Cobalt Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 44 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: That’s an archambault event imo. Has a really good 50/50 & Hp early on but the trough is linked too far into the northwest and it takes too long to come east. Long way out Pulling this from the day 3-7 thread but yeah the EPS looks super promising for that timeframe. I guess it depends on where the boundary sets up but with cold out in front it looks pretty favorable for at least a frozen event somewhere in our area. I'll take this precip mean from that lead and let all the events we have lined up distract until that timeframe, but it's hard not to like the signal for that. Snow mean looks pretty too, but obviously not worth posting this far out lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps is pretty much a weenie run imo through day 13 . But that's for another thread Some of this falls here. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, frd said: Some of this falls here. Like always, it just wants to snow here. Dime a dozen run right there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, frd said: Some of this falls here. weve got tomm and late week next week. Something beyond that as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: weve got tomm and late week next week. Something beyond that as well? Check the other longer range thread. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'm waiting for Ji to bring up Dec 2018 (i think that was the year) when we went from a multi-day sw flow firehose on the models that magically morphed into cool/dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 43 minutes ago, frd said: Every model has been badly under doing the SE ridge in the D7+ timeframe. I would take that with lass than a grain of salt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm waiting for Ji to bring up Dec 2018 (i think that was the year) when we went from a multi-day sw flow firehose on the models that magically morphed into cool/dry. 2017. I think that died before it even got with d7 range though. This is already like 3-4 days if you count the Wednesday-Thursday wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, Amped said: Every model has been badly under doing the SE ridge in the D7+ timeframe. I would take that with lass than a grain of salt. Himalayan pink sea salt...mmmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 2017. I think that died before it even got with d7 range though. This is already like 3-4 days if you count the Wednesday-Thursday wave. Yea man, I'm diggin the mid range period. Def not expecting clean snow. That's for sure. But the next best thing is a snow/sleet/ice/more snow/sleet/ice followed by deep freeze. I've had a glacier fetish ever since Feb 2007 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Yea man, I'm diggin the mid range period. Def not expecting clean snow. That's for sure. But the next best thing is a snow/sleet/ice/more snow/sleet/ice followed by deep freeze. I've had a glacier fetish ever since Feb 2007 I’ve paid no attention to the period beyond tomorrow really besides enough to say “looks fun”. Active period, arctic air in play, details TBD. With some not unreasonable luck, I could be near climo snowfall by this time next week. I’m excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 2 hours ago, Bob Chill said: CPC d8/11+ analogs are promising. I like seeing VDay 2007 popping up consistently. Ended up a sleetbomb for many but I'll take a repeat of that setup all day and the day after that. Mixed bag on both d8/11+ but it's not too weenie to focus on the good ones because the upper air pattern is as good as it gets really. What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog? Asking for a friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: I'm waiting for Ji to bring up Dec 2018 (i think that was the year) when we went from a multi-day sw flow firehose on the models that magically morphed into cool/dry. Dec 2016 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Pretty pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Right now the lag for 10mb = -NAO is 20 days. This is right on track with 15D model imo. Will see if 10mb strengthens with next -NAO 500mb peak, but this looks like a descending happening, 2-3 days away from "out of it". Edit: I think Feb 5 is +20 days, Feb 10 is +15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What were the next 3 weeks like after that Feb 1960 analog? Asking for a friend. Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks. 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Tell your friend to get some extra rest and tune up their shovels over the next 5 days. Cuz they gonna need both bigly maybe possibly kinda sorta cuz it's a lock unless it unlocks. May want the pick axe too 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 EPS Probability of 12” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: May want the pick axe too I’m fine with ice so long as I get a good amount of snow under it to turn into a glacier that lasts until Easter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m fine with ice so long as I get a good amount of snow under it to turn into a glacier that lasts until Easter. It's like we're the same person, but I'm taller and face is different 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 I'll buy what the 18z GFS is selling. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: EPS Probability of 12” Love the map but even if it showed a 163% chance, the chance of 0% is still much greater than 0%. Kinds like casino odds, MA weenies live in a world where odds are perpetually stacked against. One thing I've noticed since I dropped back in this year is there are some seriously f'd up people who like playing this game and they feel completely normal here. It gets almost too obvious when you take a hiatus. I'm no different. No throwing rocks at glass houses here. But I would NEVER disucss this place or what I post anywhere with anyone for any reason where normal people hang out. Good thing my wife has known there are some things seriously wrong with me before we even got married. She even joked about snow wx being my secret girlfriend. I told her she's the only one for me forever but to hang on until the 0z euro finishes before I prove it. Which makes complete sense with an imminent threat but I was waiting for hr216. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll buy what the 18z GFS is selling. What a progression. Tasty! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 34 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: May want the pick axe too At this late stage in my weenieism, only 6-12" of ice will scratch the itch. Kinda like a cat 5 up the bay with a left turn at point lookout. I'm no spring chicken and time is running out on apocalyptic epicness to hit b4 I'm gone. I'd be honored at this point for winter wx to take me out. Heck, I had to come to grips with the same thing in the colorado backcountry and avalanches. You can mitigate but not remove the risk. So you either accept that every descent could be your last or dont make the first turn. I always said "this could be your final run of your life. Is it worth it?". The answer was always resounding F YEA! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC. But after that it's an awesome storm day 11-12. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Lets just lock in the GFS thru D13 and move on to training camp and smallmouth.... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, Amped said: TooK the gfs over 36hrs to get the snow from Arkansas to DC. But after that it's an awesome storm day 11-12. My favorite non Canadian fantasy storm of the year. Historic snow and ice storm across a huge area. Slower moving than 2003 or 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 minute ago, poolz1 said: Lets just lock in the GFS thru D13 and move on to training camp and smallmouth.... Wow. Yea man. I'd be good if the next 2 weeks play out like that. A 3 day overrunning event and then a slow moving Miller A. Where do I sign? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Wow. Yea man. I'd be good if the next 2 weeks play out like that. A 3 day overrunning event and then a slow moving Miller A. Where do I sign? Pretty much forms a glacier across the US. Pretty impressive even for an op run. So much tracking ahead...gfs basically had us on the right side of everything that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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