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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

1038 high. Looks good. Going to be tough to get temps to budge. GFS picking up on this too is a great sign.

Gfs run was pretty encouraging with both the progression and surface winds/temps. We havent had the gfs on our side with tightrope setups in the midrange. Gfs is the warmest global as usual but it isnt really warm and the verbatim solution is still very wintry. Crap. I need to figure out how to avoid this place for at least Mon-Tues.... hmmm.... guess I'll strive for a temporary ban... just saw phin post in banter. Brb and see ya after the ban 

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I am super concerned of an ice storm in the Shenandoah and parts of NoVA. I'd be stocking up on supplies as early as tomorrow just to be sure. That's a legit ice storm sig on guidance. The kind you see up in New England with pure northerly flow locking in the cold and sharp warm nose within the lower boundary layer.  

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am super concerned of an ice storm in the Shenandoah and parts of NoVA. I'd be stocking up on supplies as early as tomorrow just to be sure. That's a legit ice storm sig on guidance. The kind you see up in New England with pure northerly flow locking in the cold and sharp warm nose within the lower boundary layer.  

I know it's still a ways out but this sure looks like a situation where the low level cold is impossible to scour out.

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1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am super concerned of an ice storm in the Shenandoah and parts of NoVA. I'd be stocking up on supplies as early as tomorrow just to be sure. That's a legit ice storm sig on guidance. The kind you see up in New England with pure northerly flow locking in the cold and sharp warm nose within the lower boundary layer.  

ice storms can be unpleasant, even more so when you're driving around, low on gas and find stations are closed.  they're fun from a weather perspective, but i'll take snow.

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4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Wow. Over 1 inch QPF as snow out here. Its over a foot. I will take this snow depth map right now and call it a winter. 

snod.us_ma.png

Before "we" get too excited let's see how much of this "occurred" this morning! 

It's certainly been a rewarding winter for many - Hope the immediate D.C. and Baltimore areas can join the fun later this week. 

 

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1 minute ago, 87storms said:

ice storms can be unpleasant, even more so when you're driving around, low on gas and find stations are closed.  they're fun from a weather perspective, but i'll take snow.

This sounds like a nightmare scenario and actually a bit specific. You okay over there? lol

1 minute ago, HighStakes said:

I know it's still a ways out but this sure looks like a situation where the low level cold is impossible to scour out.

This is exactly what it is and the guidance is getting full support on ensembles too. In fact, it may even trend colder if the synoptic setup stays the way it is. Good for winter weather, but someone in this sub, the warm nose will lurk and ice will be pure hell. I love your hood for a prolonged winter event. Going to look like deep winter by Friday

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Sign me up. I’ve never been to Europe. Really want to go one day if only for the reason that those folks know how to predict weather....and drink. :lol:

This should probably go in banter....but does anyone know if there are weenies in Europe?  I wonder if there is an EU equivalent of this site.  I wonder which country has the biggest snow weenies.  So many questions.  Is Russia their equivalent of New England?  

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2 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Before "we" get too excited let's see how much of this "occurred" this morning! 

It's certainly been a rewarding winter for many - Hope the immediate D.C. and Baltimore areas can join the fun later this week. 

 

I believe the snow depth factors in the melting a decent bit of the DC area will have from now until Wednesday. Kuchera doesn't cover the entire period on WxBell (mainly because it only has a 24 hour parameter and the total Kuchera accumulation factors in snow from 12z-18z today). It's still in line with 10:1 if not a tiny bit higher. Nice to have some cold in place for sure. 

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

This sounds like a nightmare scenario and actually a bit specific. You okay over there? lol

This is exactly what it is and the guidance is getting full support on ensembles too. In fact, it may even trend colder if the synoptic setup stays the way it is. Good for winter weather, but someone in this sub, the warm nose will lurk and ice will be pure hell. I love your hood for a prolonged winter event. Going to look like deep winter by Friday

This has a real chance at being the 2nd 48 hour plus event within 2 weeks of each other. That would be amazing. 

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This should probably go in banter....but does anyone know if there are weenies in Europe?  I wonder if there is an EU equivalent of this site.  I wonder which country has the biggest snow weenies.  So many questions.  Is Russia their equivalent of New England?  

There are tons of weenies in Europe. They are all over Twitter! 

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

This should probably go in banter....but does anyone know if there are weenies in Europe?  I wonder if there is an EU equivalent of this site.  I wonder which country has the biggest snow weenies.  So many questions.  Is Russia their equivalent of New England?  

there used to be a few folks on here from Italy that would post insane snow pics from there - not sure if they are still here.

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