clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 GFS is a little too far south with the follow up wave on Tuesday the 16th. Right where we want it. What a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 CMC w the sort of a 2 part approach. Light amount of ice w the initial overrunning followed up w some snow overnight Thursday into Friday w temps in the mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC was quite warm at 0z. 12z similar? Colder. Verbatim was snow for those north of DC for a while, then rain or dry, and then a modest thump of snow again for all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, high risk said: Agreed, Bob. This one has high-impact potential for a lot of people here, although the 12z Canadian now has a very different solution, so I don't think that the synoptic details are totally locked in yet. Truth. Nailbiters and living on the edge is our predefined specialty in the mid range. The overrunning stripe is quite narrow in all guidance and it's a club sandwich of ptype south to north. Staying all snow requires someone to be on the tiny slice of the already narrow slice thru the duration. Tall order as the stripe will wobble up and down as slp influences flow. CMC is different but still shows the W-E aligned boundary like the other globals. That orientation is very encouraging. If it morphs to sw-ne it will quickly take the wind out of our sails and the ice out of our yards. Fun week on tap! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Only posted to show potential . This is hours under 214 Here the GFS sees the colder air mass and reacts, and of course, a favorable storm track as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, high risk said: Colder. Verbatim was snow for those north of DC for a while, then rain or dry, and then a modest thump of snow again for all. Sounds sweet. Thank you sir. This is too much fun. Funuary! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sounds sweet. Thank you sir. This is too much fun. Funuary! Also known as “Jebrurary”. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 UKMET onboard for some thump on Thursday. Big euro run coming up, would be a pretty strong group of models onboard if it joins in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Question, when you get these boundaries separating warm arid from very cold air, does the converging winds at 850 as illustrated in that map above create a zone of enhanced lift/precip or is that level too low for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB GEFS thru 7. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC was quite warm at 0z. 12z similar? Colder overall would be nice if we could just get to freezing That's been a struggle over the fast several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Larry Cosgrove = Pants Tent “There is no fighting the notion that most of the lower 48 states are going to get swept up by the Arctic regime now descending from Canada. But there are questions about storm potential, especially regarding track and type of precipitation. Let me remind you that all of the numerical models show at least one massive disturbance passing out of the southern Rocky Mountains in the 6 - 10 day range. The ECMWF scheme is reluctant to allow the intense cold to reach the southern and eastern tier of the nation, which the GFS series is more aggressive and brings the forward edge of the cAk readings all the way into the Interstate 10 and 95 corridors. In effect, only California and Florida dodge the proverbial bullet. It has been my experience that the American scheme handles cold advection much better than its European counterpart, particularly when a true Arctic air mass is involved. It is a judgment call, but the regime over North America is arguably the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere and will continue with that dubious title for the rest of the calendar winter. This is important because the path of storms in the medium range will likely be suppressed into the northern Gulf of Mexico and then up or off of the eastern Seaboard. I can see a scenario where the southern rim of the U.S. has a rain ending as an ice event, while snow deepens from the Great Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. Much of this is up for grabs, mind you, but the emergence of renewed blocking in Greenland, agreed upon by all of the computer models, will favor a lower latitude trajectory of impulses in the Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams. And the most obvious candidate is the broad cyclonic circulation below the Aleutian Islands I note that most of the ensemble packages show yet another shortwave from the northern Pacific Basin getting caught up in the deviated jet stream configuration, with another deepening storm in the Southwest seven days from now. We have to watch this feature carefully! I can see a track scenario taking shape where the system drops into northern Mexico, then moves along the Gulf Coast,m and then close to and likely just to the right of the Eastern Seaboard. around February 14 - 17. This is the type of set-up that -could- produce a true monster winter weather event, with the Arctic motherlode being pushed into the Great Lakes region and phasing with the low pressure area. The vast expanse of cold is worrisome since actions like overrunning and cold instability will interact, with a wider coverage of precipitation types than is normal” 4 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Question, when you get these boundaries separating warm arid from very cold air, does the converging winds at 850 as illustrated in that map above create a zone of enhanced lift/precip or is that level