Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Ji]

The long range seems to have fallen off the rails tonight lol

[yoda]

LWX morning AFD for Wed-Fri

 

Quote

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low pressure will cross the area Tue afternoon and bring mainly
rain. Can`t rule out some wintry precip early in the day if precip
arrives early, but any wintry precip looks to be very brief and QPF
is low anyway. High pressure then gradually noses down into the
area from northwest Ontario setting up a cold air damming event
for the middle portion of next week. Global models now show
overrunning wintry precip breaking out across the area Wed night
through Thu night as waves of low pressure develop along a
stationary front across the south and lift northeast along a
coastal front. This wintry precip scenario is farther south than
indicated yesterday in model guidance which had snow north of
the Mason Dixon line. The latest ECMWF and Canadian models have
also backed off on the eastward extent of Arctic air with only
the GFS showing Arctic air arriving around Valentine`s Day. Lots
of volatility in model guidance recently making long term
portion of the fcst more uncertain than normal. Have turned on
Days 3-7 Winter matrix yellow for Wed and Thu.

 

[Weather Will]

 WB 0Z EPS, hopefully everyone will be happy at the end of the next two weeks...impressive snow mean and probs! (3,6,12,18,24)

[yoda]

06z GFS signaling big ice threat mid to late week... then some heavy snow on top to finish it off

And then sends us into the icebox right after

[yoda]

06z GFS says hi welcome to the icebox on Feb 13 where highs are below zero in the mountains and 0-10 elsewhere

oh hai Saturday night... lows -10 near DC... -20 to -25 along Allegheny Front

[Ji]

06z GFS signaling big ice threat mid to late week... then some heavy snow on top to finish it off
And then sends us into the icebox right after

Best run yet snow to ice to anow

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GFS says hi welcome to the icebox on Feb 13 where highs are below zero in the mountains and 0-10 elsewhere

Hard to fathom a sub 10F high temp in these parts.  It’s been a long time that I can remember. Actually not sure I can remember 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GFS signaling big ice threat mid to late week... then some heavy snow on top to finish it off

And then sends us into the icebox right after

Not nuts about ice but I would take it if it ends up snow then deep freeze.

[CAPE]

[yoda]

Wind chills of -20 to -30 for majority of region?  30-40 below zero along i81 corridor?  And up to 55 below zero in Garrett County?  You want it next Saturday night into Sunday morning?  Its yours my friend

 

[aldie 22]

36 minutes ago, Ji said:

47 minutes ago, yoda said:

06z GFS signaling big ice threat mid to late week... then some heavy snow on top to finish it off
And then sends us into the icebox right after

Best run yet snow to ice to anow

I'm having waffles for breakfast 

[yoda]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I'm having waffles for breakfast 

better have syrup on them

[LeesburgWx]

44 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wind chills of -20 to -30 for majority of region?  30-40 below zero along i81 corridor?  And up to 55 below zero in Garrett County?  You want it next Saturday night into Sunday morning?  Its yours my friend

 

Good God, does this even have 5% chance of verifying? I feel like every year we have similar solutions get portrayed on models 7 days out and it never materialized. I understand this year the pattern is in place but damn that is intense.

[aldie 22]

47 minutes ago, yoda said:

Wind chills of -20 to -30 for majority of region?  30-40 below zero along i81 corridor?  And up to 55 below zero in Garrett County?  You want it next Saturday night into Sunday morning?  Its yours my friend

 

How will people stay warm on Valentine's day? 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

Wind chills of -20 to -30 for majority of region?  30-40 below zero along i81 corridor?  And up to 55 below zero in Garrett County?  You want it next Saturday night into Sunday morning?  Its yours my friend

 

I cannot wait to see what the actual temps are.

[WVclimo]

12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I cannot wait to see what the actual temps are.

00Z Euro has Winchester at +31 at the same time 06Z GFS said -15.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Does the EPS like the GFS trailing wave idea or are they keeping us a bit colder for the initial overrunning?

[WinterWxLuvr]

17 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

00Z Euro has Winchester at +31 at the same time 06Z GFS said -15.

I’m gonna go with the 31

[WVclimo]

5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m gonna go with the 31

That 06Z GFS run gives us 54 hours of frozen precip at the end of the week: 9” of snow, an inch of sleet, and a quarter-inch of freezing rain followed by 3 nights in a row below zero.  USA! USA!

