WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 14 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild Is that a sounding or an EKG? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We really need Ender to come back on here and tell us why the NAM is right. He was really good at that when we were all getting our hopes up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM wants to be stubborn. Yes it took a baby step early but it’s not even close. It’s off by over 100 miles on where it places that band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I just can't believe we went into this winter freaking out when the Euro was the only model not on board to now where we freak out when the NAM is the only one not on board. 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Agreed. 600 models vs 1 is definitely cause for consternation and a complete breakdown. Lol id like the hottest weather model this winter to be in my corner 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, leesburg 04 said: We really need Ender to come back on here and tell us why the NAM is right. He was really good at that when we were all getting our hopes up All we need is Ellinwood's first map to sufficiently deflate everyone except our friends from the sticks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 We really need Ender to come back on here and tell us why the NAM is right. He was really good at that when we were all getting our hopes upYou've kind of become our ender 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueberryfaygo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Comparing the NAM to the GFS.. the nam has a line of thunderstorms extending far north of the primary low pressure in the gulf states. I think it is picking up on a stronger low over the ohio valley: here: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: NAM wants to be stubborn. Yes it took a baby step early but it’s not even close. It’s off by over 100 miles on where it places that band of snow. 100 miles? Pffft. That's less than 1 NAM run away to correct. 1000 miles is a red flag tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Any other year we would say the NAM is out to lunch and toss. But this is the one year where it's caught on to things before the others. It's been alone before this year but the others have caved. Will that repeat this time or is it simply mishandling some piece of data that the others don't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I do expect the nam to cave but every run that continues its stubbornness raises my aniexity level 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Nice discussion(as usual) from Mount Holly- Thursday: A rather nice (if you like wintry weather) sfc configuration will be in place over our area on Thursday with a robust cold high positioned north of the area, with the resulting NE flow creating a nice CAD setup. However, the upper-lvls will be a bit less favorable, with the the H5 trough-ridge configuration being shifted a bit west of the "textbook" positioning. This results in a slightly more westward track of the surface/850 lows, with the consensus track of the sfc. low being just offshore of the NJ coast on Thursday night, while the 850 wave would pass overhead. All that being said, the trend over the last couple days has definitely been colder with this system with the east coast ridge trending flatter and the northern High trending stronger with each guidance cycle. Consequently this setup would likely result in a general thump of snow Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon, before warmer air arrives aloft and we see ptypes transition from S-N to sleet/freezing ran/rain Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The main questions now are how long-lasting and powerful that initial "thump" of snow is, and also how quickly the column warms . Given a solid 600-700mb FGEN signature in the warm advection regime, along with increasing UL divergence in the right entrance region of the northern jet, would not be surprised if the initial snow-thump packs a punch, and many locations could pick up several inches of snow fairly rapidly on Thursday. Given the robust CAD setup would also not be surprised if many locations NW of I-95 never get above freezing and thus see only frozen precipitation during the entirety of the event. This scenario would also largely alleviate any hydro concerns as the warm temperatures/rain would not fall on the areas with the healthiest snowpack. The one real dissident solution to the general evolution described above is the NAM, which has the system more amplified and further west, and as a result has a howling (70+kt) SWrly 700mb jet moving through the area early Thursday. This results in rapid warm advection aloft, with a very quick transition to sleet and thus limited snow accumulations, with also a fairly pronounced dry slot. The NAM can certainly act as the "canary in the coal mine" for warm nose potential in these setups so it can`t be discounted off hand. However, at the same time feel it is sufficiently at odds with the consensus synoptic evolution that it was largely ignored in this package. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 25 minutes ago, high risk said: I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier". Careful apparently letting the NAM spook you wrt mid level warmth qualifies as “going off the rails” to some ( @leesburg 04 ) around here. I agree is probably just an outlier. It’s not stringing out the energy like the globals and that allows the primary to amplify and push everything to our NW. Its so different from everything else (except the SREF which like that idea too). If I HAD to bet I would favor the globals but I don’t feel great with the NAM showing that. Given all the recent let downs I’d like to have it on board before letting myself get overly optimistic about the big snow totals being indicated by everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 RGEM a bit warmer on the front end but basically remains the same in terms of trajectory. Nothing like the NAM. Hell of a sleet bomb after the changeover. Looks longer duration and wetter too. It can still eat it though. