stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 6z GFS moved south a bit with the cold/frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 lol 6z GFS is just chance after chance... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol 6z GFS is just chance after chance... What's up with the CMC? It says what cold spell? Looks like it keeps the cold well to the west as we roast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 We need to get some cold air. Is it just me but it seems over the last 3-4 years we have a hard time reaching 32 or below. It would be interesting to see how manny hours a winter season say DC has been below 32. I remember growing up I need a winter coat. I never were one now just a light shell or a sweat shirts is all one needs anymore. Yesterday I was out picking up sticks and was like it so warm. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Am I wrong to not really even take anything remotely seriously from the models for next week until tomorrow at the earliest? It just seems like they don't have a handle on things right now from beyond 3 days. The way the models flipped from no storm at all to one riding the coast 3 days prior to this one, it has me skeptical they don't have a solid grasp on our current pattern. Maybe I'm being too skeptical. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Modest shift south on the 6z eps for next week. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: Modest shift south on the 6z eps for next week. 00z EURO was the overnight model crushing the region with ice... is it still ice or more snow on 06z EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, yoda said: 00z EURO was the overnight model crushing the region with ice... is it still ice or more snow on 06z EPS? Looks snowier on the means. PV more elongated over the top of us so the cold press is better. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Looks like the boundary line of cold and warm will be very interesting starting mid-week for the next two weeks. This period of time has great "potential". Hopefully BristowWx won't be breaking out the flip flops anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Looks like the boundary line of cold and warm will be very interesting starting mid-week for the next two weeks. This period of time has great "potential". Hopefully BristowWx won't be breaking out the flip flops anytime soon. It’s best to have them ready at all times brother. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 32 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Looks like the boundary line of cold and warm will be very interesting starting mid-week for the next two weeks. This period of time has great "potential". Hopefully BristowWx won't be breaking out the flip flops anytime soon. I love gradient overunning snows in Feb!! One of my faves for heavy thumps. Of course I only enjoy being on the colder side of the gradient. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB 6Z EPS looking good....most of this snow mean is Th-Fri...nice tick south. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 hours ago, dailylurker said: What's up with the CMC? It says what cold spell? Looks like it keeps the cold well to the west as we roast. Go with the middle. Been working well this year. Super deep cold and relatively fat se ridges have yet to verify from mid/lr. Personally, the setup over the next 7 days looks productive and messy. I expect a fair amount of 4 different ptypes this week. That's all I can say without claiming to know things I really dont know 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 23 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z EPS looking good....most of this snow mean is Th-Fri...nice tick south. As you are aware, trends might be suggesting colder and more snow, versus ice. Here is another way to look at it in this animation. Focus on our area, not so much Virginia and NC in the time loop. Also, many disturbances in the flow as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 12z NAM at the end of its run looks intriguing out west... Wed night could be snowy/icy for many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: As you are aware, trends might be suggesting colder and more snow, versus ice. Here is another way to look at it in this animation. Focus on our area, not so much Virginia and NC in the time loop. Also, many disturbances in the flow as well. Thats the 12z GEFS from Friday. Not disputing your point though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Just now, DCTeacherman said: hats the 12z GEFS from Friday. Not disputing your point though. Thanks for pointing that out, but EPS did look better. Hoping the colder snowier version wins out, it will be tough, but in the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Wow, get some snow cover next week and may be able to keep a while, it if things time up correctly. Wonder the expanding cryosphere effect on future model runs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is just crazy. First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks, instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 RGEM is much faster than the NAM with the precip. Gets snow into my area 18Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 36 minutes ago, frd said: This is just crazy. First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks, instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover. Look at the 10&14 day verification graphs. Long range has been busting too high since mid jan. Good clue to hedge thoughts against a sudden reversal or flip positive. It certainly could happen but wont consider it until it's happening d7 or less. D7 verification has been pretty strong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 ICON focuses the overrunning snows north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: ICON focuses the overrunning snows north of us. Look at its 2 m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB 12Z GFS will be a tick south this run compared to 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 52 minutes ago, frd said: This is just crazy. First the almost - 6 SD dive in a few days, and even more intriguing is the recent reversal - from the AO going positive in a couple weeks, instead possibly going back down the third week of February. Continued blocking and colder scenarios in a back drop of expanding snow North America cover. That sharp rise may be the trigger for our big event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 This is the coldest version yet again. Colder by mean and colder by extent as well. Been many a years since I have witnessed this. I feel this raises the bar on colder storms in our area eventually. Also the NPO index continues to go towards a negative 3 SD near Feb 11 th. Looking for artic cold to maximize in our area after the 15 th. Also when seeing the progression of the GFS eddy heat flux it appears there could be increased odds of a mid Atlantic Snowstorm in the 15 th to the 18 th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS will be a tick south this run compared to 6Z Keep those images comin. RGEM was a nice hit and NAM looked similar. Need some support for the 7” mean from the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 10pm Wed compared to 6Z temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 Nice little move south on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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