SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Ahh the PWC jackpot 3 days out...I haven’t fallen for that one in at least a week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Lets face it- this is all about the front end. This is a GOOD look right here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion. 8 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Man the RGEM is a catastrophic ice storm for southern VA. 1.3 inches of zr falling into the low to mid 20's. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Here's where I think the disconnect between you and leesburg today is rooted. A few short days ago this was an abject failure and barely discussion worthy. Globals quickly and unexpectedly set the hook with arguably too bullish of snow solutions with front end. It's fun to consider but I think everyone knows high end results are full of peril. Plenty of people have said as much. But when the nam did what it did at 12z, you drilled down to the subatomic level of why it might be right and why we should seriously worry. Well, we're all appropriately worried already imo and just having some fun. But man PSU, you really sunk the nail this AM with nam analysis. And now with my quoted post it's either high end results or bust. And that's totally fine and you have every damn right on earth and venus to feel such a way. Just don't expect us all to feel the same away about it. It does have the feel that your goal may be that. Maybe I'm out to lunch and I probably am but my read of the room comes to that conclusion. Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CorgitoWX Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Ahh the PWC jackpot 3 days out...I haven’t fallen for that one in at least a week It's gonna happen this time man. Believe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I still need another 50 miles or so on most guidance in general to feel good about a few inches on the front end. On the NAM I need 250. Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Also a bit amusing that the person w supposedly the most season to date snowfall in the sub outside of the far western areas is telling us that a 2-4” snow to ice event is pathetic. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I’m just rooting for snow. I don’t care how much. Measurable, not falling and melting, more than 2 hours of crap rates snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. Trying to figure how that was any step to the NAM, especially in low track. I mean, was a little warmer at onset vs 12z but it didn't look anything like the NAM. That being said, RGEM can eat it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, H2O said: I’m just rooting for snow. I don’t care how much. Measurable, not falling and melting, more than 2 hours of crap rates snow Amen brotha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yeah, this. I can't believe that anyone seriously believes or is seriously looking for, an area-wide 6-12" event, especially in the metro DC area (I suspect PSU is being a little snarky with his comment, too). Fun to talk about or even get a little excited at the prospect, sure. Of course, if the models continue throwing that at us even as it's on our doorstep, then sure. But that aside, a solid thump of snow would be great. I don't mind that it will mix or change to sleet and ice, and completely expect that in this situation. My hope is that we can minimize (or even eliminate?) warming up and then getting dumped on with rain. This here is my bar for this...For a storm that a few days ago looked like all rain, I think this is a healthy goal to have. I'm okay with thump to sleet/ice...at least the snowcover will still be there afterward! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 56 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild That's more than a warm nose. It's more like a nose and lips! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Notice we are saying the exact same things but due to stylistic differences how we express it changes how it’s perceived. Lol And people can say they are good with a compromise (and yea if it ends up going that way fine and I’ll take what we get. No choice anyways. But come on everyone is rooting for the 6”+ thump snow. We might accept less but we want to see everything trend to the globals not compromise with the BS the NAM is spitting out. Screw the NAM. Globals hold the line damnit. Don’t give an inch. Force the NAM into unconditional unmitigated surrender. I guess my expectations were so low I just have no reason to hand wring over how this goes. My snowpack died today for the most part, so nothing to protect, and given the hostile look for the coastal plain just a few days ago, whatever frozen I get I am fine with. The NAM might have the right idea, and if it does, so be it. Then I get 90% rain as I expected anyway lol. Given the trends on almost all other guidance though, I think it is most likely the NAM being the NAM at range, and is probably out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Well, I can say this much...GFS definitely not taking any steps whatsoever toward the NAM. If anything it moved a little more S and a bit colder 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 hour ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild I think I see the virgin mary 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Well, I can say this much...GFS definitely not taking any steps whatsoever toward the NAM. Looks a tick more suppressed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Gfs looks better across the board with heights/temps etc leading into onset. Still got that trend going in our favor. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 That high on the GFS moved into a much better position. This could be the one... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, BristowWx said: Looks a tick more suppressed Yup. It'll give us some cushion when it starts moving back north 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Colder still at 75-78. Turned to rain in DC at 12z...still frozen on this run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Looks a tick more suppressed Uhoh? @psuhoffman fringed? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gfs looks better across the board with heights/temps etc leading into onset. Still got the trend going in our favor. Thumpier and snowier and souther with the snow than 12Z. Great run and keeps mby in snow longer down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I love your guys location for this one. With the exit side of thr trough trending more progressive the initial fronto aimed right at you. Should make for a fun morning. Usually big wide open gulf events like this you’d expect NAM to be N. It should cave soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 By HR84 on the 18z GFS, 00z Friday, the surface low is in interior South Carolina and the 700mb temps are still below freezing from EZF to the Bay Bridge. Much colder than the 00z, 06z, and 12z runs from today. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para should be interesting given that its dad upped the cold game 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 congrats @usedtobe 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Good run, if you ignore the dumb snow maps. Actually took snow away from me and placed it further south. Who cares. Good thump and cold when it counts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 GFS looks like just about all frozen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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