psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM 28 hours the heights are a little lower in front and the wave is further south in Texas. So a slight positive trend early. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM has the ULL further west in SE Canada. Looks like heights in the midwest are not as high as 18z. Slightly flatter through 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 NAM a little flatter in front vs 18z, but nothing like Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Still noticeable differences at 39. More confluence to the north. Wave less amplified and further south. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Definitely flatter out in front, stronger push from confluence up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:18 AM, stormtracker said: Definitely flatter out in front, stronger push from confluence up top. Expand Yea it’s definitely a step. Might not get all the way there this run. It was so crazy divergent it could take 2 steps and still be 50 miles north of the globals lol. But it’s a positive trend so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:18 AM, stormtracker said: Definitely flatter out in front, stronger push from confluence up top. Expand I guess it really might be possible that the nam was way off the rails and is crawling towards where every single other reliable and unreliable model already is. Didnt see that coming 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:19 AM, psuhoffman said: Yea it’s definitely a step. Might not get all the way there this run. It was so crazy divergent it could take 2 steps and still be 50 miles north of the globals lol. But it’s a positive trend so far. Expand Yup. Prob won't get it done this run, but it's a good sign that it's moving toward the other models slowly, but surely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:19 AM, Bob Chill said: I guess it really might be possible that the nam was way off the rails and is crawling towards where every single other reliable and unreliable model already is. Didnt see that coming Expand I'm def shocked. At 51, precip field is definitely smooshed more toward the East vs 18z. Smooshed is a meteorological term btw. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Trends over last 5 on H5 panel at hr 39 12km over Canada due north of us ... is this something to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awilson Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:24 AM, stormtracker said: I'm def shocked. At 51, precip field is definitely smooshed more toward the East vs 18z. Smooshed is a meteorological term btw. Expand Wait till you see 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 You're welcome all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:27 AM, Awilson said: Wait till you see 54 Expand Just saw it. Like I said, NAM might not get there, but it's clearly heading the right way. Feeling a lot better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Snow at 57 in DC we did it boys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Starts as snow in Winchester at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Snow spreading into the metro area approx 3-4am Thur. Temps in the 20s. Still warm 750 and up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 I mean it is pretty close to a complete cave at this point. 60 is a mauling. 63 is some of the heaviest sleet I have ever seen. 850's are way south of us though. It is so close to a snow crushing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 The real question is when does the rug get pulled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:29 AM, EHoffman said: Snow at 57 in DC we did it boys Expand We sure did. But you said....... nevermind. let's just be happy 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Very nice shift east with the max axis of precip. It will be there by 12z tomorrow in time for the thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 We'd all be better off just acknowledging that the nam took a couple tabs of acid earlier, is now coming down off the trip, and not analyzing anything beyond that. 9 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sleet in DC, Snow north of like Germantown at 60. With the steps toward globals, should By 12z tomm, should be snow in DC......famous last words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:30 AM, jewell2188 said: The real question is when does the rug get pulled? Expand If you follow the seasonal trend 30-36 hrs lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Holy sleet bomb 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:30 AM, jewell2188 said: The real question is when does the rug get pulled? Expand This seems different. Trending the right way leading in not deteriorating. But just in case I removed any and all rugs from my house. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:30 AM, jewell2188 said: The real question is when does the rug get pulled? Expand 12z tomorrow when Randy starts the thread #superstitions 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 7am Th 18Z v 0Z, step in right direction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:32 AM, Bob Chill said: We'd all be better off just acknowledging that the nam took a couple tabs of acid earlier, is now coming down off the trip, and not analyzing anything beyond that. Expand Thats your paint peeler on the nam...Holy Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 On 2/16/2021 at 2:33 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: If you follow the seasonal trend 30-36 hrs lead time. Expand What's the matter Ralph is your area not in the good snow for this one yet? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2021 Share Posted February 16, 2021 Sleet bomb for everyone at 63,,,way wetter than 18z so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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