Cobalt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Thanks @MillvilleWx and @HighStakes I appreciate it a lot. A lot of it is due to excellent posters such as yourselves. I've learned a lot in just the past year alone, and it feels like the field of knowledge in meteorology is virtually endless (which is a good thing, of course!) Anywho, the EPS looks like it moved to what the OP was suggesting, but as I felt it would be, it's not as extreme, and looks similar to the GEFS in how the PV lobe is consolidated and also how it's located. Seems like that location strikes the perfect balance because that's an absolute firehose of precipitation trailing up with the overrunning. The PV is also right on it's heels, so anything that falls would stay around. In fact the mean trended colder for that period around 180hrs onwards, so probably some absolutely frigid members in there following the overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Thanks @MillvilleWx and @HighStakes I appreciate it a lot. A lot of it is due to excellent posters such as yourselves. I've learned a lot in just the past year alone, and it feels like the field of knowledge in meteorology is virtually endless (which is a good thing, of course!) Anywho, the EPS looks like it moved to what the OP was suggesting, but as I felt it would be, it's not as extreme, and looks similar to the GEFS in how the PV lobe is consolidated and also how it's located. Seems like that location strikes the perfect balance because that's an absolute firehose of precipitation trailing up with the overrunning. The PV is also right on it's heels, so anything that falls would stay around. In fact the mean trended colder for that period around 180hrs onwards, so probably some absolutely frigid members in there following the overrunning event. Yes, good posting, Cobalt! I'm all for more snow than ice, for sure. So it's good to see the GEFS and EPS mean a little more on the colder/snowier side; keep us above that boundary. A little ice in there isn't too bad, even very interesting, but I think everyone here would prefer to mostly to see accumulating snow of course. And yeah, that frigid air hanging around would keep anything that falls on the ground there for awhile if true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 18 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps increased the signal for midweek to late week . Nice hits in there . Mean is plenty cold overall . The signal looks more snowy then icy imo Eps basically says don't put the shovels away for at least the next 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes, good posting, Cobalt! I'm all for more snow than ice, for sure. So it's good to see the GEFS and EPS mean a little more on the colder/snowier side; keep us above that boundary. A little ice in there isn't too bad, even very interesting, but I think everyone here would prefer to mostly to see accumulating snow of course. And yeah, that frigid air hanging around would keep anything that falls on the ground there for awhile if true. At the very least it seems like we're going to get a decent feed of moisture coming through our area next week, snow, ice, or otherwise. Fun times ahead! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: At the very least it seems like we're going to get a decent feed of moisture coming through our area next week, snow, ice, or otherwise. Fun times ahead! I like the max stripe being slightly off to our southeast, that indicates we are more likely to be on the correct side of the boundary. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Thanks @MillvilleWx and @HighStakes I appreciate it a lot. A lot of it is due to excellent posters such as yourselves. I've learned a lot in just the past year alone, and it feels like the field of knowledge in meteorology is virtually endless (which is a good thing, of course!) Anywho, the EPS looks like it moved to what the OP was suggesting, but as I felt it would be, it's not as extreme, and looks similar to the GEFS in how the PV lobe is consolidated and also how it's located. Seems like that location strikes the perfect balance because that's an absolute firehose of precipitation trailing up with the overrunning. The PV is also right on it's heels, so anything that falls would stay around. In fact the mean trended colder for that period around 180hrs onwards, so probably some absolutely frigid members in there following the overrunning event. You're welcome. Keep up the good work. It's good to see you and some others taking advantage of a wealth of knowledge, wisdom and experience available on the board. Now we just need a few more to follow suit lol. It's hard not to be pumped up at the possibilities. There's nothing like tracking multiple events and being locked into a favorable pattern. We go very long stretches without being able to do so. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: At the very least it seems like we're going to get a decent feed of moisture coming through our area next week, snow, ice, or otherwise. Fun times ahead! Yeah, all models are showing a veritable firehose of precip through that time period! ETA: And several wave impulses propagating along that. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Eps has a better positioned TpV and its snow mean is probably the best we’ve at this range all year? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Eps has a better positioned TpV and its snow mean is probably the best we’ve at this range all year? That's the mean, at that range? Amazingly high...must be some big hits in there. (Oh, and time to charge your phone, LOL!! Yeah, had to go there once again, sorry!!