WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 hour ago, jayyy said: It ain’t over for sure! Actually think this depicted storm will be our second to last shot at a biggie. There will likely be another shot at a big storm after the pattern reloads in mid March (The last hurrah). Some long range guidance is hinting at another attempt at high latitude blocking around the March 14th timeframe. Will it be tough? Yep. Will it be 40-50, maybe even touch 60 some days over the next 4-6 weeks? Yep. But there’s plenty of evidence that we will have at least 2 more windows of opportunity - including a Miller A meeting a nicely timed cold shot mid month. I don’t see anything in the EPS GEFS or EC that screams that the kiss of death for winter is upon us. Not even close. I totally agree. Even the worst of winters, except maybe last year, were most definitely not over this early. To be quite honest, I’m not far from being at the point where I’d like to see some sun and warmth so this isn’t wishcasting on my part. I seriously doubt that we are done with cold and wintry weather. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 Winter comes regardless of snow. Just thought I'd chime in on that. Kind of lost faith in any models this year. Either the technology isn't fine tuned enough or historical patterns have less validity. I'm not a met, so heck if I know. But it's almost comical and bizarre the amount of maps that swing wildly (snow total wise) as systems set up and form. Maybe the public has access to too many clown maps now. If you live in a complex climate region for snow there's really no need in getting too fixated about high amounts. Sometimes you gotta take what you got and enjoy it. Or move your butt to Maine, Michigan, or anywhere in snow climo. They don't even care about the stuff up there, they get so much. Trust me, I got people up there and they complain about too much snow! Grass is greener, lol. Or whiter! Are you really gonna do anything more with a foot of snow than 4 inches, other than the cool factor? It's only a big deal in this region because of the challenge of forecasting. I'm a snow lover, but I ain't diving off a bridge about it. And if it hangs around too long it gets funky and dirty lookin'. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I totally agree. Even the worst of winters, except maybe last year, were most definitely not over this early. To be quite honest, I’m not far from being at the point where I’d like to see some sun and warmth so this isn’t wishcasting on my part. I seriously doubt that we are done with cold and wintry weather. Mid 50s later this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 23 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said: Mid 50s later this week! How about 70's in 8 days? 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 WB 12Z PARA says snow end of the week... 3 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA says snow end of the week... Thank god for the Para! I’ve got so much digital snow this winter that I’ll still be shoveling out my delete folder in June. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Pixee Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA says snow end of the week... I ignore all maps. It's a thing with me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 12z Euro does get some white rain into the western burbs on Saturday with surface temps in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA says snow end of the week... PARA verifies as much as the Euro Control. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nice front end thump Friday per Para . Euro and Gfs showing potential. Just saw that. This event is strange in that models keep showing it and then completely losing it. May be a surprise in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 21, 2021 Author Share Posted February 21, 2021 And don’t forget the ICON. It has led the way in sniffing out the past two events 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 5 hours ago, clskinsfan said: How about 70's in 8 days? 5 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z PARA says snow end of the week... This is what I was referring to @Ji . Yeah, we’re gonna torch for a few days around March 1st. And we may very well see 4-8” 2 days before. Cold air in place with a ton of warm air down south = a dynamic environment for a juicy Gulf storm. Let’s roll with it. Keep our expectations realistic, and I think we’ll be pleasantly surprised come end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 21, 2021 Share Posted February 21, 2021 54 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Just saw that. This event is strange in that models keep showing it and then completely losing it. May be a surprise in store Those are usually the storms that pan out for us, right!? (I kid. Just being blindly optimistic) Feel like that used to happen fairly frequently back in the day though. Euro and long range GFS would sniff out a threat in the 7-10 day range, lose it, then get it back day in the 4-5 day timeframe. Maybe we get lucky and score 2 little events this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Shades of last year in Pacific, and the last few years It continues I like this analog Wild card is potential Kelvin Wave, and we'll have a completely different scenario ,it will be opposite than last year. Something to watch out for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Wtf is that post? 2 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 41 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Shades of last year in Pacific, and the last few years It continues I like this analog Wild card is potential Kelvin Wave, and we'll have a completely different scenario ,it will be opposite than last year. Something to watch out for. You realize that this 2021 right? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 He isn’t wrong that the pac pattern has been the same for 5 years now. And yea it’s very likely to continue. But the last 4 years the March pattern was very different each year depending on other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You realize that this 2021 right? Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He isn’t wrong that the pac pattern has been the same for 5 years now. And yea it’s very likely to continue. But the last 4 years the March pattern was very different each year depending on other factors. I recall you mentioned that it seems like this change suddenly became more prevalent after our Super Nino. This is a rather novice question, but would a strong Nina help change some of that PAC forcing? Or is that pattern just being more amplified by our current base state? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: He isn’t wrong that the pac pattern has been the same for 5 years now. And yea it’s very likely to continue. But the last 4 years the March pattern was very different each year depending on other factors. And we didn’t have blocking for 10 years. Past occurrence doesn’t predict the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 15 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I recall you mentioned that it seems like this change suddenly became more prevalent after our Super Nino. This is a rather novice question, but would a strong Nina help change some of that PAC forcing? Or is that pattern just being more amplified by our current base state? Yeah crazy man 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 4 minutes ago, Cobalt said: I recall you mentioned that it seems like this change suddenly became more prevalent after our Super Nino. This is a rather novice question, but would a strong Nina help change some of that PAC forcing? Or is that pattern just being more amplified by our current base state? I honestly don’t know. There is speculation the SSTs in the Indian Ocean are partially to blame also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 I'm all-in for Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 I'm all-in for SaturdayEuro has big snow to big rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Has the look of another inland deal- maybe as far west as the highlands. Meh. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Both Euro and Para with a nice front end mini thump for many areas overnight Friday. Good timing being overnight atm. Have to see where it goes from here . Long ways out . Add the CMC to the list I don't care for the look on the means, but I suppose it could improve. Again the synoptic setup as advertised is pretty hostile for eastern portions of the region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2021 Author Share Posted February 22, 2021 The storm that was there, then gone, then back, then gone LOL, seems to be back across all models. Details now to be worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 40 minutes ago, CAPE said: I don't care for the look on the means, but I suppose it could improve. Again the synoptic setup as advertised is pretty hostile for eastern portions of the region. It's looking the spring for us east of the fall line imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 22, 2021 Share Posted February 22, 2021 12 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Yeah crazy man Ok, but how would you describe the maps tho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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