Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[WVclimo]

7 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

On the GFS I count 6 strait 6 hour panels that are snowing on us. 

Then some ice then some Rain to end.

Sounds fun to me

And then the deep freeze and then another southern stream system with more snow per the OP GFS.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You'll like this post...

Many of us have noticed and discussed the hard evidence that our area LOVES compressed winter periods. Some winters never come of course but sometimes when a switch flips we suddenly start backing our way into things or enjoy all kinds of mid/short range "pop ups". Imho only, the switch flipped last weekend and it's not march 5th this go around. Not all events will work out of course but I strongly doubt boredom or sadness will return with vigor until this period shuts off. Whenever that is. 

Now that we finally got cold into N America and there is no sign the blocking we’ve had all season will break, it keeps recycling every wave break, we might have a pretty extended favorable window. 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS thru Day 7 looks good...(excludes tomorrow)

[poolz1]

The features are there but, man, models are certainly jumpy with the placement, shape/orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with energy coming out of the SW.  Wed/Thur overrunning seems like the only thing that has some agreement between globals....after that, the options are endless. 

Hopefully, by Mon we can gain some clarity on post Thursday weather.  Seems like a high ceiling depending on how much that final wave amplifies and where.  

[snowmagnet]

26 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You'll like this post...

Many of us have noticed and discussed the hard evidence that our area LOVES compressed winter periods. Some winters never come of course but sometimes when a switch flips we suddenly start backing our way into things or enjoy all kinds of mid/short range "pop ups". Imho only, the switch flipped last weekend and it's not march 5th this go around. Not all events will work out of course but I strongly doubt boredom or sadness will return with vigor until this period shuts off. Whenever that is. 

If I recall correctly, 2014 and 2015 were like that- maybe it was just 2015-- where we had several fairly significant snows in February.  I'm always hopeful for a snowy February and look forward to the next PD storm. 

[Weather Will]

L

 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

L

 

O

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

O

L

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

If I recall correctly, 2014 and 2015 were like that- maybe it was just 2015-- where we had several fairly significant snows in February.  I'm always hopeful for a snowy February and look forward to the next PD storm. 

Feb 15 was the extreme example. We keep taking giant hits off the no snow for you pipe all winter while parts of the NE looked like Jackson Hole. But that arctic front and "super squall" flipped the switch HARD. Could do no wrong afterwards. It wasnt even a "prime pattern" as it was ripping fast progressive and almost entirely EPO driven. Give us 5 of those winters in a row and we'd be lucky if 2 were solid. Unless you like ice of course. I do but only a foot or more. 

Wx loves to embed winning and losing streaks. It's just how it is. There is basically no such thing as a smooth "climo winter". I'd prefer one of course but a hot streak is better when they happen. 

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

The features are there but, man, models are certainly jumpy with the placement, shape/orientation of the TPV and how it interacts with energy coming out of the SW.  Wed/Thur overrunning seems like the only thing that has some agreement between globals....after that, the options are endless. 

Hopefully, by Mon we can gain some clarity on post Thursday weather.  Seems like a high ceiling depending on how much that final wave amplifies and where.  

They will be at this range but there are, by my count, about 4 waves riding the Arctic boundary over the next 2 weeks. I wouldn’t invest too much in any one solution but odds we get a good hit from one of these waves (and maybe more) are high. 

[DDweatherman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

They will be at this range but there are, by my count, about 4 waves riding the Arctic boundary over the next 2 weeks. I wouldn’t invest too much in any one solution but odds we get a good hit from one of these waves (and maybe more) are high. 

I already like our odds for mid-week. We’re only 4.5 days out and the overrunning piece is a relatively “easier” way to score. 

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Now that we finally got cold into N America and there is no sign the blocking we’ve had all season will break, it keeps recycling every wave break, we might have a pretty extended favorable window. 

Just a guess based on experience but I keep thinking we're good until climo window closes. Seems unlikely at this point that there will be an abrupt feb flip like 2010 or 2011. We'll prob just cruise thru Feb enjoying mid range and mostly forgetting about long range. There was a ton of that in 13-14 and 14-15. We're due!

[gopper]

V

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Feb 15 was the extreme example. We keep taking giant hits off the no snow for you pipe all winter while parts of the NE looked like Jackson Hole. But that arctic front and "super squall" flipped the switch HARD. Could do no wrong afterwards. It wasnt even a "prime pattern" as it was ripping fast progressive and almost entirely EPO driven. Give us 5 of those winters in a row and we'd be lucky if 2 were solid. Unless you like ice of course. I do but only a foot or more. 

Wx loves to embed winning and losing streaks. It's just how it is. There is basically no such thing as a smooth "climo winter". I'd prefer one of course but a hot streak is better when they happen. 

I had to leave the thread for tomorrow's storm.  The usual suspects have gone into full whine, negative mode, so I'm going to turn my attention to this storm and just enjoy whatever falls tomm.

This upcoming system seem kinda interesting.   It's relaxing because we already know it won't be 100% snow and is a challenge to forecast.   I guess there's a way we could score mostly snow, but kinda unlikely.

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I had to leave the thread for tomorrow's storm.  

Seriously, way too many Colin Robinsons on this board (What We Do in the Shadows reference - trust me - it's spot on). 

[JakkelWx]

The period around the 12th-14th is starting to gather my attention. Won't get too invested until I see more model runs portray the same general idea for another couple days.

3 minutes ago, gopper said:

V

Great post. We need more like it.

