jaydreb Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Pretty much forms a glacier across the US. Pretty impressive even for an op run. So much tracking ahead...gfs basically had us on the right side of everything that run. Just some silly totals on here. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2021 Author Share Posted February 6, 2021 It won’t happen, but look at the air coming into the Canadian prairies at the end of the gfs. Holy moly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. 6 1 14 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 44 minutes ago, Amped said: TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC. But after that it's an awesome storm day 11-12. Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 22 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Just some silly totals on here. 55” for Deep Creek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours. Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK. No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way. At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. Hmmmm. I see the -NAO more like Mickey Mouse....and I do heart Mickey. Eta: lots of exciting tracking times ahead! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: I was 18 at the time and that was the only storm I was praying would hold off a few more hours. Trying to beat it home from Killington to FDK. No luck...I was surprised when I hit snow in Scranton and it was a white knuckle drive the rest of the way. At least from what I remember, from watching the news before we left, it wasn't supposed to be that far north yet....3-4am iirc. Someone else was coming back from VT in that. We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early. Hit snow S of Hartford. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 7, 2021 Author Share Posted February 7, 2021 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Didn’t 1996 take FOREVER to advance north or maybe it just felt that way to impatient 17 year old me. At least in my neck of the woods in swva there was a significant strip of precip out in front of that storm that came through on Friday night. Then the storm really got cranking in Saturday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: Someone else was coming back from VT in that. We were on a HS ski trip, think t was Okemo. We ended up having to return to CT a day early. Hit snow S of Hartford. Funny....I remember looking at the bank thermometer in Rutland on my way out and it was -18f Out of the 5 of us there, 2 decided to stay and wait to come home. I was one of the drivers and "hell no...the train is leaving the station." I am not missing out on witnessing this storm by sitting in a hotel room eating pb&j and pounding cheap beer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: When ops runs drop 2 years worth of snow and end up here on Feb 20th, you can feel pretty good saying we're not done for a while. Yea yea, it's the gfs d15+. I know this. But look where it ends up. This would be the beginning of ANOTHER hot streak. Reading between the lines, the 18z gfs loves us SO MUCH that it even shaped the -NAO like a heart. Not just an op though... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 15 hours ago, BristowWx said: Hard to fathom a sub 10F high temp in these parts. It’s been a long time that I can remember. Actually not sure I can remember Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago. I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 The CMC is %99 rain next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 18z EPS for our Thursday threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 47 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Maybe on the coastal plain, but it was well below that on the Allegheny Plateau about 3-4 years ago. I was on a trip with family in Canaan Valley and it was subzero highs (I think -6 one day, -8 the other) on a Sat & Sun in Feb. Yeah I was up in Canaan during feb of 2015 for that big arctic front. I actually went out skiing during the passage of the front which was insane, total whiteout, almost couldn’t make it back visibility was so low. But the next day the high was around 0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 WB 18Z EPS for Th, 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend. Of course it only shifts north when it screws us 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 LWX going with snow likely - 70% Thursday and Thursday night already. Honk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs and icon both shifted way north with the waves this week. Hopefully just a bad op run and not a trend. Same with the CMC. Ugly 0z suite tonight 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same with the CMC. Ugly 0z suite tonight Yeah let's hope things improve...because going through the week with just rain would be kinda frustrating. Cold air is so close by...you'd think we could get something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Both the 00z GFS and 00z CMC have intrigue for the 15th to 17th time period... 00z CMC just looks a little weird IMO Day 9 into Day 10 with its precip field/orientation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 28 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Same with the CMC. Ugly 0z suite tonight Unfortunately I don’t like where this is heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 I still very much like the overall pattern. Multiple chances coming. But would be nice to get a hit from the first one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 FROM LARRY COSGROVE a long winter still ahead FWIW Even though there are model forecasts that suggest the stratospheric warming event will collapse in the first week of March, lower layer translation of the 10MB features is usually not seen until perhaps three weeks later. Personally, I believe the analog forecast thats says we will have to wait until the first week of April before our current colder pattern breaks down. The analog system scored very well in December and January, and pointed out the recent tendency for pronounced -NAO ridging and European cold. And also showed the split storm track pattern, though not as strong as what actually transpired through the southern and eastern U.S. last month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 00z Euro says don't worry guys... we got this ice storm for you on Thursday... 0.25" to 0.60" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Major ice storm potentially heading our way into Friday. I wouldn’t mind a nice snow thump to ice to dry slot to build a base for the next 2-4 weeks 18z gfs and 0z euro both show nasty storms in very different ways. Like with the storm we’re about to deal with today, I’d wait until the previous storm has exited the Atlantic coast before taking models so seriously. They are, once again, lost until they’ve got a better grasp of the environment Thursday’s storm will be forming in. bet 0z tomorrow or 6z Tuesday starts the trend in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 On 00z EPS tonight through 360 hours... I count 38 of the 50 members showing at least 6" or more of snow at DCA... around 18 or so really nice solutions (12"+)... and about 7 monster solutions (18"+) 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 1 hour ago, jayyy said: Major ice storm potentially heading our way into Friday. I wouldn’t mind a nice snow thump to ice to dry slot to build a base for the next 2-4 weeks 18z gfs and 0z euro both show nasty storms in very different ways. Like with the storm we’re about to deal with today, I’d wait until the previous storm has exited the Atlantic coast before taking models so seriously. They are, once again, lost until they’ve got a better grasp of the environment Thursday’s storm will be forming in. bet 0z tomorrow or 6z Tuesday starts the trend in our direction. Let’s hope so. CMC has us in shorts and flip flops next Saturday. That’s quite a change when we were talking temps below 0 recently. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 7, 2021 Share Posted February 7, 2021 Sounds like LWX is a bit gung-ho for mid week per their morning AFD .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure is expected to build from the Midwest and Great Lks into the area Wednesday and wedge down along the eastern slopes of the Appalachians setting up a CAD event Wed night into Fri morning. At the same time, overrunning precip is expected to break out across the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic late Wed as multiple areas of low pressure move near the area. Confidence is increasing in a very impactful winter storm the second half of this week with some snow and significant icing across the area Wed night into Fri morning. Ensemble QPF is generally 0.5 to 0.75 inches liquid equivalent for this event. By 12Z Fri, low pressure that develops along the coastal front pushes out to sea with precip ending. After Fri, global models largely diverge on the sfc and upper level pattern with Euro and Canadian models showing heights rising over the Northeast and delaying any Arctic intrusions while the GFS shows significantly lower heights and allows for a strong Arctic air intrusion to reach the area. Of course, leaning here with the Euro given typical well-known cold bias of GFS at extended lead times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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