psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 @Ji the 12z gefs has the best signal for a discreet period (Jan 25-29) that we’ve seen since Dec. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 I am a novice but the op euro looks like it is gonna drop an atomic bomb across CONUS around D10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Ji the 12z gefs has the best signal for a discreet period (Jan 25-29) that we’ve seen since Dec. I don't mean to be a pain here but could you use "discrete". Discreet brings back bad memories. My sister lost a spelling bee because she spelled indiscreet as follows: I N D I S C R E T E. 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Paleocene said: I am a novice but the op euro looks like it is gonna drop an atomic bomb across CONUS around D10 atomic bomb is right. Lots of heat. cant even get our blocking to hold the HP and yes...i know this will be supressed at 0z update: Looks like a major ice storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 That must be the January thaw storm on time as usual 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, RedSky said: That must be the January thaw storm on time as usual its actually pretty cold at the surface. It might be a legit ice storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 @frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!! It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh By day 10 day 15 we have to let this play out. We have not had a pattern with cold available yet. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 19 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: I don't mean to be a pain here but could you use "discrete". Discreet brings back bad memories. My sister lost a spelling bee because she spelled indiscreet as follows: I N D I S C R E T E. I will try to be discreet about how I use discrete 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!! It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh By day 10 day 15 we have to let this play out. We have not had a pattern with cold available yet. Great illustration. Now say something to make me feel good about precip making into our region and I’ll be able to sleep tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 The cold buildup in Canada is three weeks late this year due to torch Pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Great illustration. Now say something to make me feel good about precip making into our region and I’ll be able to sleep tonight Lack of cold means less thermal gradient which means less baroclinic instability or potential energy for storms. What mechanism do waves have to amplify with no boundary? Let’s see what happens with a true tight baroclinic zone for waves to work with. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Only 10 days away! 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2021 Author Share Posted January 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lack of cold means less thermal gradient which means less baroclinic instability or potential energy for storms. What mechanism do waves have to amplify with no boundary? Let’s see what happens with a true tight baroclinic zone for waves to work with. I like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only 10 days away! Not kidding...if this ^ doesn’t work...it’s really time to just accept our fate and give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nothin cuts lol. West based block. All H's 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowproblem Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd @Ji I know this is frustrating but taking a step back to look at the big picture...this was probably the low point in terms of thermal profile in our source regions 2 days ago. Look at our source regions in Canada!!!! It’s near 32 degrees even in Canada at 7am!!! Ugh I just want to take a moment and thank you, @psuhoffman, for your reasoned responses and patience. It is my understanding these long range threads are supposed to be about analysis and model discussions about long range threats. With @Bob Chill and @showmethesnow MIA, you are the voice of reason and one of the few members who actually posts true analysis consistently. So, again, thank you and please continue to post. I don’t mind occasional tangents but, unfortunately, some folks on here primarily post just to bitch and moan. It’s tiresome and I wish they would take it banter or panic room. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nothin cuts lol. West based block. All H's Probably the only time any random 24 hour snow mean should be used outside of 10 days is to show how impressive a signal like this is.. like wow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only 10 days away! It was 11 yesterday lol. Honestly though that period between the 24-30 looks really good. I was never invested in the 22. Too many flaws. But if we start to see degradation to the look from the possibly 2/3 waves in the 24-30 time period then I will be more frustrated. That’s been my target and when the progression made sense for a while I’m sticking too it. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only 10 days away! That should be your new quote! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 29 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only 10 days away! till what? Freezing rain for an hour before going to plain rain? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 If there's any time to notice a day 10 signal.. that cluster is strikingly impressive. As PSU said, was 11 days to go yesterday, now 10. Just a few days for this look to not completely fall apart and we have a threat to track. Also the high pressure showing up on the ensembles is impressive too. Can't really ask for more this far out 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 41 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Only 10 days away! Shut up Chuck 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Not to be a jerk and honestly asking since I’m not paying close attention...but is it getting closer in time? Cuz those maps above are 256-264hrs away... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Not to be a jerk and honestly asking since I’m not paying close attention...but is it getting closer in time? Cuz those maps above are 256-264hrs away... PSU has mentioned the threat on the 26th for around 2-4 days, so yes it is getting closer in time. I only pointed out that the ensembles have quite the consensus this far out, especially when compared to the paltry signal that it had for the 22 non-threat just a few days ago. My point is, the threat has legs. What pair of legs it has is still tbd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just adding this to the "signal party". That's DCA, the means look better the further west you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 12z EPS is a thing of beauty day 10-15! 2 clear strong signals and setting up another just after day 15. The potential is not a long range figment. It’s a result of the pattern the front 10 days simply progressing. This (day 1-10 mean) leads to the threats day 10-15 once cold gets into the pattern. This is a STRONG signal for these leads on an ensemble. day 10/11 Day 13/14 this is more washed out due to timing differences at that range. The pattern is still ripe and setting up another wave at day 15. 24 hours later I see nothing that would make me adjust what I said yesterday wrt how this pattern is likely to progress. 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Yikes !! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Not to be a jerk and honestly asking since I’m not paying close attention...but is it getting closer in time? Cuz those maps above are 256-264hrs away... Yes...honestly it is. Some were hopeful the wave around the 22nd would become a legit threat but that was always a long shot Imo. The waves after that always looked better wrt the progression. The first discreet wave in that period looks to be around the 24/25 and it’s been stuck there. It has slowed some and looks more like the 25 v the 24 over the last few days but it’s the same wave the guidance is just doing what it typically does in blocking regimes and slowing the waves as we get closer. I think from long range Jan 22 2016 looked like closer to the 20th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: is just doing what it typically does in blocking regimes and slowing the waves as we get closer. Great point ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 15, 2021 Share Posted January 15, 2021 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 12z EPS is a thing of beauty day 10-15! 2 clear strong signals and setting up another just after day 15. The potential is not a long range figment. It’s a result of the pattern the front 10 days simply progressing. This (day 1-10 mean) leads to the threats day 10-15 once cold gets into the pattern. This is a STRONG signal for these leads on an ensemble. day 10/11 Day 13/14 this is more washed out due to timing differences at that range. The pattern is still ripe and setting up another wave at day 15. 24 hours later I see nothing that would make me adjust what I said yesterday wrt how this pattern is likely to progress. Thanks for continuing to break it down for us. I like your bullishness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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