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I had to leave the thread for tomorrow's storm.  The usual suspects have gone into full whine, negative mode, so I'm going to turn my attention to this storm and just enjoy whatever falls tomm.

This upcoming system seem kinda interesting.   It's relaxing because we already know it won't be 100% snow and is a challenge to forecast.   I guess there's a way we could score mostly snow, but kinda unlikely.

People whining and freaking out are married to wx models and not thinking about how this stuff plays out. Fast moving storm with potential banding and a side order of temp issues. Not the thought police but expecting more than 2-4/3-6 is user error imo. Sure, boom potential exists but banking on statistical outlier outcomes will give weenies a curb sandwich like 98% of the time

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just a guess based on experience but I keep thinking we're good until climo window closes. Seems unlikely at this point that there will be an abrupt feb flip like 2010 or 2011. We'll prob just cruise thru Feb enjoying mid range and mostly forgetting about long range. There was a ton of that in 13-14 and 14-15. We're due!

Agreed 

[DDweatherman]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Meet too. There's hints of the whole column staying intact for a decently long all snow 1st part . 

You can tell we’re in an okay pattern with snow expected tomorrow. Otherwise folks would be lighting this thread up with current models showing what they are. 12z gfs was nice, hope it gets more euro support

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

People whining and freaking out are married to wx models and not thinking about how this stuff plays out. Fast moving storm with potential banding and a side order of temp issues. Not the thought police but expecting more than 2-4/3-6 is user error imo. Sure, boom potential exists but banking on statistical outlier outcomes will give weenies a curb sandwich like 98% of the time

There is extremism on both sides. On the one hand there was a 48 hour period of a steady amplification trend through yesterday’s 18z. And I do think it was fair to see the possibility that had that continued a legit 4-8 maybe 10” thump was possible. Some red tags were even pulling out the weenie vocabulary with fgen and instability banding.  I think it’s fair to both point out that guidance is backing away from that scenario and be a little disappointed by that. On the other hand it’s still going to snow and just because it’s not 8” doesn’t mean people can’t enjoy a 2-4” event if that’s what it becomes. But some seem to get upset when i simply make an observation that guidance trended less amplified and on the other side some take that to the extreme and cancel the whole event. 

[snowfan]

Feb 14 2015 was the epic squall that blew through in the evening. Traffic went to hell. Winds were gusting in the 40s. So much fun.

If my memory isn't trash, I recall randy and deck pic being in Davis for that one. 

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, snowfan said:

Feb 14 2015 was the epic squall that blew through in the evening. Traffic went to hell. Winds were gusting in the 40s. So much fun.

If my memory isn't trash, I recall randy and deck pic being in Davis for that one. 

That started a nice run for us that went through March too.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is extremism on both sides.

No doubt man. I def wasnt digging at you or anyone with extensive knowledge. It's a hit and run storm. Bands could rip even if all models say no today. The speed itself is a flag that 10" is quite a feat of luck and good fortune. Someome is prob going to approach that amount imo. Who is something I cant answer. My yard will end up somewhere in the middle as usual. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

No doubt man. I def wasnt digging at you or anyone with extensive knowledge. It's a hit and run storm. Bands could rip even if all models say no today. The speed itself is a flag that 10" is quite a feat of luck and good fortune. Someome is prob going to approach that amount imo. Who is something I cant answer. My yard will end up somewhere in the middle as usual. 

I know. I said I expect it might juice up at 18/0z but all anyone seems to see is “he said it’s going to fail” because I pointed out the 12z guidance was dryer and why that wouldn’t be good. 

[Bob Chill]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know. I said I expect it might juice up at 18/0z but all anyone seems to see is “he said it’s going to fail” because I pointed out the 12z guidance was dryer and why that wouldn’t be good. 

Just my weenie opinion but models cutting off "decent" qpf along or near 95 will prob be wrong. It's a compact storm but these usually end up more broad to the NW with qpf distribution. I can't think of any shortwave with a defined lp center on the current track that didnt expand in the closing minutes. You can prob rattle off 6 that didn't tho cuz you b past event rainman and stuff. There a few of you northern folks who are literally a hard drive. Must be the cleaner air up there or something

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Just my weenie opinion but models cutting off "decent" qpf along or near 95 will prob be wrong. It's a compact storm but these usually end up more broad to the NW with qpf distribution. I can't think of any shortwave with a defined lp center on the current track that didnt expand in the closing minutes. You can prob rattle off 6 that didn't tho cuz you b past event rainman and stuff. There a few of those northern folks who are literally a hard drive. Must be the cleaner air up there or something

Nothing really to cause a tight cutoff on that one on the NW side. Would tend to agree here. I like 3-5” for most. SE folks get there from better rates and we do via better thermals. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Euro off to a slightly colder start for our overrunning.  Love tracking multiple threats that aren’t in the fantasy range. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Nothing really to cause a tight cutoff on that one on the NW side. Would tend to agree here. I like 3-5” for most. SE folks get there from better rates and we do via better thermals. 

The 13-15 stretch had some nw busts/cutoffs but that's always a risk when there's full on static eletricity storm dry arctic air to push out of the way. There's nothing really impeding a nw expansion other than it being a single stream compact storm. For those reasons I do think the sig dry model runs today out that way could *potentially* be overdone. But since I'm sitting in the middle I dont care about that stuff really 

[LP08]

Just now, DCTeacherman said:

Euro off to a slightly colder start for our overrunning.  Love tracking multiple threats that aren’t in the fantasy range. 

Nice snowy shift for Thursday.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Daytime snow in the mid 20s Thursday, you love to see it.