WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Been a while since we’ve had the e-w flow with cold air. These can be fun and literally last forever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 am Th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 am Th we start to lose 850 but still much cooler than 6z last frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. Oh dear...a predictable elevation battle again? Might have to look past this one for that reason alone, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Yikes. And it’s not done at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Oh dear...a predictable elevation battle again? Might have to look past this one for that reason alone, lol Not this time. I'm talking 4-5k' up overhead. Elevation areas are further north and better climo so it may correlate but it's more a factor of where the battleline is drawn. No way to know yet really. For you and me we want CAD with northerly surface flow no matter what. Insitu/eroding CAD even with the battlezone overhead could be problematic. Just spitballin'. No concrete thoughts. Just envisioning the mechanics thru different levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB winter precip late week, actually changes back to snow overnight TH. Verbatim down to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. Is this the type of wind map you are looking for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Is this the type of wind map you are looking for? He wants 850winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Let’s lock in the ice storm then big Miller a next Sunday on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 25 minutes ago, frd said: This is the coldest version yet again. Colder by mean and colder by extent as well. Been many a years since I have witnessed this. I feel this raises the bar on colder storms in our area eventually. Also the NPO index continues to go towards a negative 3 SD near Feb 11 th. Looking for artic cold to maximize in our area after the 15 th. Also when seeing the progression of the GFS eddy heat flux it appears there could be increased odds of a mid Atlantic Snowstorm in the 15 th to the 18 th. It’s hard to lose with that. Dry would likely be the only way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Is this the type of wind map you are looking for? That's surface. The 850 temp/wind animation on TT really shows what we're dealing with. There are 2 cold boundaries thru the period. Cold front south of us that pulls north as waa takes over and the arctic boundary up in NPA and SNY. We arent getting the artic boundary to help this time without sig changes. It's all about the the other boundary. We want as short of duration as possible with southerly midlevel winds. That's what's pushing the cold boundary north as precip moves thru. We also want the cold boundary to sink back south ASAP as slp moves east of us. It's a pretty classic messy setup for us. Seems like this stuff was more common years ago but memories are selective. Surface flow actually looks pretty good on the gfs. True CAD northerly flow even after precip starts. Relatively brief SE flow as slp is closing in to our west but right back to northerly. CAD wins in this scenario on the gfs and that's why ice is pretty stout. I personally dont see snow winning here for any of us really. Meaning close to or all snow. Unlikely without a further push of the cold boundary. Mid range seems to prefer to move north instead of south lately so I'm def leaning on a sig but messy event at best for now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I'm too lazy but WW (or anyone), post 850s temps + wind barb panels when it counts. Some runs have northerly flow in the mid levels fighting back the waa surge and others move that battlezone north of us. Precip trajectory is sweet if that look holds. If we want good snow we need to be on the winning side of the midlevel battle zone. It's a very touchy setup there. Low confidence until a particular solution becomes consensus and even then we're playing with fire here. Hey Bob...is this sort of what you were looking for, at 850mb? This is one image at 12Z Thursday after we lose the 850s...winds were out of the southwest through that time. The 10 meter streamlines @Weather Will put up definitely show the CAD near the surface below this, and 2-m temperatures reflect that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Gfs has only one day (Tuesday) that’s warm in the next 10. Basically at or below freezing throughout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This would be a nice follow-up after some ice Thu-Fri (quite cold, too)... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 When the model that struggles the most with maintaining cold air damming has a solid signal for a long-duration cold air damming event, I definitely take notice. 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: When the model that struggles the most with maintaining cold air damming has a solid signal for a long-duration cold air damming event, I definitely take notice. I just hope it's not the fail above where we look north again and see big totals and get another crap mixed bag down here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s hard to lose with that. Dry would likely be the only way. I really don't think dry would be an issue, there seems to be a steady supply of disturbances. I am search for an all snow event , eventually with the deep arctic cold and snow cover to our North, and even colder air in the long range, if we don't get an all snow event, we never will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB GFS has another storm over the weekend...buckle up!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Weather Will said: WB GFS has another storm over the weekend...buckle up!!! And one right after that one haha. Weenie run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 @WinterWxLuvr I believe this is a new threat . Beyond this time period, might be a miller A in the works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, high risk said: When the model that struggles the most with maintaining cold air damming has a solid signal for a long-duration cold air damming event, I definitely take notice. Considering the 0z euro solution and seeing the 12z gfs version... it does look pretty ominous for a significant event. Little ice storms are more boring than watching a cross country ski race. Potential crushing ice storms with a side order of glacier on the heels will suck me in every time 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, osfan24 said: I just hope it's not the fail above where we look north again and see big totals and get another crap mixed bag down here. I'm talking about the Thursday-Friday event. Still time to change, but it certainly looks like we will be too warm upstairs for all snow. My point is that the GFS often wipes out the cold air at the surface and turns us to rain, so when I see it maintain the below freezing temps throughout the event and give us a big ice accumulation, the threat is really legit. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the 0z euro solution and seeing the 12z gfs version... it does look pretty ominous for a significant event. Little ice storms are more boring than watching a cross country ski race. Potential crushing ice storms with a side order of glacier on the heels will suck me in every time Agreed, Bob. This one has high-impact potential for a lot of people here, although the 12z Canadian now has a very different solution, so I don't think that the synoptic details are totally locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Considering the 0z euro solution and seeing the 12z gfs version... it does look pretty ominous for a significant event. Little ice storms are more boring than watching a cross country ski race. Potential crushing ice storms with a side order of glacier on the heels will suck me in every time I am beginning to feel a bit overwhelmed at all the storms and tracking coming up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, Bob Chill said: Lets not derail this thread but you cant help but to look at midrange guidance and think we may be in for one of the more impactful mixed events in years. Many years... Someone is getting it. Maybe it's us. I'm very interested Been focused more on shirt range lol. I’m trying to be holistic about the whole period. Guidance will struggle with exactly where the boundary sets up but history suggests it’s near us. There are so many waves coming at us the next 2 weeks I find it hard to believe we don’t go on a run. If we can avoid getting into the warm sector we may even do the glacier building thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: Agreed, Bob. This one has high-impact potential for a lot of people here, although the 12z Canadian now has a very different solution, so I don't think that the synoptic details are totally locked in yet. CMC was quite warm at 0z. 12z similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, high risk said: I'm talking about the Thursday-Friday event. Still time to change, but it certainly looks like we will be too warm upstairs for all snow. My point is that the GFS often wipes out the cold air at the surface and turns us to rain, so when I see it maintain the below freezing temps throughout the event and give us a big ice accumulation, the threat is really legit. Yes, agree. I haven't been too "big" on any real snow for Thu-Fri, really, though of course it would be nice if we can be on that side of the boundary. However, models have been honking what could be a prolific ice event around here during that time for a little while. Not something you normally see so consistently like this. As for snow, seems our better chances for that would be after Thu-Fri, when there are some indications the Arctic air will be pressing more and we'll perhaps be into deeper cold. Though that's gone back and forth out at this range of course. GFS for next weekend would be the weeniest chance of all, LOL! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: CMC was quite warm at 0z. 12z similar? No It looks nice. Colder for the initial overrunning and then slides another wave under us that gives us snow. Days of frozen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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