[snowmagnet]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

 WB 0Z EPS, hopefully everyone will be happy at the end of the next two weeks...impressive snow mean and probs! (3,6,12,18,24)

This is incredible. If this ends up accurate, the King will keep his crown. 

[dailylurker]

When it comes to snow in this area there's no such thing as a 100% chance. It's not even a 100% chance it snows tomorrow lol

[frd]

 

Nice discussion by Mount Holly on the threat for the period Feb 11 th to the 13  th. 

 

Another brief round of high pressure is expected Tuesday night
and Wednesday, but the next southern-stream system migrates
rapidly eastward across the central U.S. during this time frame.
With subtly increased downstream ridge amplification, the Gulf
of Mexico should be open for business for this next system.
With improving dynamics via a strengthening anticyclonic upper-
level jet in the Northeast, widespread lift should generate a
broad region of precipitation across the lower Mississippi
Valley northeastward to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians
by Wednesday night. Low pressure will strengthen in vicinity of
the somewhat zonally-oriented baroclinic zone across the Ohio
Valley eastward to the central Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. The
GFS and ECMWF have begun to converge on a solution in which
translation of low pressure occurs to the Mid-Atlantic coast by
Friday.

This event has many characteristics of a significant winter
storm for the Northeast with all of the complications we know
and love to hate in Mid-Atlantic winter-weather forecasting.
There will be antecedent high pressure to the north (albeit in a
somewhat transient sense) and slow-to-erode cold air in our
region, a strong fetch of moisture from lower latitudes in
advance of the developing cyclone, and phasing of the northern
stream and southern stream that initiates well west of the
coast. Of course, there will also be significant variations in
the evolving low near the coast, substantial warm/moist
advection introducing precipitation type concerns on the south
side of the system, and timing issues both with the initial
onset of precipitation (typically too fast) and with the
potential dry slot (with systematic model biases sure to play a
role here).

A lot to digest, certainly, but the bottom line is that another
impactful winter storm may occur in at least portions of our
area by week`s end. Stay tuned.

[Cobalt]

Judging by the temp/snowfall means during this period, this might not be a bad thing depending on how much Arctic air from the PV lobe filters into our area beforehand. Seems like a fair bit of solutions try to get a storm to bully through some cold air that's already made it's way into the East at around D10-12. Clear CAD signal on the 0z EPS because of that too. Might be what it takes to avoid cold/dry. 

[WVclimo]

12Z GFS holding on to this idea for Wednesday evening through Thursday.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I may not yet be the best at deciphering things on the macro level in the long range but...from the looks of it, looks like a wacky week of tracking ahead, lol Buckle up!

It does look that way, indeed.  Can't take any one deterministic outlook at face value at this range (of course!).  But there have been some wacky looking scenarios thrown out there starting about next Wednesday or so.

[Maestrobjwa]

Now I may not yet be the best at deciphering things on the macro level in the long range but...to my eyes, looks like a wacky week of tracking ahead, lol Buckle up! Thanks for the update @frd ...Gulf of Mexico being open for business sounds great 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

It does look that way, indeed.  Can't take any one deterministic outlook at face value at this range (of course!).  But there have been some wacky looking scenarios thrown out there starting about next Wednesday or so.

Yeah seriously...got all those waves and the icy scenarios and the huge slug of moisture...feels like a literal snow globe of ideas...where shall it all settle? Stay tuned, lol

[Bob Chill]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah seriously...got all those waves and the icy scenarios and the huge slug of moisture...feels like a literal snow globe of ideas...where shall it all settle? Stay tuned, lol

You'll like this post...

Many of us have noticed and discussed the hard evidence that our area LOVES compressed winter periods. Some winters never come of course but sometimes when a switch flips we suddenly start backing our way into things or enjoy all kinds of mid/short range "pop ups". Imho only, the switch flipped last weekend and it's not march 5th this go around. Not all events will work out of course but I strongly doubt boredom or sadness will return with vigor until this period shuts off. Whenever that is. 

[T. August]

12z GFS completely dropped the frigid temps in the MA. It does however have a big dog lurking at like 216-270.

[Chris78]

44 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

12Z GFS holding on to this idea for Wednesday evening through Thursday.

On the GFS I count 6 strait 6 hour panels that are snowing on us. 

Then some ice then some Rain to end.

Sounds fun to me