Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, gymengineer said: The way I am thinking about Thursday is these snow to sleet to freezing rain (to rain or dryslot) events happen with some regularity in our area. We often do fine on the front end thump for 2-4” for DC metro. Sometimes we get a pleasant overperformer like 12/14/03 or 2/25/07 where it’s more like 4-5”. Maybe the best all-time would be 2/21/05 where I received 7+” in North Bethesda and upper MoCo hit a foot. What the GFS is putting out for the first 12-hrs of QPF is very anomalous... in that all-time category type of way. I hope it verifies for sure, but I would be satisfied with a more typical event. Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Warnings make it snow more Not for DC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If not now, definitely later. If not later, this place will become a padded room. Not sure what outcome I really want to see... hmmm... decisions... Randy said I couldn't leave him this week, so I will have to vote for the non-padded room version to keep my sanity. 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Warnings make it snow more thats what I hear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, LP08 said: is another tick south Easy. You’ll trigger PSU. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: The time for revenge is always close by Will LWX post warnings before you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But again, the factually correct post that you gave a weenie to stands. Yes, the NAM has had the hot hand and with other storms, it was the first to show things falling apart. But in every case, it was a follow the leader thing, all the others models started to cave to it. That's not happening this time. NAM is alone. Now if the Euro goes west, then year, that's when I worry. I don;t like having the NAM on board either, but I don't think it's time for the whoa is me posts quite yet, because this isn't the same as before. Still time to go that way tho. Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: The time for revenge is always close by Talk happiness. The world is sad enough without your whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Been here since 2012, live in RVA now but have so much respect for all of you. Is it safe to say the models have continued to trend colder the past 48 hours for Thursday and folks in Richmond should really start being concerned about a repeat form Sat/Sun on Thursday for an ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2021 Author Share Posted February 15, 2021 If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Whoa. Don't start a thread until it starts snowing. We don't want to jinx another event, like whoa guys 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, EHoffman said: Make no mistake, when we get our 5" on Thursday I'm finding where you live and throwing a snowball at you. There's going to be too much snow to even make it up that hill on Conn. Ave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, H2O said: Not for DC I think it makes it trend worse if it is a warning but better if it is an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, mappy said: Talk happiness. The world is sad enough without your whoa There will be so much whoa when a storm thread is started and everything goes NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? I say 00z Thursday just to be safe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? thinking tomorrow at the earliest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? In all seriousness, was going to make one after the Euro.......tomorrow. 12z tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? Woe there. Slow down. Still too soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: In all seriousness, was going to make one after the Euro.......tomorrow. 12z tomorrow Not a good idea 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 11 minutes ago, EHoffman said: NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo. Like I said, I hope I'm wrong. Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years. Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads" I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. It is a straight up crush job for the NW burbs. Winchester Pummeled. Wow. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Even talking about a thread makes me nervous... the snow gods are going to think we're getting cocky 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 1 minute ago, gymengineer said: Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. Snow will accumulate during daylight hours much better if there's just the slightest base formed overnight. I believe that's what happened if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Ukie looks like 6" on the front end too. I still stan for the King NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 Never gets above freezing during the event, might actually be pretty much all snow verbatim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Not a good idea Keep us posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. It is a straight up crush job for the NW burbs. Winchester Pummeled. Wow.Ukmet has been all over this 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 12 hours ago, stormtracker said: Yes. Yes I do. I thought of this last night made me laugh. Planes, Trains, and Automobiles. When the cop asked Del if he thought the melted car was safe for highway travel he said that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads" I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! Your memory probably isn't correct, I've never been a solid poster. That said, I agree where you're coming from and it's certainly an intriguing event. And the globals are certainly looking awesome. I just try to factor in DC climo and try to keep in mind we've had literally every storm go to shit for us <48 hrs from game time and I'm trying to keep a level head and not get overly excited. Definitely one of those storms where I won't believe it until it's actually happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2021 Share Posted February 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. Damn..I thought we hit our peak possibilities yesterday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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