Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

[Ji]

euro has storm moving at molasses speed but it looks better than 0z

[87storms]

euro looks more north and slower with the next friday situation.  not a strong low, but we'll see how the next panels play out.

[Ji]

Just now, 87storms said:

euro looks more north and slower with the next friday situation.  not a strong low, but we'll see how the next panels play out.

looking like its getting shredded as it approaches us smh

[Dabuckeyes]

At 180 it looks like the High gobbled up the low like pacman

[Ji]

the euro hates us so much. Its truly Dr no. And when it says yes...its still no

[87storms]

Just now, Ji said:

looking like its getting shredded as it approaches us smh

yea, but gotta wonder if the high would stay locked in like that.  it's not the best look at 500, but it's a southern wave and we're nearing the end of prime climo, so worth tracking.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

the euro hates us so much. Its truly Dr no. And when it says yes...its still no

Yes , or No , same outcome here. 

I can really appreciate your frustration this year.  

[Ji]

looks like it moves so slow that it does graze us but all the cold air is gone so we get a mini snow

[Amped]

Thanks SE ridge..  You took 90% of our snow and I'm so happy you didn't take 100% of it.

 

yet

 

[87storms]

6 minutes ago, Amped said:

Thanks SE ridge..  You took 90% of our snow and I'm so happy you didn't take 100% of it.

 

yet

 

it's been diesel lately, though i do approve of the 50 degree temps midweek.  i'm sure the deep south does, too.  reshuffle the deck and let's see if next friday/first week of march can deliver.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Historically. Yes. Last few years. Definitely no. Which has created a perception.

DC beat Philly in 2019 and both had barely any snow in 2020. Philly will win this year. But it’s not as lopsided as perception. Thing is when DC/Balt misses to the north they often assume everyone north of them did great when often the north trend screwed Philly some too. They may have done marginally better but not as good as people in here think.  Then when we beat Philly like in several storms in 2010 and 2014 and 2015 and 2016 and 2019 people don’t even notice.  I grew up 15 miles from Philly in S NJ. My climo was same as south Philly and I was about 10 miles due east of the airport and my totals almost always matched Philly Int. Where I lived in N VA near Herndon was better for snow. Trust me.  Philly was better then downtown DC though. Kind of on par with the DC NW burbs. But there is this perception Philly climo is way better and like mine up here. It isn’t. I spent 15 years there complaint the same way people here do when 9/10 storms screwed me over and I got 1” slop to rain while 20 miles NW was getting 4-8” or more. Same thing. 

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

DC beat Philly in 2019 and both had barely any snow in 2020. Philly will win this year. But it’s not as lopsided as perception. Thing is when DC/Balt misses to the north they often assume everyone north of them did great when often the north trend screwed Philly some too. They may have done marginally better but not as good as people in here think.  Then when we beat Philly like in several storms in 2010 and 2014 and 2015 and 2016 and 2019 people don’t even notice.  I grew up 15 miles from Philly in S NJ. My climo was same as south Philly and I was about 10 miles due east of the airport and my totals almost always matched Philly Int. Where I lived in N VA near Herndon was better for snow. Trust me.  Philly was better then downtown DC though. Kind of on par with the DC NW burbs. But there is this perception Philly climo is way better and like mine up here. It isn’t. I spent 15 years there complaint the same way people here do when 9/10 storms screwed me over and I got 1” slop to rain while 20 miles NW was getting 4-8” or more. Same thing. 

We used to despise the term “...more north and west” when I was a kid. We flipped to mix a *lot* and always felt that we were on the outside looking in.

[psuhoffman]

@RevWarReenactor if we want to be jealous be jealous of N NJ. Once you hit N NJ and get some elevation and west of the NYC UHI the climo changes radically. Snow averages skyrocket from like 25” to 50”+ over 20 miles!  Ice fishing is a regular thing.  I thought about moving to the highland lakes area years ago before I got my job in Baltimore and settled down. They average like 65” and are guaranteed at least 40” almost every year except that absolute dreg awful 1/10 years and even then they manage to get like 25-30 usually.  You wanna pine for snow areas that’s worth it. Why be jealous of a place that gets like 3” more then you do?   Seriously it’s not like you would really be happy, think about it. In a typical year say you got 19” instead of 16”...I bet you would still be more focused on the fact somewhere 20 miles NW of Philly got 40”!  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

^^^^ there is another onboard. Train is filling up

I, and the Euro, are not buying a train ticket.  GFS is like that clown from IT in the sewer:  Come closer...come on in....

[psuhoffman]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Obviously the two you want in your corner when the chips are down.

Which ones do we want in our corner again? 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mattie g said:

You took my post a little too seriously.

Like you, I grew up in South Jersey, so I’m very well aware of the climo up there.

Didn’t know. Sorry 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Which ones do we want in our corner again? 

The 12k NAM and the 3k NAM

[jaydreb]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor if we want to be jealous be jealous of N NJ. Once you hit N NJ and get some elevation and west of the NYC UHI the climo changes radically. Snow averages skyrocket from like 25” to 50”+ over 20 miles!  Ice fishing is a regular thing.  I thought about moving to the highland lakes area years ago before I got my job in Baltimore and settled down. They average like 65” and are guaranteed at least 40” almost every year except that absolute dreg awful 1/10 years and even then they manage to get like 25-30 usually.  You wanna pine for snow areas that’s worth it. Why be jealous of a place that gets like 3” more then you do?   Seriously it’s not like you would really be happy, think about it. In a typical year say you got 19” instead of 16”...I bet you would still be more focused on the fact somewhere 20 miles NW of Philly got 40”!  