too low for that? It's def part of it. The deeper/bigger the cold dome the more lift isentropic upglide/lifting. In this case it's not a front line battle like it could be if the arctic boundary divded the warm/moist flow. That's way up north in NY this go around. Ingredients are still certainly there but mixy messy instead of deep deep winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: Larry Cosgrove = Pants Tent “There is no fighting the notion that most of the lower 48 states are going to get swept up by the Arctic regime now descending from Canada. But there are questions about storm potential, especially regarding track and type of precipitation. Let me remind you that all of the numerical models show at least one massive disturbance passing out of the southern Rocky Mountains in the 6 - 10 day range. The ECMWF scheme is reluctant to allow the intense cold to reach the southern and eastern tier of the nation, which the GFS series is more aggressive and brings the forward edge of the cAk readings all the way into the Interstate 10 and 95 corridors. In effect, only California and Florida dodge the proverbial bullet. It has been my experience that the American scheme handles cold advection much better than its European counterpart, particularly when a true Arctic air mass is involved. It is a judgment call, but the regime over North America is arguably the coldest in the Northern Hemisphere and will continue with that dubious title for the rest of the calendar winter. This is important because the path of storms in the medium range will likely be suppressed into the northern Gulf of Mexico and then up or off of the eastern Seaboard. I can see a scenario where the southern rim of the U.S. has a rain ending as an ice event, while snow deepens from the Great Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. Much of this is up for grabs, mind you, but the emergence of renewed blocking in Greenland, agreed upon by all of the computer models, will favor a lower latitude trajectory of impulses in the Arctic, polar, and subtropical jet streams. And the most obvious candidate is the broad cyclonic circulation below the Aleutian Islands I note that most of the ensemble packages show yet another shortwave from the northern Pacific Basin getting caught up in the deviated jet stream configuration, with another deepening storm in the Southwest seven days from now. We have to watch this feature carefully! I can see a track scenario taking shape where the system drops into northern Mexico, then moves along the Gulf Coast,m and then close to and likely just to the right of the Eastern Seaboard. around February 14 - 17. This is the type of set-up that -could- produce a true monster winter weather event, with the Arctic motherlode being pushed into the Great Lakes region and phasing with the low pressure area. The vast expanse of cold is worrisome since actions like overrunning and cold instability will interact, with a wider coverage of precipitation types than is normal” Yeah the models have been flirting with some big moisture coming up from the gulf for a bit and it has piqued my interest for sure over the past couple days paired with the cold coming. Classic case of give me the ingredients and let the details work themselves out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 If even remotely correctly fun times are ahead. Keep in mind, this snowfall extends out beyond the 7 day just a bit. Attempting to see where the baroclinic, arctic air mass jackpot zone may be, we certainly appear to be in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 I know we have period specific threads but this really needs to be repinned. Have to scroll halfway down the page just to get to it 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, high risk said: When the model that struggles the most with maintaining cold air damming has a solid signal for a long-duration cold air damming event, I definitely take notice. At the same time, doesn't it struggle with overdoing cold several days out? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Boundary further south for Thursday on the Euro. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Boundary further south for Thursday on the Euro. Positive changes on the PV for us down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Euro is a nice hit Wednesday Night/Thursday Morning. COLD and .6+ falls as snow out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Temps steady in the 20s with snow on Thursday....yes please. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Starts near 30 and then drops into the 20s. Mod snow by 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6-10 for the entire subforum north of I64. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Damn...Still snow through 108 for everyone north of EZF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 0.7 QPF all snow in DC to start by hour 108.....LFG. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Starts near 30 and then drops into the 20s. Mod snow by 93 Seems the pattern ahead will hopefully have less risks and more certainty regarding overall snowfall distribution . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said: 0.7 QPF all snow in DC to start by hour 108.....LFG. There is more through 111. Maybe avoid a flip all together 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Hot damn. We need the mid level wiggle room. Go europe! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1038 high. Looks good. Going to be tough to get temps to budge. GFS picking up on this too is a great sign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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