow on snow, I think so. 

I mean really if you can't get a snowstorm with the look on top, arctic air mass, boundary, baroclinic zone, multiple disturbances then forget this hobby.  

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5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Jury is still out for specifics, but it certainly has a shot. The west-central portion of VA has that look to it. Not sure at the Richmond area/metro. Didn't take too close a look out that way. 

I'll get the bread and milk ready! Guidance has looked seriously slick out here. As long as we don't lose power I'll survive.

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I'll get the bread and milk ready! Guidance has looked seriously slick out here. As long as we don't lose power I'll survive.

It's never a bad idea to be prepared. Stick the bread in the freezer after you get it, then take it out if you lose power to thaw it and have fresh bread last a little longer. Can't say the same for milk lol

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Jury is still out for specifics, but it certainly has a shot. The west-central portion of VA has that look to it. Not sure at the Richmond area/metro. Didn't take too close a look out that way. 

Thanks! I’m about 25 miles wnw of ric. In the past we are close enough to the blue ridge to get locked in with CAD. When we moved here in 1988 folks used to tell me we are in the ice storm capital of the US. Lots of ice in the 90’s. Not so much lately (thankfully). 

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18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'm inclined to agree

Your yard is in a better spot than mine later this week so far. Latitude with W-E oriented overunning matters. I'll remain skeptical of the 12z euro verbatim but all 3 globals only have minor differences with the large scale features that make or break our yards. I'm very intrigued with this. Moreso than last weekend's hybrid coastal. 

You guys have heard me say many times over the years but we really do suck at complicated. This potential is actually fairly uncomplicated. Rug pull needs to happen within 24 hours or it's not getting pulled imo. Ptype on the other hand... those worries will be front and center up until game time unless the boundary clearly parks just south of us. Be careful expecting a big pretty clean powdery event. For our yards that's prob the least likely outcome but not impossible

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