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Amped said: 33 and rain with a .21 chance of and EF2+ based on LCL. Can you translate that second part to English? I can't read the right hand panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ji said: I do expect the nam to cave but every run that continues its stubbornness raises my aniexity level nobody noticed you're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Para-ECMWF trending in the right direction too. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: Any other year we would say the NAM is out to lunch and toss. But this is the one year where it's caught on to things before the others. It's been alone before this year but the others have caved. Will that repeat this time or is it simply mishandling some piece of data that the others don't? This is just my rule of thumb and anecdotal. When meso's have 2 events in their range to deal with, it's always best to wait until the first one is out of the picture before fretting solutions that are vastly different than the globals beyond that. The whole time/compounding error thing can often go haywire with mesos. Also, meso's biggest value is short range and not mid. Still a day or more away from being in the short range. Not saying the NAM wont nail it. Just that if you're trying to actually forcast and not weenie out, a blend of guidance and much less weight on outliers helps keep your job 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Careful apparently letting the NAM spook you wrt mid level warmth qualifies as “going off the rails” to some ( @leesburg 04 ) around here. I agree is probably just an outlier. It’s not stringing out the energy like the globals and that allows the primary to amplify and push everything to our NW. Its so different from everything else (except the SREF which like that idea too). If I HAD to bet I would favor the globals but I don’t feel great with the NAM showing that. Given all the recent let downs I’d like to have it on board before letting myself get overly optimistic about the big snow totals being indicated by everything else. You're welcome for pointing out your flaws, hopefully you become a better poster for it because now you at least admit that it spooked you and you weren't "just" interpreting the model 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I posted in the wrong thread but ICON is a decent thump from like 13z-19z....keeps temps in 20s thru 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, Baltimorewx said: I posted in the wrong thread but ICON is a decent thump from like 13z-19z....keeps temps in 20s thru 0z pics or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Icon actually tic'd colder at onset. Screw the NAM 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 100 miles? Pffft. That's less than 1 NAM run away to correct. 1000 miles is a red flag tho 12z was about 250 miles so definitely trending in right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I see two camps. One wants to be reasonable and chuck the NAM. The other is ready to jump. I'm going to put this out there before the rest of 18z starts rolling in because I don't want to seem like I'm just rolling with the waves. When the mesos start trying to pull the globals back to reality, the writing is on the wall. I like where we're at right now considering where we were at two days ago, but to underestimate the NAM at this point--which I've tried to mention many times this winter is a good model--would be foolish. This just isn't a setup that's very conducive for us. We're lucky to have this shunting mechanism but it can only do so much. We're still threading the needle. Maybe I'm playing my own sublimation game and overcompensating to protect myself, but I think it's a pretty big stretch to hope for WSW criteria at this point. For me, I'm just happy if we get a storm that produces water in frozen form to any extent. Anything more than that is icing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: RGEM a bit warmer on the front end but basically remains the same in terms of trajectory. Nothing like the NAM. Hell of a sleet bomb after the changeover. It can still eat it though. The rgem is acceptable. But it was a baby step towards the NAM. That’s not something I want to see. Frankly I don’t want signs they will “compromise”. A compromise is a minor snow to ice event. No thanks. I signed up for the euro/para/uk 6-12” of snow package. I’m not settling for some pathetic run of the mill 2-4” to mix event. 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I still need another 50 miles or so on most guidance in general to feel good about a few inches on the front end. On the NAM I need 250. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Most all of the models, with the exception of one not to be NAMed, have surface temperatures barely budging through much of the day on Thursday. Takes a pretty stout CAD to pull that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Pretty big improvement on ICON compared to 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Icon actually tic'd colder at onset. Screw the NAM We don't get NAMed anymore, we merely get runs that would be deemed ICONic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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