stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Regardless of if the NAM gets it done or not, we know that far western track is probably wrong since it's going toward the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the consensus.. we do not have it yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 There isn't even a front end bump to be snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 18z NAM still does not want to board the train to Thumpville 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Regardless of if the NAM gets it done or not, we know that far western track is probably wrong since it's going toward the other models NAM'ped effect. I like everything I see today. It's fair to be skeptical of the juiced up solutions. Still in the range where models have consistently overdone QPF. In the grand scheme we only care how juicy the front side is tho. 2 tenths per hour QPF may not verify but it should come in like a wall this time around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 NAM still on some ol bullshit 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: NAM is the ice storm we do not want. Still on its own I think, but not where we want it! We need the consensus.. we do not have it yet! It’s really not much of anything. The bulk of the precip is shoved so far N and W it misses most of this sub before temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, high risk said: 18z NAM still does not want to board the train to Thumpville What's your verdict/thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 The NAM is strengthening the primary in Ohio. That’s not what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: What's your verdict/thoughts I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Globals giving us a snowstorm and the NAM giving us a squall line Thursday night lol. If it were any other season I'd be laughing at the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, high risk said: I think that we should be all be spooked at least a little, but it's just so darned different from pretty much everything else that I'm still going with "synoptic outlier". Yeah, that's where I am. It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out. NAM's got plenty of time to get it together. Guess we'll see if the other 18z now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: My guess is the 12z globals are prob too snowy and the NAM is prob too nammy so middle of the road is where my head is at. Seems very unlikely all globals + ens are very wrong with the front side and also seems unlikely the NAM is very right with the NW push. Anything is possible but the difference isnt small and it's still the NAM beyond 48. We'll see how the rest of 18z looks. Probably best to just expect a typical late Feb mediocre setup slopstorm and anything better than that is gravy. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Absolutely wild 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, that's where I am. It's nagging to be sure, but I'm not going to freak out. NAM's got plenty of time to get it together. Guess we'll see if the other 18z now. we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 *The storm that caused the NWS to reconsider its decision to retire the NAM or why one shouldn't look at mesoscale output until within 48 hours? *Just kidding of course, it isn't really being retired because of performance 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 what a deflating run and ruined a good day. Yikes. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Out of curiosity, given how far apart NAM was from globals in 12z suite -- did anyone really expect it to completely cave? Isn't a partial cave kinda good news? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ji said: we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks Thru 48, it was much better in the mids. That's where I stop believing the nam. Especially in the face of overwhelming guidance to the contrary with the storm itself. There are times to freak out on the NAM. For me, this isnt even close to one of them. Now if all of 18z goes that way, I'll see ya next winter 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I'm old enough to remember when being NAM'd was a good thing... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, The Dude said: I'm old enough to remember when being NAM'd was a good thing... It still is a good thing…… inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ji is in panic mode. Means we’re still in the game, folks! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 As is the NAM is still a pretty nasty ice storm for the NW burbs. Half inch of ZR is no joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, Ji said: what a deflating run and ruined a good day. Yikes. There is something the matter with you. 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, Ji said: we havent had consensus for anything all year but the least snowy solution has typically won out. this sucks Agreed. 600 models vs 1 is definitely cause for consternation and a complete breakdown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Absolutely wild 33 and rain with a .21 chance of and EF2+ based on LCL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: There is something the matter with you. It took you this long to realize that. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 I think the NAM is right, I was convinced earlier. Even today's great GFS run showed 63 degrees on 2/27... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: There is something the matter with you. Which in itself is fine and why Ji is Ji and also why I like the guy. The problem here is he's very contagious and the only vaccine is snow. Basically I'm saying there is no cure 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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