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Eps has a better positioned TpV and its snow mean is probably the best we’ve at this range all year? Is your phone like...perpetually low on battery? Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Is it a good or a bad sign for snow when Wentz's phone battery is very low? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Is it a good or a bad sign for snow when Wentz's phone battery is very low? I mean, hard to tell considering it ALWAYS is low, but also ALWAYS is charging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wlantry Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Crippling. If temps are in the mid-20s and we get steady light rain, it would be crippling. God forbid it would be even a little windy to boot. True ice storms are very rare. The Nashville one mentioned in 1994 was one such - that stretched all the way back along I-40 to Oklahoma if memory serves. Anyone who cares at all about trees, power, and the like should not want to see a true ice storm. Pics from Nashville in 1994: https://www.tennessean.com/picture-gallery/news/local/2015/02/16/nashville-then-ice-storm-of-1994/23505561/ Here's a report from Memphis from the great southern ice storm of 1994... https://www.wmcactionnews5.com/2019/02/11/breakdown-looking-back-ice-storm-feb/#:~:text=MEMPHIS%2C TN (WMC) -,history occurred%3A Ice Storm 94.&text=That swath of moisture brought,as rain early Wednesday morning. Yep, not a good time. We had young children. We also had the only woodstove in the neighborhood. Luckily, we had a pretty big living room, because we had several families with very young children camped out in that room for a week. This was a stone's throw from downtown Nashville. If you've never been in a real ice storm, trust me: it's not like wishing for a nice big snow storm. You really don't want an inch of ice all over everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Wentzadelphia said: Eps has a better positioned TpV and its snow mean is probably the best we’ve at this range all year? i like seeing the Blue southwest of us. Lance will be happy this week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Ji said: i like seeing the Blue southwest of us. Lance will be happy this week Looking at the surface and mid levels I think SV is wrong it’s more of a mix down there. Sv snow map likes to count sleet as snow for some reason. Better mean up towards us when comparing to wxbell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hobbes9 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 Yes please and thank you. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 38 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Looking at the surface and mid levels I think SV is wrong it’s more of a mix down there. Sv snow map likes to count sleet as snow for some reason. Better mean up towards us when comparing to wxbell For future reference, Is it possible to save a map from SV to your photos on mobile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: For future reference, Is it possible to save a map from SV to your photos on mobile? Some of the maps don’t let you for some reason it’s odd. Only reason I screenshot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs with a slow moving beast next week. Trying to maybe transfer looking at 162 in future frames. Regardless...this timeframe looks ripe as heck for cad and possible long duration . all it did was transfer us a heartache 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 24 minutes ago, Ji said: all it did was transfer us a heartache How's all that detailed op long tracking been working out for you this year? Just locked and loaded from a week+ out right? 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: How's all that detailed op long tracking been working out for you this year? Just locked and loaded from a week+ out right? I have been trying to keep this very thing in mind...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 5, 2021 Share Posted February 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I have been trying to keep this very thing in mind...lol With the insane amount of freely available model data... it can be a lot easier said than done. I'm guilty just like everyone else. But you can keep it simple in the mid/long range by just acknowledging the existence of the potential day after day. Crunch time doesnt even start until inside of hr96 the way I look at it. Whenever I see potential I track the rug pull details only. Like losing mid level temps or track too far west etc. We always live on the edge here. It doesnt take much to stomp on our dreams. Focus on macro d4+ and fret on micro d3 on in. Much smoother hobby that way IME 11 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 WB 18Z GFS 16 Day snow map enjoy!!! 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 Fringed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS 16 Day snow map enjoy!!! Guess my gf is coming to leesburg 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 13 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: See how it works when precip actually gets within 200 miles We have had plenty of that action the last 2 years. Not so much on the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS 16 Day snow map enjoy!!! @wxdude64 jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: @wxdude64 jackpot Groundhog Day -a 30" storm on the maps every Sunday for the next 6 weeks! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6, 2021 Share Posted February 6, 2021 The icon must of sucked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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