Yeah, my sister lives in Morris County, NJ, and they do very well.   They often overperform with storms where they aren’t forecast to get much because they are primary beneficiaries of the north trend that we despise so much.  They got 30”+ from the Jan 28/Feb 1 storm. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The 12k NAM and the 3k NAM

And until they come in range?  Btw don’t forget they had a cutter for yesterday from 84 hours. They saw the warm layer but they were awful on the rest of the synoptic setup. 

[psuhoffman]

There are 3 waves in close proximity from Thursday to Monday next week. They will all influence each other. I have no confidence in any solution but there is a decent chance one clips us. It wouldn’t shock me if it ends up the 3rd one that right now looks like an amped up cutter given seasonal trends. 

[ravensrule]

1 hour ago, jayyy said:

Que @ravensrule

I have matured greatly in the past 24 hours and have taken @stormtracker and @mappy's advice. Trust me i had to bite my tongue hard though. 

[RevWarReenactor]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@RevWarReenactor if we want to be jealous be jealous of N NJ. Once you hit N NJ and get some elevation and west of the NYC UHI the climo changes radically. Snow averages skyrocket from like 25” to 50”+ over 20 miles!  Ice fishing is a regular thing.  I thought about moving to the highland lakes area years ago before I got my job in Baltimore and settled down. They average like 65” and are guaranteed at least 40” almost every year except that absolute dreg awful 1/10 years and even then they manage to get like 25-30 usually.  You wanna pine for snow areas that’s worth it. Why be jealous of a place that gets like 3” more then you do?   Seriously it’s not like you would really be happy, think about it. In a typical year say you got 19” instead of 16”...I bet you would still be more focused on the fact somewhere 20 miles NW of Philly got 40”!  

I could go on forever addressing this post and the other, but It would be banter. I don't get jealous of North NJ snowfall because I understand its a different climate up there,The area outlined should be a jealously zone because generally speaking they get the same amount give or take 5 inches. But lately, it is extremely lopsided, its like a different climate up there this year. This year the northeast end of that is at 40 inches, the southern end is at, a few?

Is it bad luck? Or is something happening down here?

 

 

 

[osfan24]

3 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Agreed, just hoping it comes in early as possible. You guys in better spot then up here timing wise

If I had a dollar every time you said that this year............

[eurojosh]

7 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I could go on forever addressing this post and the other, but It would be banter. I don't get jealous of North NJ snowfall because I understand its a different climate up there,The area outlined should be a jealously zone because generally speaking they get the same amount give or take 5 inches. But lately, it is extremely lopsided, its like a different climate up there this year. This year the northeast end of that is at 40 inches, the southern end is at, a few?

Is it bad luck? Or is something happening down here?

 

 

 

more fail line than fall line amiright

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I could go on forever addressing this post and the other, but It would be banter. I don't get jealous of North NJ snowfall because I understand its a different climate up there,The area outlined should be a jealously zone because generally speaking they get the same amount give or take 5 inches. But lately, it is extremely lopsided, its like a different climate up there this year. This year the northeast end of that is at 40 inches, the southern end is at, a few?

Is it bad luck? Or is something happening down here?

 

 

 

But that isn’t all one climo zone. The southern end of your tail averages about 15” and parts of the northeast end about 27!   The climate zones run war more ENE then you have them NE there. The exception is along the fall line and then the ridges where elevation changes cause a NE snow climo change. But once you get to the coastal plain the snow averages run more West to east! 

[RedSky]

25 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said:

I could go on forever addressing this post and the other, but It would be banter. I don't get jealous of North NJ snowfall because I understand its a different climate up there,The area outlined should be a jealously zone because generally speaking they get the same amount give or take 5 inches. But lately, it is extremely lopsided, its like a different climate up there this year. This year the northeast end of that is at 40 inches, the southern end is at, a few?

Is it bad luck? Or is something happening down here?

 

 

 

Howell in the northeast part of that phallus has around 20" and freehold 25". It does need to point ENE to Atlantic City. 

[blizzardmeiser]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

DC beat Philly in 2019 and both had barely any snow in 2020. Philly will win this year. But it’s not as lopsided as perception. Thing is when DC/Balt misses to the north they often assume everyone north of them did great when often the north trend screwed Philly some too. They may have done marginally better but not as good as people in here think.  Then when we beat Philly like in several storms in 2010 and 2014 and 2015 and 2016 and 2019 people don’t even notice.  I grew up 15 miles from Philly in S NJ. My climo was same as south Philly and I was about 10 miles due east of the airport and my totals almost always matched Philly Int. Where I lived in N VA near Herndon was better for snow. Trust me.  Philly was better then downtown DC though. Kind of on par with the DC NW burbs. But there is this perception Philly climo is way better and like mine up here. It isn’t. I spent 15 years there complaint the same way people here do when 9/10 storms screwed me over and I got 1” slop to rain while 20 miles NW was getting 4-8” or more. Same thing. 

Spot on. But W and N of Philly have done very well this year. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I, and the Euro, are not buying a train ticket.  GFS is like that clown from IT in the sewer:  Come closer...come on in....

Suit yourself. But as time goes on, ticket prices go up. And seating becomes limited. You might find yourself sharing a sleeper car with Ji

[jacindc]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Suit yourself. But as time goes on, ticket prices go up. And seating becomes limited. You might find yourself sharing a sleeper car with Ji

I think he has a bus he can drive if he needs to.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, jacindc said:

I think he has a bus he can drive if he needs to.

Shit, that bus hasn’t had wheels in 5 years.